Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster

We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior estimates of spatially distributed covariate and random effects. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously used presence–absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative probabilities. To illustrate the model’s versatility, we compute absolute probability maps of landslide occurrences and check their predictive power over space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far. Our novel approach features a spatial latent effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model. For rainfall-induced landslides in regions where the raingauge network is not sufficient to capture the spatial distribution of the triggering precipitation event, this latent effect provides valuable imaging support on the unobserved rainfall pattern.     

Noble gas study of a philippinite with an unusually large bubble

Abstract— A philippinite with a large bubble (volume ?5 cm³) was crushed in a specifically constructed device under vacuum. The total pressure, the major gas components, and the concentration and the isotopic composition of noble gases in the trapped gas were measured. The total gas pressure was found to be low, ～10^?4 atm. Compared to terrestrial atmosphere, the abundances of He and Ne are considerably more enriched than the concentrations of the heavy noble gases. Unusually high ²⁰Ne/²²Ne and ²¹Ne/²²Ne ratios were measured in the bubble gas. These ratios are higher than values expected for any steady state process and are interpreted to reflect very fast nonsteady state diffusion in the early stages of tektite formation.     

Improving Bayesian analysis for LISA Pathfinder using an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of the LISA Pathfinder satellite. The method is based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a two-stage annealing treatment in order to ensure an effective exploration of the parameter space at the beginning of the chain. We compare two versions of the algorithm with an application to a LISA Pathfinder data analysis problem. The two algorithms share the same heating strategy but with one moving in coordinate directions using proposals from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the other uses the natural logarithm of some parameters and proposes jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix. The algorithm proposing jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix demonstrates a higher acceptance rate and a slightly better convergence towards the equilibrium parameter distributions in the application to LISA Pathfinder data. For this experiment, we return parameter values that are all within ～1σ of the injected values. When we analyse the accuracy of our parameter estimation in terms of the effect they have on the force-per-unit of mass noise, we find that the induced errors are three orders of magnitude less than the expected experimental uncertainty in the power spectral density.     

Authenticating the recovery location of meteorites: The case of Castenaso

Abstract— This forensic work aims to authenticate the recovery location of Castenaso, a 120 g ordinary chondritic (L5) meteorite reportedly found in 2003 along the sandy bank of the Idice Stream, near the village of Castenaso (Bologna, Emilia‐Romagna, Italy). Using the hypothesis that Castenaso was instead a hot‐desert meteorite, we conducted a comparative mineralogical and geochemical study of major weathering effects on European and Saharan ordinary chondrites as potential markers of the environment where Castenaso resided during its terrestrial lifetime. Inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS) data reveals that Castenaso is significantly enriched in Sr, Ba, Tl, and U, and suggests geochemical alteration in a hot‐desert environment. The alteration is minor: Castenaso is not coated by desert varnish and does not show significant light rare earth element (LREE) enrichment or loss of Ni and Co. The apparent contrast in size, morphology, and composition between the soil particles filling the external fractures of Castenaso and those from the bank of the Idice Stream observed under the scanning electron microscope (SEM) suggests that Castenaso did not reside at the reported find location. Abraded quartz grains (up to 1 mm in size) in Castenaso are undoubtedly from a hot‐desert eolian environment: they are well‐rounded and show external surfaces characterized by the presence of dish‐shaped concavities and upturned silica plates that have been subject to solution‐precipitation and subsequent smoothing. We therefore conclude that Castenaso is one of the many hot‐desert ordinary chondrite finds, probably from the Sahara, that is currently available on the market. This forensic work provides the scientific grounds for changing the name of this meteorite.     

Trails of solar system minor bodies on WFC/ACS images

In this paper, we analyse very short arcs of minor bodies of the Solar System detected on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Channel ACS images. In particular, we address how to constrain the Keplerian orbital elements for minor body detections, illustrating the method for two objects. One of the minor bodies left 13 successive trails, making it the most well-sampled object yet identified in the HST archive. Most interestingly, we also address the problem of ephemeris prediction and show that in the particular case of HST very short arcs the confinement window for subsequent recovery is significantly reduced to a narrow linear region, that would facilitate successive observations.     

Nickel abundance in stony cosmic spherules: Constraining precursor material and formation mechanisms

Abstract– We report bulk and olivine compositions in 66 stony cosmic spherules (Na₂O < 0.76 wt%), 200–800 μm in size, from the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica. In porphyritic cosmic spherules, relict olivines that survived atmospheric entry heating are always Ni‐poor and similar in composition to the olivines in carbonaceous or unequilibrated ordinary chondrites (18 spherules), and equilibrated ordinary chondrites (one spherule). This is consistent with selective survival of high temperature, Mg‐rich olivines during atmospheric entry. Olivines that crystallized from the melts produced during atmospheric entry have NiO contents that increase with increasing NiO in the bulk spherule, and that range from values similar to those observed in chondritic olivines (NiO generally <0.5 wt%) to values characteristic of olivines in meteoritic ablation spheres (NiO > 2 wt%). Thus, NiO content in olivine cannot be used alone to distinguish meteoritic ablation spheres from cosmic spherules, and the volatile element contents have to be considered. We propose that the variation in NiO contents in cosmic spherules and their olivines is the result of variable content of Fe, Ni metal in the precursor. NiO contents in olivines and in cosmic spherules can thus be used to discuss their parent body. Ni‐poor spherules can be derived from C‐rich and/or metal‐poor precursors, either related to CM, CI, CR chondrites or to chondritic fragments dominated by silicates, regardless of the parent body. Ni‐rich spherules (NiO > 0.7 wt%) that represent 55% of the 47 barred‐olivine spherules we studied, were derived from the melting of C‐poor, metal‐rich precursors, compatible with ordinary chondrite or CO, CV, CK carbonaceous chondrite parentages.     

Magnetic classification of stony meteorites: 3. Achondrites

Abstract— A database of magnetic susceptibility measurements of stony achondrites (acapulcoite‐lodranite clan, winonaites, ureilites, angrites, aubrites, brachinites, howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) clan, and Martian meteorites, except lunar meteorites) is presented and compared to our previous work on chondrites. This database provides an exhaustive study of the amount of iron‐nickel magnetic phases (essentially metal and more rarely pyrrhotite and titanomagnetite) in these meteorites. Except for ureilites, achondrites appear much more heterogeneous than chondrites in metal content, both at the meteorite scale and at the parent body scale. We propose a model to explain the lack of or inefficient metal segregation in a low gravity context. The relationship between grain density and magnetic susceptibility is discussed. Saturation remanence appears quite weak in most metal‐bearing achondrites (HED and aubrites) compared to Martian meteorites. Ureilites are a notable exception and can carry a strong remanence, similar to most chondrites.