Methods of fitting the Fisher-Tippett type 1 extreme value distribution

Methods are described for estimating the parameters of the Fisher-Tippet Type 1 extreme value distribution and associated return values from measured extremes, such as maximum wave height. A comparison of these methods, with simulated data, shows that those using Gumbel's plotting position are least satifactory. Maximum likelihood methods give the smallest mean square errors, but the very much simpler method of moments is nearly as good.     

Modelling of the spectral characteristics of the wind wave envelope

A method applied for the determination of the statistical characteristics of the wind wave envelope is considered. It is shown that the correlation function envelope for a normal random process defines the basic properties of the process envelope and it can be expressed through the spectrum width. No limitations are imposed on the form or the width of the spectrum. The model is effective for a developing and steady sea disturbance when the attenuation of the temporal correlation function can be approximated by an exponent. Numerical computations and experimental results for typical cases of sea disturbance are compared.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Relationship between the anomalies of temperature and air pressure over the ocean

This paper considers the relationship between multi-year air temperature and pressure fluctuations over the ocean, based on an approximate solution of the problem on the determination of large-scale seawater temperature anomalies from the conditions predominating at the sea surface. The dependence derived is numerically analysed using observations made in the North Atlantic. It is shown that the variability of annual mean air temperature anomalies is largely controlled by the air pressure field which has taken place during the preceding long-term period. The dependence derived may be applied to generate long-term forecasts of the ocean's hydrometeorological regime.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Some General Properties of Transverse Motions of the Geostrophic Front

Within the framework of the reduced-gravity model of the ocean taking into account the effect of friction in the Rayleigh form, we study the two-dimensional problem of nonlinear motions of a subsurface front of finite width. We consider the conservation laws and the character of motion of the center-of-mass of the cross section of the front and their variations caused by the losses of energy. For fields with special structure, the problem is reduced to the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the initially geostrophic frontal current decays with time according to a power law. The deviations of the initial state of the front from the state of geostrophic balance result in the generation of superinertial oscillations of the hydrodynamic fields.     

Variability of demographic parameters and population dynamics of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in a southwest French river

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Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea

The trend in Irish Sea nutrient concentrations over the last four decades has been considered to reflect changes in anthropogenic loading. Comparison of a long-term database for the Menai Strait, North Wales, with an established historic data set for the Cypris station, Isle of Man, indicates that climate also has a significant influence on observations of nutrient concentrations. Data are presented detailing long-term shifts in nitrate, phosphate and silicate measurements since the 1960s at these two fixed sampling sites in the Irish Sea. Broad systematic changes observed in all three nutrients over the decades show a rise from the 1960s through to the 1980s, followed generally by an overall decline in the 1990s. Decadal-scale salinity changes occur in the opposite sense to nutrient changes. Anthropogenic inputs from freshwater cannot fully account for observed nutrient trends, neither is there evidence for shifts in nutrient concentrations in oceanic waters over the past four decades. Climatically forced movement in the geographical position of the freshwater/seawater mixing zone over a decadal time scale could, however, give rise to the observed shifts in nutrient concentration and salinity. This cannot alter nutrient concentration and salinity per se, but causes the measurements taken at fixed sampling sites to fluctuate inversely over this time scale. It is concluded that there is complex interplay between anthropogenic loading and climate affecting the distribution of nutrients in the Irish Sea.