Present warming within the context of cooling–warming cycles observed since 1854 in the Bay of Biscay

The warming trend observed during the last decades in the Bay of Biscay is put within the context of sea surface temperature (SST) changes observed in the area since 1854. Macroscopically, two consecutive warming–cooling cycles were detected during this period of time: cooling from 1867 to 1910; warming from 1910 to 1945; cooling from 1945 to 1974; and warming from 1974 to nowadays. Warming rates of 0.17 and 0.22 °C per decade were measured during the warming sub-periods and cooling rates of ?0.14 and ?0.10 °C per decade were measured during the cooling sub-periods. The present warming period is on the same order of magnitude although slightly more intense than the one observed from 1910 to 1945, which is consistent with previous analysis carried for the North Atlantic. Finally, the thermal amplitude defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum annual values has increased since 1974 at a rate of 0.06 °C per decade due to the different increasing rates of the maximum (0.26 °C per decade) and minimum (0.20 °C per decade) SSTs.     

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Abstract— Jull et al. propose an alternative interpretation of our depth vs. ¹⁴C data measured on a peat core from the central Tunguska impact site (Rasmussen et al., 1999). We find that the proposed alternative is untenable.     

Mapping Baltic Sea shallow water environments with airborne remote sensing

It is known that the structure of benthic macrophyte and invertebrate habitats indicate the quality of coastal water. Thus, a large-scale analysis of the spatial patterns of coastal marine habitats makes it possible to adequately estimate the status of valuable coastal marine habitats, provide better evidence for environmental changes, and describe the processes behind the changes. Knowing the spatial distribution of benthic habitats is also important from the coastal management point of view. Our previous results clearly demonstrated that remote sensing methods can be used to map water depth and distribution of taxonomic groups of benthic algae (e.g., red, green, and brown algae) in the optically complex coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. We have as well shown that benthic habitat mapping should be done at high spatial resolution owing to the small-scale heterogeneity of such habitats in Estonian coastal waters. Here we tested the capability of high spatial resolution hyperspectral airborne image in its application for mapping benthic habitats. A big challenge is to define appropriate mapping classes that are also meaningful from the ecological point of view. In this study two benthic habitat classification schemes??broader level and finer level??were defined for the study area. The broader level classes were relatively well classified, but discrimination among the units of the finer classification scheme posed a considerable challenge and required a careful approach. Benthic habitat classification provided the highest accuracy in the case of the Spectral Angle Mapper classification method applied to a radiometrically corrected image. Further processing levels, such as spatial filtering and glint correction, decreased the classification accuracy.     

Structure of the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer over Smooth and Rough Bottoms

The comparison of six well-known models of the wave bottom boundary layer shows that they are identical in the case of a smooth bottom but exhibit serious differences for the other types of conditions. The thickness of the wave bottom boundary layer and the coefficient of vertical diffusion of momentum are studied by using the relations of the k-ε-model. The validity of these estimates is checked by comparing the measured and computed values of the friction velocity. This comparison demonstrates fairly good agreement between the results characterized by a coefficient of correlation equal to 0.851. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 54–67, November–December, 2005.     

Tropospheric lapse rate and its relation to surface temperature from reanalysis data

Estimates of the tropospheric lapse rate γ and analysis of its relation to the surface temperature T _s in the annual cycle and interannual variability have been made using the global monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948–2001). The tropospheric lapse rate γ is about 6.1 K/km in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as a whole and over the ocean and about 6.2 K/km over the continents. The value of γ decreases from 6.5 K/km at low latitudes to 4.5 K/km at polar latitudes. The values of dγ/dT _s, the parameter of sensitivity of γ to the variation of T _s for the NH in the interannual variability, are found to be about 0.04 km^?1 (0.041 km^?1 for the NH as a whole, 0.042 km^?1 over the ocean, and 0.038 km^?1 over the continents). This corresponds to an increase in γ of approximately 0.7% when the surface temperature of the NH is increased by 1 K. Estimates of dγ/dT _s vary from about 0.05 km^?1 in the subtropics to 0.10 km^?1 at polar latitudes. When dγ/dT _s is positive, the surface and tropospheric warming means a temperature decrease above a certain critical level H _cr. The height of the level H _cr with constant temperature, which is defined by the inverse value (dγ/dT _s)^?1, is about 25 km for the NH as a whole, i.e., above the tropopause. In the subtropics, H _cr is about 20 km. At polar latitudes, H _cr decreases to about 10 km. Positive values of dγ/dT _s characterize a positive climatic feedback through the lapse rate and indicate a general decrease in the static stability of the troposphere during global warming. Along with a general tendency of γ to increase with rising T _s, there are regional regimes with the opposite tendency, mainly over the ocean. The negative correlation of γ with T _s is found over the oceanic tropics and midlatitudes, in particular, over the oceanic belt around Antarctica.     

Recharge and pollution of the english chalk: Some possible mechanisms

Pore water in the Chalk is likely to remain essentially static under the influence of environmental forces with the exception of evapotranspiration. A process of piston displacement of water through networks of microfissures provides a possible mechanism for downward percolation through the unsaturated Chalk.

