Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically DownscaledPredictors： Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.     

Campanian Climatic Change: Isotopic Evidence from Far East, North America, North Atlantic and Western Europe

Paleoclimatic settings have been reconstructed for the Campanian using original oxygen-isotopic analyses of well-preserved molluskan and foraminifera shells from Russian Far East, Hokkaido, USA, Belgium and some DSDP holes (95, 98, 102, 390A, and 392A) in North Atlantic. Early Early Campanian climatic optimum has been recognized from data on high bottom shelf water paleotemperatures in middle latitudes of both the western circum-Pacific (to 24.2°C) and the eastern circum-Pacific (to 26.4°C) areas and high bottom shallow water paleotemperatures in high latitudes of the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), which agrees with the data on the Campanian Barykovskaya flora in high latitudes (Golovneva and Herman, 1998) and Jonker flora and its equivalents in middle latitudes. Judging from the data on comparatively high bottom shallow water paleotemperature values in high latitudes, South Alaska (19.4°C) and the Koryak Upland (22.4–25.5°C), we also expect Latest Campanian temperature maximum, which has not been confirmed, however, for low and middle latitudes by neither of isotopic nor paleobotanic data now. Main climatic tendency during the Campanian (with the exception of Latest Campanian) has been learned from isotopic composition of Campanian aragonitic ammonoid shells from the Hokkaido-South Sakhalin (Krilyon) marine basin. In contrary to Huber’s et al. (2002) assumption, we expect warm greenhouse conditions during the most part of the Campanian.     

Mechanical compression release device in steel bracing system for retrofitting RC frames

1 Introduction Braced steel frames are commonly used to resist seismic loads. Their seismic behavior was extensively studied during the past decades (Bertero et al.., 1989; Roeder, 1989; Jain, 1978). Their design is governed by the buckling behavior of the bracing members (ASCE, 1994,2002; CSA, 1994). To prevent or delay the seismic buckling of compressive members in concentrically braced frames in steel structures, a great number of methods have been proposed. These include the use of sp…     

汉诺坝玄武岩及大同火山群的岩石学和同位素地球化学

利用主元素、造岩矿物、REE及Sr、Nd、Pb同位素资料,对汉诺坝玄武岩和大同火山群的岩石学、地球化学、地幔源区特征、岩浆的分异和演化、玄武岩岩浆活动的构造条件进行了讨论。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001290

The Three Gorges Dam(TGD) of the Yangtze River.China,is one of the largest irrigation and hydroelectric engineering projects in the world.The effects of huge man-made projects like TGD on fauna and macrophyte are obvious,mainly through changes of water dynamics and flow pattern;however, it is less clear how microorganisms respond to such changes.This research was aimed to examine differences in microbial diversity at different seasons and locations(in front of and behind the TGD).In addition, differences between particle-attached and free-living communities were also examined.The community structures of total and potentially active microorganisms in the water columns behind and in front of the TGD were analyzed with the DNA- and RNA-based 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic approaches over three different seasons.Clone libraries of 16S rRNA genes were prepared after amplification from extracted DNA and.for some samples,after preparing cDNA from extracted rRNA.Differences were observed between sites at different seasons and between free-living and particle-attached communities.Both bacterial and archaeal communities were more diverse in summer than in winter, due to higher nutrient levels and warmer temperature in summer than in winter.Particle-attached microorganisms were more diverse than free-living communities,possibly because of higher nutrient levels and heterogeneous geochemical micro-environments in particles.Spatial variations in bacterial community structure were observed,i.e..the water reservoir behind the TGD(upstream) hosted more diverse bacterial populations than in front of the dam(downstream),because of diverse sources of sediments and waters from upstream to the reservoir.These results have important implications for our understanding of responses of microbial communities to environmental changes in river ecosystems affected by dam construction.     

Trace elements in skin of Dall's porpoises (Phocoenoides dalli) from the northern waters of Japan: an evaluation for utilization as non-lethal tracers

Concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Se, Mn, Mo, Hg, Cd, Cr, Ag, Pb, Sr and V were determined in skins of Dall's porpoises (Phocoenoides dalli) of the Pacific coast truei-type population (PT population) (N=45), and the Sea of Japan-Okhotsk dalli-type population (JD population) (N=31) from the northern waters of Japan. Cutaneous Hg concentrations in both PT and JD populations were significantly correlated with age, indicating a possible alternative method of age estimation. A significant correlation was also noted between Hg concentrations in skin and liver, suggesting that biopsy samples of skin can provide a non-lethal surrogate for monitoring Hg contamination in this species. Trace element accumulation patterns differed strongly between PT and JD populations, when analyzed by principal component analysis, suggesting these patterns could be utilized as non-lethal tracers of population identification.     

Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.     

自然金属矿物组合的标型

自然金属是能指示成矿作用氧化还原电位的矿物。自然界的自然金属有三种矿物组合:(1)在熔体中结晶出来的磷化物、氮化物、碳化物和硫化物的镍铁组合(镍纹石和铁纹石),它们都具陨石标型;(2)伴生有铬尖晶石和铁、钛复杂氧化物的含陨硫铁、陨碳铁和自然铜的含纯镍混入物的铁组合,它们都是线状岩石、陨石和地球玄武岩的标型;这些组合反映了橄榄石、尖晶石、钛铁矿和其它矿物固相线以下的分解反应;(3)伴生有石英、碳酸盐等成分的含碳化