Sensitivity of tidal marshes as recorders of major megathrust earthquakes: constraints from the 25 December 2016 Mw 7.6 Chiloé earthquake,Chile

We present evidence of land-level change resulting from the 2016 M_w 7.6 Chiloé earthquake from tidal wetlands along the southern coastline of Isla de Chiloé, Chile, to test criteria for the detection of low-level, <0.1 m, coseismic land-level change. In order to record coseismic land-level change in tidal wetland sediments, both the creation and preservation thresholds must be exceeded. High-resolution diatom analyses of sediment blocks at two tidal marshes reveal that the 2016 earthquake exceeded the creation threshold and a statistically significant change in diatom assemblage is recorded. In contrast, the preservation threshold was not exceeded and the record of coseismic land-level motion is not preserved at any location visited. After nine months, interseismic and coseismic changes are statistically indistinguishable. The most sensitive part of the tidal wetland is not consistent between research locations, possibly as a result of changes in sedimentation after the earthquake. We compare records of change from great earthquakes in Alaska with the record from the Chiloé earthquake to explore the detection limit. We propose that coastal palaeoseismological records are highly likely to underestimate the frequency of major (M_w 7–8) earthquakes, with important implications for recurrence intervals and assessment of future seismic hazards.     

On the initial streakness of a dispersing tracer in two- and three-dimensional turbulence

If a spot of tracer is released into a turbulent flow, the peak concentration at some subsequent time will initially be much greater than that implied by a solution for the ensemble average concentration at fixed points. For two-dimensional turbulence three areas may be defined: (1) an area A_d related to the ensemble average concentration field; (2) an area A_p defined in terms of the relative dispersion of particles seeded into the patch after a short initial diffusion time; and (3) the area A_t occupied by tracer. It is argued that A_d grows linearly with time, whereas A_p and A_t grow exponentially; A_p faster than A_t. Thus, the concentration field is significantly streaky, even within the particle domain, until A_t becomes comparable with A_d. The time taken for this to occur is estimated; after this time, fluctuations about the ensemble average concentration field should not be greater than those given by a simple mixing length argument. In three-dimensional turbulence the volume V_t of the tracer domain grows much more rapidly than the volume V_p of the particle domain if the merging of streaks is ignored. However, V_t cannot be greater than V_p so streaks must merge and V_p can be used to provide a rough estimate of peak concentration, or concentration variance.     

PKS 1117+146: a new large compact symmetric object

We present 23-GHz MERLIN observations of the high-luminosity radio galaxy PKS 1117+146. The radio image obtained from these data shows, for the first time, a central weak component (designated C) that we identify as the core of the radio galaxy, and two outer components (designated N and S) which are the hotspots of the extended lobes observed at lower frequencies. Extended emission in components C and S is an indication of a possible jet connecting the core to the strongest component. The overall optical and radio properties of PKS 1117+146 are consistent with the source being classified as a compact symmetric object (CSO). We discuss this hypothesis, which would make PKS 1117+146 the largest CSO known so far.     

Optimal composite sample size selection, applications in geochemistry and remote sensing

Nearly all the data in exploration geochemistry and remote sensing represent composites. However, composites may arise implicitly or be created explicitly. Bearing in mind that a common exploration task is the classification of data as being above or below some predetermined threshold the size of the composite may be critical to the recognition of a relatively rare, subcomposite, anomalous event. Two approaches are developed, based on statistical, and cost-analytical considerations. The statistical model allows for spatial correlation in the data, of importance when sampling is undertaken continuously along a drill core or flight line. Tables are presented for optimal composite sample size selection based on both models. The procedure is illustrated by an example taken from a drilling program. In general, the cost-analytical model leads to smaller composites than the statistical model. When spatial independence may be assumed the cost-optimal composite sizes are almost always smaller than those suggested by the statistical approach.     

An analytical simulation of the geosynchronous plasma environment

A procedure for analytically simulating the parameters necessary to characterize the geosynchronous plasma is developed in terms of the daily A_p index and local time. Although based on a limited set of ATS-5 data, the simulation adequately models the simultaneous variations in the warm plasma (50 eV–50 keV) electron and ion populations during injection events. Developed primarily to estimate the varying potentials expected on a shadowed, electrically isolated surface, the simulation can also be employed in a variety of cases where knowledge of the general characteristics of the geosynchronous plasma is necessary.     

