Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole

This study investigates the decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. It is found that the long-term IOD index displays a decadal phase variation. Prior to 1920 negative phase dominates but after 1960 positive phase prevails. Under the warming background of the tropical ocean, a larger warming trend in the western Indian Ocean is responsible for the decadal phase variation of the IOD mode. Due to reduced latent heat loss from the local ocean, the western Indian Ocean warming may be caused by the weakened Indian Ocean westerly summer monsoon. The interannual air-sea coupled IOD mode varies on the background of its decadal variability. During the earlier period （1948-1969）, IOD events are characterized by opposing SST anomaly （SSTA） in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, with a single vertical circulation above the equatorial Indian Ocean. But in the later period （1980-2003）, with positive IOD dominating, most IOD events have a zonal gradient perturbation on a uniform positive SSTA. However, there are three exceptionally strong positive IOD events （1982, 1994, and 1997）, with opposite SSTA in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an El Nifio event. Consequently, two anomalous reversed Walker cells are located separately over the Indian Ocean and western-eastern Pacific; the one over the Indian Ocean is much stronger than that during other positive IOD events.     

A semi-analytical model of barotropic and baroclinic flows for an open Panama Gateway

A semi-analytical model of the Panama throughflow is presented. The model expresses the throughflow transport as a function of deep water formation in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, and of the Panama Gateway depth. The model is derived from the integral of the momentum equation along a circumpolar path, and can be interpreted from the point of view of the vorticity balance. The important conditions are whether the deep water, whose location is considered to be above the bottom water formed around Antarctica, originates from the North Atlantic or from the North Pacific, and whether the Panama Gateway is shallower than the lower boundary of the deep water. The present model indicates that the barotropic transport through the Panama Gateway is eastward, except for the case where the deep water is formed in the North Pacific and the sill of the Panama Gateway is shallow. The baroclinic structure of the Panama throughflow depends on whether the deep water is formed in the North Pacific or in the North Atlantic. These qualitative implications of the model are consistent with recent numerical studies and proxy-based paleoceanographic studies. Numerical experiments performed in the present study reinforce confidence in the semi-analytical model.     

基于GODAS数据的西太平洋暖池热状态特征及其对ENSO事件的影响

利用1981—2011年共31 a美国GODAS月平均次表层海温资料,以5~366 m次表层垂直平均海温表征上层海洋热含量(HC),运用合成、相关等统计学方法,分析了西太平洋暖池(以下简称暖池)热状态气候特征及其对ENSO事件的影响。结果表明:暖池区HC异常变化最大,异常变化最大的区域与其高值中心区域并不重合,而是在经向上向其两侧偏离;暖池区HC季节变化与SST季节变化高度一致,年际变率大于SST的年际变率;暖池热状态与ENSO事件有密切联系,最大冷(暖)异常恰好对应于ENSO循环过程中的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)事件,并且ENSO事件前期暖池HC存在明显东传信号。     

江苏水稻障碍型冷害时空变化特征及敏感性分析

利用江苏35站1961—2014年的气象观测数据和水稻产量数据,基于ArcGis软件统计分析了水稻关键生育期内低温冷害的时空变化特征和敏感性。结果表明：（1）低温冷害总次数呈现“北多南少”的总体特征,20世纪70年代发生的冷害次数最多,21世纪00年代为第二高值期;（2）全省低温冷害持续天数主要是3～6 d,其中持续3 d的比重最大,平均占50%左右,淮北存在6 d以上的低温冷害过程,但比重基本不足10%,淮北遭遇低温冷害的时间要早于淮南,淮南基本上都是在9月上旬才会发生;（3）低温冷害总体发生几率存在“北大南小”的特征,年代际波动明显,20世纪70年代的发生几率最大,21世纪00年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最小;（4）江苏西北部低温冷害强度最强,21世纪00年代低温冷害强度最强,20世纪70年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最弱;（5）江苏中部是水稻对低温冷害的高敏感地区。     

Projections of Extreme Rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st Century

The possible changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong in the 21st century wereinvestigated by statistically downscaling 30 sets of the daily global climate model projections (involvinga combination of 12 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios,namely,A2,A1B,and B1) of theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.To cater for the intermittentand skewed character of the daily rainfall,multiple stepwise logistic regression and multiple stepwise linearregression were employed to develop the downscaling models for predicting rainfall occurrence and rainfallamount,respectively.Verification of the simulation of the 1971-2000 climate reveals that the models ingeneral have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong.Theprojection results suggest that,in the 21st century,the annual number of rain days in Hong Kong is expectedto decrease while the daily rainfall intensity will increase,concurrent with the expected increase in annualrainfall.Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean,the annual number of rain day is expected todrop from 104 days in 1980-1999 to about 77 days in 2090-2099.For extreme rainfall events,about 90% ofthe model-scenario combinations indicate an increase in the annual number of days with daily rainfall 100mm (R100) towards the end of the 21st century.The mean number of R100 is expected to increase from 3.5days in 1980-1999 to about 5.3 days in 2090-2099.The projected changes in other extreme rainfall indicesalso suggest that the rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century may also become more extreme with moreuneven distributions of wet and dry periods.While most of the model-emission scenarios in general projectconsistent trends in the change of rainfall extremes in the 21st century,there is a large divergence in theprojections among different model/emission scenarios.This reflects that there are still large uncertainties inmodel simulations of future extreme rainfall events.     

