A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology

Natural Hazards - We expand on existing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) approaches by presenting a methodology wherein the epistemic uncertainties associated with tsunami timing,...     

Metamorphic gradients in burial metamorphosed vesicular lavas: Comparison of basalt and spilite in Cretaceous basic flows from central Chile

Partial spilitization of a 9 km thick pile of flood basalts with highly vesicular flow tops gave rise to patterns of secondary mineralogy at different scales: (a) a local pattern of mineralogical variation from the almost unaltered bottom towards the altered top of each flow, and (b) an overall pattern, comparing flow tops throughout the pile, with changes in mineralogical composition within a sequence of metamorphic zones and facies. The local patterns mimic the trend of the overall pattern, but are of opposite direction and telescoped. Thus, a gradual ordering and Andepletion of the secondary albite and increases in the Fe^*/Al ratio of epidote and pumpellyite upwards within individual flows are comparable in range to corresponding overall changes downwards throughout several kilometres. The mineralogical changes within the flows diminish in range towards the more altered deeper part of the pile.The local and overall patterns cannot be interpreted in terms of grade. They represent trends from metastable towards stable equilibrium, this latter only approached in the flow tops of the lower part of the pile. The patterns of secondary mineralogy were formed by an interplay of metamorphic gradients at different scales at any given time, and as burial proceeded. The overall pattern was caused by depth-controlled gradients: increasing P _fluid, temperature and temperature-induced increase of reaction rates, and decreasing fO₂ (downwards in the pile). The local patterns resulted from permeability-controlled gradients: increasing reaction rates, fO₂ and contrast in chemical activity between different domains, and decreasing P _fluid (upwards in each flow). The mineralogical observations reported in this paper fall into line if the overall temperature-induced increase of reaction rates and the local permeability-controlled rate factors played the leading role during burial metamorphism of the pile.     

The Middle Jurassic radiolarites and pelagic limestones of the Nieves unit (Rondaide Complex, Betic Cordillera): basin starvation in a rifted marginal slope of the western Tethys

Middle Jurassic radiolarites and associated pelagic limestones occur in the Rondaide Nieves unit of the Betic Cordillera, southern Spain. The Rondaide Mesozoic includes: (a) a thick succession of Triassic platform carbonates, comparable to the Alpine Hauptdolomit and Kössen facies; (b) Lower Jurassic pelagic limestones comparable to the Alpine Hierlatz and Adnet facies; (c) the Middle Jurassic Parauta Radiolarite Formation, described herein; and (d) a thin Upper Jurassic-Cretaceous condensed limestone succession. The Parauta Radiolarite Formation and associated limestones were studied with respect to stratigraphy, petrography, micropalaeontology (radiolarians, calcareous nanno- and microfossils) and facies. Radiolarite sedimentation occurred in the Middle Bathonian in a restricted and dysoxic deep Nieves basin, perched in the distal zone of a continental margin fringing the Tethyan ocean. This margin was adjacent to a young narrow oceanic basin between the South-Iberian margin and a continental block called Mesomediterranean Terrane. The Nieves basin was part of a marine corridor between the Proto-Atlantic and Piedmont-Ligurian basins of the Alpine Tethys. The regional tectonic position, the stratigraphical evolution since the Triassic, the age and the nature of the Mesozoic facies and the palaeogeographic relations to adjacent domains show striking analogies between the Betic Rondaide margin and coeval units of the Alps.     

The Precambrian geology of El Cristo,southern Tandilia Region,Argentina

Metamorphic and granitoid rocks of the El Cristo area, southern part of Tandilia Range, are considered in terms of structural, lithological and geochronological data.The abovementioned area was affected before 2000 m. y. by a first tectono-thermal event that was followed by a second episode of intense SW-NE folding. The latter accompanied or followed by a metamorphism of almandine grade and strong synkinematic to latekinematic granitization during the span 1800-1520 m. y.Succeeding episodes of metamorphism and deformation were less intense and culminated in the local development of a 900 m. y. granite, chloritization and some brittle deformation.

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Zusammenfassung Tektonische, lithologische und geochronologische Daten der metamorphen und granitischen Gesteine der El Cristo Gegend im südlichen Teil des Tandilia Gebirges werden diskutiert.Vor mehr als 2000 Ma wurde dieses Gebiet erstmals von einem tektonothermalen Ereignis erfa\t, gefolgt von einer zweiten Episode starker SW-NE gerichteter Faltung. Letztere wurde begleitet oder gefolgt von einer Almandingrad Metamorphose und starker synbis spÄtkinematischer Granitisierung wÄhrend der Zeitspanne 1800 bis 1520 Ma.Darauffolgende Metamorphosen und Deformationsereignisse waren weniger intensiv und endeten um 900 Ma in Lokaler Granitintrusion, Chloritisierung und spröder Deformation.

