Spring thermal resources for grapevine in Kőszeg (Hungary) deduced from a very long pictorial time series (1740–2009)

Since 1740 until now, the Book of Vine Branches encompasses beautiful pictorial representations of shoots and sprouts, collected every year on April 24th in the vineyards of the Hungarian town of K?szeg. A long time series (1740–2009) of sprouts phenological development coded with the BBCH scale is obtained through paintings visual inspection. Consequently, a model relating sprouts development with thermal resources accumulation is developed on the base of Wien daily air temperature series for the 1857–2009 period. Thermal resources is obtained with the Normal Heat Hours approach, a response curve method that takes into account the nonlinear response of phenological development to temperature. The model, calibrated and validated on the 1930–2009 period, shows an overestimation of thermal resources when applied to the 1857–1929, due to the more advanced phenology of that phase. Since this advance can be ascribed to genetics and management instead of more favorable thermal conditions, model outputs previous to 1930 are decreased by a constant factor. Finally, the 1740–2009 time series of grapevine spring thermal resources is obtained applying the model to the complete phenological time series. The analysis of the series highlights a first phase (1740–1780) characterized by high and stable availability of thermal resources during the 1740–1780, a second phase (1781–1820) with the lowest level of resources, a phase of intermediate availability (1821–1929) and a final present phase (1930–2009) with renewed high availability. The adopted method overcomes the lack of correlation for the post 1960 period shown by previous works.     

Climate feedback efficiency and synergy

Earth’s climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO₂-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere.     

Assessment of global wave models on regular and unstructured grids using the Unresolved Obstacles Source Term

Ocean Dynamics - The Unresolved Obstacles Source Term (UOST) is a general methodology for parameterizing the dissipative effects of subscale islands, cliffs, and other unresolved features in ocean...     

Response time and water origin in a steep nested catchment in the Italian Dolomites

In this study, we investigate the surface flow time of rise in response to rainfall and snowmelt events at different spatial scales and the main sources originating channel runoff and spring water in a steep nested headwater catchment (Rio Vauz, Italian Dolomites), characterized by a marked elevation gradient. We monitored precipitation at different elevations and measured water stage/streamflow at the outlet of two rocky subcatchments of the same size, representative of the upper part of the catchment dominated by outcropping bedrock, at the outlet of a soil‐mantled and vegetated subcatchment of similar size but different morphology, and at the outlet of the main catchment. Hydrometric data are coupled with stable isotopes and electrical conductivity sampled from different water sources during five years, and used as tracers in end‐member mixing analysis, application of two component mixing models and analysis of the slope of the dual‐isotope regression line. Results reveal that times of rise are slightly shorter for the two rocky subcatchments, particularly for snowmelt and mixed rainfall/snowmelt events, compared to the soil‐mantled catchment and the entire Rio Vauz Catchment. The highly‐variable tracer signature of the different water sources reflects the geomorphological and geological complexity of the study area. The principal end‐members for channel runoff and spring water are identified in rainfall and snowmelt, which are the dominant water sources in the rocky upper part of the study catchment, and soil water and shallow groundwater, which play a relevant role in originating baseflow and spring water in the soil‐mantled and vegetated lower part of the catchment. Particularly, snowmelt contributes up to 64 ± 8% to spring water in the concave upper parts of the catchment and up to 62 ± 11% to channel runoff in the lower part of the catchment. These results offer new experimental evidences on how Dolomitic catchments capture and store rain water and meltwater, releasing it through a complex network of surface and subsurface flow pathways, and allow for the construction of a preliminary conceptual model on water transmission in snowmelt‐dominated catchments featuring marked elevation gradients.     