Maintenance of continuous diffusion equilibrium between fissure and pore water throughout downward migration allows the explanation of the observed rates of movement for thermonuclear tritium in the unsaturated zone. Activation of increasingly large fissures with increasing infiltration rates explains observed rapid water-table response under conditions of sustained high inflow, and is consistent with the behaviour of water quality parameters in the saturated aquifer. Whereas in the unsaturated zone it is suggested that 80 to 90% of total flow passes through microfissures, in the saturated aquifer fluid transport is essentially through macrofissures. Diffusion equilibrium between pore water and fissure water in the saturated zone is not therefore expected.

Individual macrofissures occasionally are enlarged by solution, making it possible for a large proportion of saturated flow to take place through relatively few preferential flow channels. Although the macrofissures, and particularly enlarged macrofissures, are largely responsible for aquifer transmissivity, microfissure storage may often be highly significant in terms of specific yield.     

P–T–t–d evolution of orogenic middle crust of the Roc de Frausa Massif (Eastern Pyrenees): a result of horizontal crustal flow and Carboniferous doming?

Structural, petrological and textural studies are combined with phase equilibria modelling of metapelites from different structural levels of the Roc de Frausa Massif in the Eastern Pyrenees. The pre‐Variscan lithological succession is divided into the Upper, Intermediate and Lower series by two orthogneiss sheets and intruded by Variscan igneous rocks. Structural analysis reveals two phases of Variscan deformation. D1 is marked by tight to isoclinal small‐scale folds and an associated flat‐lying foliation (S1) that affects the whole crustal section. D2 structures are characterized by tight upright folds facing to the NW with steep NE–SW axial planes. D2 heterogeneously reworks the D1 fabrics, leading to an almost complete transposition into a sub‐vertical foliation (S2) in the high‐grade metamorphic domain. All structures are affected by late open to tight, steeply inclined south‐verging NW–SE folds (F3) compatible with steep greenschist facies dextral shear zones of probable Alpine age. In the micaschists of the Upper series, andalusite and sillimanite grew during the formation of the S1 foliation indicating heating from 580 to 640 °C associated with an increase in pressure. Subsequent static growth of cordierite points to post‐D1 decompression. In the Intermediate series, a sillimanite–biotite–muscovite‐bearing assemblage that is parallel to the S1 fabric is statically overgrown by cordierite and K‐feldspar. This sequence points to ~1 kbar of post‐D1 decompression at 630–650 °C. The Intermediate series is intruded by a gabbro–diorite stock that has an aureole marked by widespread migmatization. In the aureole, the migmatitic S1 foliation is defined by the assemblage biotite–sillimanite–K‐feldspar–garnet. The microstructural relationships and garnet zoning are compatible with the D1 pressure peak at ~7.5 kbar and ~750 °C. Late‐ to post‐S2 cordierite growth implies that F2 folds and the associated S2 axial planar leucosomes developed during nearly isothermal decompression to <5 kbar. The Lower series migmatites form a composite S1–S2 fabric; the garnet‐bearing assemblage suggests peak P–T conditions of >5 kbar at suprasolidus conditions. Almost complete consumption of garnet and late cordierite growth points to post‐D2 equilibration at <4 kbar and <750 °C. The early metamorphic history associated with the S1 fabric is interpreted as a result of horizontal middle crustal flow associated with progressive heating and possible burial. The upright F2 folding and S2 foliation are associated with a pressure decrease coeval with the intrusion of mafic magma at mid‐crustal levels. The D2 tectono‐metamorphic evolution may be explained by a crustal‐scale doming associated with emplacement of mafic magmas into the core of the dome.     

Klastische und pyroklastische Sedimente des Südharzer Rotliegenden

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Late Devensian environments in the Vale of Mowbray, North Yorkshire, UK: evidence from palynology

Two radiocarbon-dated Lateglacial pollen diagrams from the Vale of Mowbray (northern Vale of York) are presented from sites in the lowlands between the washlands courses of the rivers Swale and Ure in North Yorkshire, an area with little previous palynological research despite its proximity to the Devensian glacial advance limits in eastern England. The profiles, from Snape Mires and Nosterfield, include the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas) and the Holocene transition, while that from Snape Mires also includes the period from the early part of the Lateglacial Interstadial. This profile differs from most published Interstadial diagrams from the Yorkshire region in having a long-delayed expansion of tree and shrub taxa. Juniperus (juniper) remains important after vegetation development takes place and the pollen record includes evidence of two cold climate oscillations before the maximum development of Betula (birch) woodland near the end of the Lateglacial Interstadial. At both profiles Artemisia (mugwort) frequencies are lower during the Loch Lomond Stadial than at many regional sites, probably due to edaphic factors in these lowland locations. The two sites provide valuable environmental data that enable comparison between the more wooded Lateglacial vegetation to the south in the Vale of York and Humberside and the more open contemporaneous vegetation to the north in the Durham and Northumberland lowlands.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.