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Résumé Des roches métamorphiques et granitoÏdes de la région de Cristo font ici l'objet d'une discussion sur la base de données structurales, lithologiques et géochronologiques.La région mentionnée a été marquée d'abord, il y a plus de 2000 millions d'années, par une phénomène thermo-tectonique, suivi, dans une seconde phase, d'un plissement important dirigé SO-NE. Celui-ci a été accompagné ou suivi par un métamorphisme à almandin et par une intense granitisation syncinématique à tardicinématique au cours de la période 1800-1500 m. a.Des épisodes de métamorphisme et de déformation moins intenses s'ensuivirent, qui aboutirent au développement local, vers 900 m. a., d'une intrusion granitique, avec chloritisation et déformations cassantes.

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Taphonomy of guanaco bones in Tierra del Fuego

Guanaco carcasses are deposited in great quantities in Cabo San Pablo, Tierra del Fuego (Argentina), as a result of winter stress. Taphonomic studies indicate that the gnawing action of foxes on guanaco (Lama guanicoe) carcasses produces only very tenuous marks on the bones. Lack of sustained interest in the carcasses by carnivores results in slow disarticulation. The articulated and disarticulated bones are exposed to heavy trampling by guanacos, a process that produces vertical migration of small/dense bones and fracturing of the most weathered bones. An understanding of this ongoing process is important for local archaeology, since modern bones are migrating into archaeological contexts. A regional approach to taphonomy is the most appropriate instrument to solve this and other related problems.     

Multivariate geostatistical application for climate characterization of Minas Gerais State, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to assess for Minas Gerais the cokriging methodology, in order to characterize the spatial variability of Thornthwaite annual moisture index, annual rainfall, and average annual air temperature, based on geographical coordinates, altitude, latitude, and longitude. The climatic element data referred to 39 INMET climatic stations located in the state of Minas Gerais and in nearby areas and the covariables altitude, latitude, and longitude to the SRTM digital elevation model. Spatial dependence of data was observed through spherical cross semivariograms and cross covariance models. Box–Cox and log transformation were applied to the positive variables. In these situations, kriged predictions were back-transformed and returned to the same scale as the original data. Trend was removed using global polynomial interpolation. Universal simple cokriging best characterized the climate variables without tendentiousness and with high accuracy and precision when compared to simple cokriging. Considering the satisfactory implementation of universal simple cokriging for the monitoring of climatic elements, this methodology presents enormous potential for the characterization of climate change impact in Minas Gerais state.     

Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...     

Coastal vulnerability assessment based on video wave run-up observations at a mesotidal,steep-sloped beach

Coastal imagery obtained from a coastal video monitoring station installed at Faro Beach, S. Portugal, was combined with topographic data from 40 surveys to generate a total of 456 timestack images. The timestack images were processed in an open-access, freely available graphical user interface (GUI) software, developed to extract and process time series of the cross-shore position of the swash extrema. The generated dataset of 2% wave run-up exceedence values R ₂ was used to form empirical formulas, using as input typical hydrodynamic and coastal morphological parameters, generating a best-fit case RMS error of 0.39 m. The R ₂ prediction capacity was improved when the shore-normal wind speed component and/or the tidal elevation η _tide were included in the parameterizations, further reducing the RMS errors to 0.364 m. Introducing the tidal level appeared to allow a more accurate representation of the increased wave energy dissipation during low tides, while the negative trend between R ₂ and the shore-normal wind speed component is probably related to the wind effect on wave breaking. The ratio of the infragravity-to-incident frequency energy contributions to the total swash spectra was in general lower than the ones reported in the literature E _infra/E _inci > 0.8, since low-frequency contributions at the steep, reflective Faro Beach become more significant mainly during storm conditions. An additional parameterization for the total run-up elevation was derived considering only 222 measurements for which η _total,2 exceeded 2 m above MSL and the best-fit case resulted in RMS error of 0.41 m. The equation was applied to predict overwash along Faro Beach for four extreme storm scenarios and the predicted overwash beach sections, corresponded to a percentage of the total length ranging from 36% to 75%.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.