Ecosystem Modeling Adds Value to a South African Climate Forecast

Livestock production in South Africa is limited by frequent droughts. The South African Weather Service produces climate forecasts estimating the probability of low rainfall three and six months into the future. We used the ecosystem model SAVANNA applied to five commercial farms in the Vryburg region of the North-West Province, and five communal areas within the Province, to assess the utility of a climate forecast in refining drought coping strategies. Rainfall data from 1970 to 1994 were modified to represent a drought (225 mm of rainfall) in 1977/1978, and used in simulations. In a simulation on an example commercial farm we assumed a forecast was available in 1977 portending an upcoming drought, and that the owner sold 490 cattle and 70 sheep prior to the drought. Over the simulation period, the owner sold 31% more cattle when the forecast was used,versus when the forecast was ignored. Populations of livestock on both commercial and communal farms recovered more quickly following the drought when owners sold animals in response to the forecast. The economic benefit from sales is being explored using optimization techniques. Results and responses from South African livestock producers suggest that a real-time farm model linked with climate forecasting would be a valuable management tool.     

Climatic soil moisture deficit - climate and soil data integration in a GIS

This paper discusses a GIS based implementation of a model for soil droughtiness assessment evaluating the impact of possible climate change. It focuses, in particular, on the development of a methodology for mapping Available Water Capacity. An assessment of the Soil Drought Susceptibility for Scotland in the year 2030 is made and illustrated with maps and derived statistics.     

Holocene river development and environmental change in Upper Wharfedale,Yorkshire Dales,England

This paper provides the first radiometrically dated evidence of Holocene alluvial landform development in Upper Wharfedale, Yorkshire Dales. Four river terraces are identified. Terraces 1 and 2 are closely linked to Late Devensian and early Holocene environmental change, with gravel reworked from local glacial and periglacial sources prior to cementation by carbonate‐rich waters. U‐series dating of cement provides age estimates for cementation of between ca. 5.1–7.4 kyr BP for Terrace 1 and ca. 3.6–>8.0 kyr BP for Terrace 2. U‐series dating of tufas overlying Terraces 1 and 2 produced ages of ca. 4.2–4.5 kyr BP and ca. 2.1–2.2 kyr BP respectively, and provide upper age limits for terrace formation. Terrace 3 marks a change in sediment calibre, supply and sedimentation style, and ¹⁴C dating suggests that the principal source of fine‐grained material may be agricultural expansion in the Yorkshire Dales from ca. ad 600 (1350 cal. yr BP). Radiocarbon dates indicate that Terrace 4 was deposited from the eleventh century, with initiation of the contemporary floodplain between the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries ad. Both these lowest units contain sediments contaminated with heavy metals as a result of mining activities within the catchment. The evidence presented in this study is comparable to that of research undertaken in upland environments elsewhere in northern and western Britain, thereby adding to the corpus of information currently available for evaluating the fluvial geomorphological response to climate and vegetation change during the Holocene. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

10–100 keV electron acceleration and emission from solar flares

We present an analysis of spacecraft observations of non-thermal X-rays and escaping electrons for 5 selected small solar flares in 1967. OSO-3 multi-channel energetic X-ray measurements during the non-thermal component of the solar flare X-ray bursts are used to derive the parent electron spectrum and emission measure. IMP-4 and Explorer-35 observations of > 22 keV and > 45 keV electrons in the interplanetary medium after the flares provide a measure of the total number and spectrum of the escaping particles. The ratio of electron energy loss due to collisions with the ambient solar flare gas to the energy loss due to bremsstrahlung is derived. The total energy loss due to collisions is then computed from the integrated bremsstrahlung energy loss during the non-thermal X-ray burst. For > 22 keV flare electrons the total energy loss due to collisions is found to be 10⁴ times greater than the bremsstrahlung energy loss and 10² times greater than the energy loss due to escaping electrons. Therefore the escape of electrons into the interplanetary medium is a negligible energetic electron loss mechanism and cannot be a substantial factor in the observed decay of the non-thermal X-ray burst for these solar flares.We present a picture of electron acceleration, energy loss and escape consistent with previous observations of an inverse relationship between rise and decay times of the non-thermal X-ray burst and X-ray energy. In this picture the acceleration of electrons occurs throughout the 10–100 sec duration of the non-thermal X-ray burst and determines the time profile of the burst. The average energy of the accelerated electrons first rises and then falls through the burst. Collisions with the ambient gas provide the dominant energetic electron loss mechanism with a loss time of 1 sec. This picture is consistent with the ratio of the total number of energetic electrons accelerated in the flare to the maximum instantaneous number of electrons in the flare region. Typical values for the parameters derived from the X-ray and electron observations are: total energy in > 22 keV electrons total energy lost by collisions = 10^28–29 erg, total number of electrons accelerated above 22 keV = 10³⁶, total energy lost by non-thermal bremsstrahlung = 10²⁴erg, total energy lost in escaping > 22 keV electrons = 10²⁶erg, total number of > 22 keV electrons escaping = 10^33–34.The total energy in electrons accelerated above 22 keV is comparable to the energy in the optical or quasi-thermal flare, implying a flare mechanism with particle acceleration as one of the dominant modes of energy dissipation.The overall efficiency for electron escape into the interplanetary medium is 0.1–1% for these flares, and the spectrum of escaping electrons is found to be substantially harder than the X-ray producing electrons.Currently at Tokyo Astronomical Observatory, Mitaka, Tokyo, Japan.     

The Kotipu Place Observatory APT

Carter Observatory's Celestron-14 APT has been redeveloped and reinstalled at the Kotipu Place Observatory. Information on this operation is presented, together with an example of data acquired by the instrument.     

Change and adaptation in four rural communities in New England,NSW

The negative image created by a preoccupation with population losses in some rural areas and the decline in some economic and service functions in many small country towns has masked the considerable improvements which have occurred there. Insufficient attention has been given to the raised level of living in many rural locations which has increased the attraction of a rural lifestyle. Local shire councils have played an important role in enhancing the quality of local life through investment in new town facilities, and residents record a high level of community satisfaction. Although past social and economic roles are changing in rural locations, new functions are emerging in four settlements in New England, NSW, and this is facilitating their adaptation to a changing rural environment.     

Spatial relations between preflares and flares

We have conducted an initial search for discrete preflare brightenings as observed in soft X-radiation by Yohkoh. The Yohkoh images allow us to identify, to within a few arc seconds, the location of a preflare event relative to the succeeding flare. Our initial motivation in this study was to search for early coronal brightenings leading to flare effects, as had been suggested by earlier studies; thus we concentrated on Yohkoh limb events. We find no evidence for such early coronal brightenings. Between 15% and 41% of the 131 suitable events matched our criteria for preflare brightening: the same active region; brightening within one hour of the flare peak; preflare brightness less than 30% of the flare peak. In the great majority of the preflare cases, we found that physically separate nearby structures brightened initially. Often these structures appeared to share a common footpoint location with the flare brightening itself. In a few cases the preflare could have occurred in exactly the same structure as the flare.