Magnesium in continental runoff

A mass balance for Mg in continental runoff has been constructed. The sources of runoff Mg in this model are cyclic salts, carbonate rock and silicate rock weathering. The calculations indicate that the Mg concentration reported for average continental runoff is anomalously high. The anomaly may be due to recent disturbances in the weathering regimes of calcite, dolomite and silicates, or to unreliable Mg concentrations reported in older analyses.     

Recolonization patterns of benthic assemblages after relict sand dredging in the central Tyrrhenian sea

Recolonization patterns of benthic assemblages after relict sand dredging were investigated in an area offshore of Capo d’Anzio (central Tyrrhenian Sea). Surveys were performed before, during, and after dredging in 2007. Sampling stations were located within and outside the dredging site in water depths between 40 and 56 m. Defaunation due to sand extraction was the main impact observed in the inner stations and in stations located in proximity of the dredging site. At the inner stations, 9 months after dredging, a significant increase in species richness and diversity was observed: the sediment removal led to an increase of the sandy sediment fraction, favouring the settlement of sabulicolous species. A decrease in number of individuals and species was also observed in most of the outer stations, probably due to fine sediment redeposition. Recolonization of macrobenthic assemblages was essentially achieved at inner stations both in terms of abundance and species richness, while at outer stations it was still in progress. Results of this study, providing a picture of recovery times and processes in the Tyrrhenian Sea, could be used to develop predictions of the effects of future offshore sand dredging projects in comparable areas. Monitoring programs and research have a key role to provide a more detailed overview of biological recovery processes and times in different regions and with different dredging intensity.     

Temporal and spatial pattern of thermokarst lake area changes at Yukon Flats,Alaska

To better understand the linkage between lake area change, permafrost conditions and intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in climate, we explored the temporal and spatial patterns of lake area changes for a 422 382‐ha study area within Yukon Flats, Alaska using Landsat images of 17 dates between 1984 and 2009. Only closed basin lakes were used in this study. Among the 3529 lakes greater than 1 ha, closed basin lakes accounted for 65% by number and 50% by area. A multiple linear regression model was built to quantify the temporal change in total lake area with consideration of its intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. The results showed that 80.7% of lake area variability was attributed to intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability in local water balance and mean temperature since snowmelt (interpreted as a proxy for seasonal thaw depth). Another 14.3% was associated with long‐term change. Among 2280 lakes, 350 lakes shrank, and 103 lakes expanded. The lakes with similar change trends formed distinct clusters, so did the lakes with similar short term intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. By analysing potential factors driving lake area changes including evaporation, precipitation, indicators for regional permafrost change, and flooding, we found that ice‐jam flooding events were the most likely explanation for the observed temporal pattern. In addition to changes in the frequency of ice jam flooding events, the observed changes of individual lakes may be influenced by local variability in permafrost distributions and/or degradation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century

We estimate area burned in southern California at mid-century (2046–2065) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. We develop both regressions and a parameterization to predict area burned in three ecoregions, and apply present-day (1981–2000) and future meteorology from the suite of general circulation models to these fire prediction tools. The regressions account for the impacts of both current and antecedent meteorological factors on wildfire activity and explain 40–46 % of the variance in area burned during 1980–2009. The parameterization yields area burned as a function of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, and includes the impact of Santa Ana wind and other geographical factors on wildfires. It explains 38 % of the variance in area burned over southern California as a whole, and 64 % of the variance in southwestern California. The parameterization also captures the seasonality of wildfires in three ecoregions of southern California. Using the regressions, we find that area burned likely doubles in Southwestern California by midcentury, and increases by 35 % in the Sierra Nevada and 10 % in central western California. The parameterization suggests a likely increase of 40 % in area burned in southwestern California and 50 % in the Sierra Nevada by midcentury. It also predicts a longer fire season in southwestern California due to warmer and drier conditions on Santa Ana days in November. Our method provides robust estimates of area burned at midcentury, a key metric which can be used to calculate the fire-related effects on air quality, human health, and the associated costs.