A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.     

A tool for site prioritisation of marine protected areas under data poor conditions

A challenge of managing data poor fisheries lies in overcoming uncertainties associated with a lack of information on biological and socio-economic conditions. This paper focuses on site prioritisation for marine protected areas, a process that usually imposes moderate to heavy demands on data, time, local expertise, and funds. A fuzzy logic decision support tool for zoning marine areas that is suitable for use in data poor conditions is developed. This tool, the Protected Area Suitability Index (PASI), assesses the suitability of sites for protection based on fishers’ preferences for that site and the site’s conservation value. Only eight input attributes are required to run the PASI, which operates on a series of heuristic rules to estimate a site suitability score that ranges from 0 to 10, where 10 indicates that a site is highly suitable for being protected from fishing. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the PASI is relatively robust, and produces reliable results even as the system is degraded by the loss of data. Eighteen actively fished sites and 11 sites that are closed to fishing are assessed to evaluate how well the PASI is able to distinguish differences between sites. The estimated scores are significantly different (p<0.05), whereby non-fished sites are scored as being more suitable for protection than fished sites. The PASI can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate systematic marine spatial management under data poor conditions, especially in the task of identifying suitable sites for protection.     

Effet du vieillissement des céramiques poreuses sur leur capacité à évaluer la concentration de pesticide en solution

The soil solution sampling by ceramic cups allows pesticide transfer monitoring in the soil during long times. The ageing of material involves a bias in the sampling results. In laboratory, the comparison of two types of ceramic suction cups, new and installed in situ during four years, shows a modification of the hydrodynamic properties and a possible evolution of the adsorption capacity of the matrix. The passage rate, as well qualitative as quantitative, is better for the old material. Recommendations about site management are finally exposed. To cite this article: N. Domange et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Ion transport in porous media: derivation of the macroscopic equations using upscaling and properties of the effective coefficients

In this work, we undertake a numerical study of the effective coefficients arising in the upscaling of a system of partial differential equations describing transport of a dilute N-component electrolyte in a Newtonian solvent through a rigid porous medium. The motion is governed by a small static electric field and a small hydrodynamic force, around a nonlinear Poisson–Boltzmann equilibrium with given surface charges of arbitrary size. This approach allows us to calculate the linear response regime in a way initially proposed by O’Brien. The O’Brien linearization requires a fast and accurate solution of the underlying Poisson–Boltzmann equation. We present an analysis of it, with the discussion of the boundary layer appearing as the Debye–Hückel parameter becomes large. Next, we briefly discuss the corresponding two-scale asymptotic expansion and reduce the obtained two-scale equations to a coarse scale model. Our previous rigorous study proves that the homogenized coefficients satisfy Onsager properties, namely they are symmetric positive definite tensors. We illustrate with numerical simulations several characteristic situations and discuss the behavior of the effective coefficients when the Debye–Hückel parameter is large. Simulated qualitative behavior differs significantly from the situation when the surface potential is given (instead of the surface charges). In particular, we observe the Donnan effect (exclusion of co-ions for small pores).     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

Noble gas investigations of lunar rocks 10017 and 10071

The noble gases He, Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe and also K and Ba were measured in the Apollo 11 igneous rocks 10017 and 10071, and in an ilmenite and two feldspar concentrates separated from rock 10071. Whole rock K/Ar ages of rocks 10017 and 10071 are (2350 ± 60) × 10⁶ yr and (2880 ± 60) × 10⁶ yr, respectively. The two feldspar concentrates of rock 10071 have distinctly higher ages: (3260 ± 60) × 10⁶ yr and (3350 ± 70) × 10⁶ yr. These ages are still 10 per cent lower than the Rb/Sr age obtained by Papanastassiouet al. (1970) and some Ar⁴⁰ diffusion loss must have occurred even in the relatively coarse-grained feldspar.The relative abundance patterns of spallation Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe are in agreement with the ratios predicted from meteoritic production rates. However, diffusion loss of spallation He³ is evident in the whole rock samples, and even more in the feldspar concentrates. The ilmenite shows little or no diffusion loss. The isotopic composition of spallation Kr and Xe is similar to the one observed in meteorites. Small, systematic differences in the spallation Kr spectra of rocks 10017 and 10071 are due to variations in the irradiation hardness (shielding). The Kr spallation spectra in the mineral concentrates are different from the whole rock spectra and also show individual variations, reflecting the differences in target element composition. The relative abundance of cosmic ray produced Xe¹³¹ differs by nearly 50 per cent in the two rocks. The other Xe isotopes show no variations of similar magnitude. The origin of the Xe¹³¹ yield variability is discussed.Kr⁸¹ was measured in all the samples investigated. The Kr⁸¹/Kr exposure ages of rocks 10017 and 10071 are (480 ± 25) × 10⁶ yr and (350 ± 15) × 10⁶ yr, respectively. Exposure ages derived from spallation Ne²¹, Ar³⁸, Kr⁸³ and Xe¹²⁶ are essentially in agreement with the Kr⁸¹/Kr ages. The age of rock 10071 might be somewhat low because of a possible recent exposure of our sample to solar flare particles.