Damage evaluation and conservation treatment of the tenth century Korean rock-carved Buddha statues

This study focuses on the lithological characterization, quantitative deterioration assessment and conservation treatment of the tenth century rock-carved Buddha statues in Korea. The Buddha statues were carved on light gray macrocrystalline biotite granite, and features microcline phenocrysts and pegmatite patches. The rock-forming minerals are quartz, plagioclase, microcline and biotite showing micrographic and porphyritic textures. Feldspars and biotite in the host rock have been partly altered into sericite and chlorite by weathering. The surface of the Buddha statues is remarkably irregular due to granular disintegration and the differential weathering of the quartz and microcline. In addition, horizontal and vertical cracks in the host rock have promoted mechanical weathering. Biological colonization of the statues was serious, and featured dark gray and yellowish green lichen, dark green bryophyte and some plants. The Buddha statues were evaluated as the highly weathered rock by ultrasonic survey. The lower parts under the influence of water and areas with severely broken surfaces showed a much more advanced weathering grade. Therefore, scientific conservation treatment was carried out for the long-term maintenance and conservation of the Buddha statues. After pretests, dry, wet and chemical cleanings were applied to the statues. Next, joining of cracked parts and surface consolidating were executed. Finally, the site environment was improved by installation of drain and trimming trees around the statues to ensure more stable long-term conservation.     

一例由蓄水诱发的库岸边坡变形

加拿大Oldman坝的库岸边坡主要由近水平、互层的砂岩及泥岩构造，自1993年开始蓄水以来库岸边坡一直处于变形之中。文章在简介区域地质条件、工程地质条件和水库蓄水诱发变形的基础上，对变形诱发机制进行了讨论。基于监测资料分析：（1）由于水库库边坡的卸荷裂隙十分发育， 提供了快速的水力通道， 蓄水期水对库岸边坡稳定存在不利影响；（2）该例的泥岩不存在膨胀性；（3）库岸边坡变形是由于水的快速渗透导致有效应力降低和泥岩软化，库岸边坡应力重新调整引起的；（4）对于软岩边坡，特别是库岸软岩边坡变形稳定分析比强度稳定分析更重要。     

极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标构建及近60年来长江流域极端气候综合分析

本文利用经过均一化订正的长江流域共669个气象站近60年(1961—2020年)逐日观测资料,采用相对阈值和绝对阈值相结合的极值分析方法,对长江流域近60年极端高温事件、极端低温事件、极端干旱事件和极端降水事件进行识别,分析了年发生频率和线性变化趋势.在此基础上,考虑到全国极端气候事件发生情况,构建了多个极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标,比较客观地给出了长江流域极端气候事件综合危险性等级.研究结果表明,相对于全国其他地区,长江流域大部分地区极端气候综合危险性等级较高,虽然自1961年以来综合年发生频率呈现弱的线性减少趋势,但自20世纪90年代以来,长江流域极端气候事件发生的危险性相对于全国其他地区明显偏高.通过对不同极端气候事件危险性和变化规律研究,结果表明：长江流域近60年极端干旱事件年发生频率呈现线性减少趋势,与全国他其区域相比较,长江流域大部分地区极端干旱发生的危险性等级都在中级以上,说明长江流域容易发生极端干旱事件;长江流域近60年极端降水事件年发生频率呈现弱的增加趋势,危险性等级指数分析表明,高危险区主要位于长江中下游地区,湖南西部、江西大部、湖北南部等地发生极端降水事件的危险性很高;近60年长江流域大部分地区极端高温事件显著增加,尤其进入21世纪以来发生更加频繁,但相对于全国其他地区,危险性等级较低;近60年长江流域极端低温事件显著减少,但相对于全国其他地区,极端低温事件发生的危险性增加明显.进入21世纪以来,长江流域极端气候事件的综合危险性不断增加,极端高温和极端干旱相伴而生的高温干旱复合型事件频繁发生,极端降水事件和极端低温事件在全国的占比不断升高,造成的社会经济影响越来越严重,说明长江流域加强极端气候事件风险防范的重要性和紧迫性.

     

双能X射线骨密度仪技术进展综述

骨质疏松的日趋严重使得骨密度的测量越来越受到人们的关注。随着医疗技术的不断进步,双能X射线骨密度仪以其精确的测量结果,较低的辐射剂量以及多种类多型号,被广泛运用于骨质疏松的诊断中。本文介绍骨密度的概念、测量方法和部位,重点介绍双能X射线骨密度测量的基本原理和关键技术。通过不同的分类方法对现有双能X射线骨密度仪进行分析和阐述,并通过硬件和软件对目前双能X射线骨密度仪存在的问题进行分析,对未来该技术的发展趋势进行了讨论和预测。     

流体包裹体烃类组成特征及对天然气成藏示踪作用——以鄂尔多斯盆地西北部奥陶系为例

通过对鄂尔多斯盆地西北部奥陶系克里摩里组和马四储层溶孔中充填的方解石以及重结晶作用形成的白云石中烃类包裹体鉴定和组成分析认为该区奥陶系储层中气态烃包裹体比较丰富,占30％～40％,以甲烷含量占绝对优势,甲烷含量一般分布在49．2％mol～61．7％mol之间,重烃含量很低,表明该区曾经发生过天然气的运移聚集。应用热爆裂法打开包裹体对气态烃碳同位素进行了分析,包裹体中甲烷碳同位素比值分布在-34．7‰～-40．0‰,平均为-37．1‰,乙烷碳同位素比值分布在-29．0‰～-31．0‰之间,平均为-30．1‰,包裹体气体碳同位素比较轻,可能主要为高演化阶段的油型气。另外,该区的古地温史模拟数据和测定的包裹体均一温度分布对比研究表明天然气充注期在早白垩世。