Additive effects of climate change and human hunting explain population decline and extinction in cave bears

Cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) are an iconic component of the European late Quaternary Ice Age megafauna. Recent demographic analyses based on cave bear mtDNA sequences and refined radiocarbon dating indicate that cave bear population size and genetic diversity started to decline some 50 kilo years ago (kya). Hence, neither the coldest phase of the last glaciation (started some 24 kya), nor the colonization of Europe by Palaeolithic hunters (started some 45 kya) coincides with the beginning of population decline. Here, we reconstructed cave bear climatic niche evolution through time. Then, we performed spatially explicit population viability analyses to assess cave bear demographics through time in response to climatic changes, human effects on bear survival and their combination. We found that climate change was responsible for a 10‐fold decrease in cave bear population size after 40 kya. However, climate change on its own could not explain U. spelaeus extinction at 24 kya. Additional negative effects consistent with human population expansion are required to explain both U. spelaeus' retreat from eastern Europe since 40 kya and its final extinction.     

Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle

Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.     

Paleolakes, paleofloods, and depressions in Aurorae and Ophir Plana, Mars: Connectivity of surface and subsurface hydrological systems

The plains of Aurorae and Ophir in the equatorial region of Mars display geomorphic evidence indicative of extensive but generally short-lived paleohydrological processes. Elaver Vallis in Aurorae Planum south of Ganges Chasma is an outflow channel system >180 km long, and here inferred to have formed by cataclysmic spillover flooding from a paleolake(s) contained in the Morella crater basin. Ganges Cavus is an enormous 5-km-deep depression of probable collapse origin located in the Morella basin. The fluid responsible for the infilling of the Morella basin likely emerged at least partially through Ganges Cavus or its incipient depression, and it may have been supplied also from small-scale springs in the basin. Similar paleohydrological processes are inferred also in Ophir Planum. It is reasonable to assume that water, sometimes sediment-laden and/or mixed with gases, was the responsible fluid for these phenomena although some of the observed features could be explained by non-aqueous processes such as volcanism. Water emergence may have occurred as consequences of ground ice melting or breaching of cryosphere to release water from the underlying hydrosphere. Dike intrusion is considered to be an important cause of formation for the cavi and smaller depressions in Aurorae and Ophir Plana, explaining also melting of ground ice or breaching of cryosphere. Alternatively, the depressions and crater basins may have been filled by regional groundwater table rising during the period(s) when cryosphere was absent or considerably thin. The large quantities of water necessary for explaining the paleohydrological processes in Aurorae and Ophir Plana could have been derived through crustal migration from the crust of higher plains in western Ophir Planum where water existed in confined aquifers or was produced by melting of ground ice due to magmatic heating or climatic shift, or from a paleolake in Candor Chasma further west.     

“Galileo Galilei” (GG) a small satellite to test the equivalence principle of Galileo, Newton and Einstein

“Galileo Galilei” (GG) is a small satellite designed to fly in low Earth orbit with the goal of testing the Equivalence Principle—which is at the basis of the General Theory of Relativity—to 1 part in 10¹⁷. If successful, it would improve current laboratory results by 4 orders of magnitude. A confirmation would strongly constrain theories; proof of violation is believed to lead to a scientific revolution. The experiment design allows it to be carried out at ambient temperature inside a small 1-axis stabilized satellite (250 kg total mass). GG is under investigation at Phase A-2 level by ASI (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana) at Thales Alenia Space in Torino, while a laboratory prototype (known as GGG) is operational at INFN laboratories in Pisa, supported by INFN (Istituto Nazionale di fisica Nucleare) and ASI. A final study report will be published in 2009.     

Clinopyroxene/liquid trace element partitioning in natural trachyte–trachyphonolite systems: insights from Campi Flegrei (southern Italy)

Trace element partition coefficients between clinopyroxenes and associated glassy matrix (^Cpx/L D) have been determined for 13 REE, HFSE^4+,5+, U, Th, Sr, Pb, Sc and V from combined LA-ICP-MS/EMP analyses in selected trachytes and trachyphonolites from Campi Flegrei. Composition of clinopyroxene and glass is pretty homogeneous in the trachyphonolites, pointing to an overall attainment of the equilibrium conditions. In trachytes, conversely, phases show some compositional heterogeneity (due to the presence of clinopyroxene xenocrysts) that requested a more careful petrographic and geochemical inspection of the samples to assess the equilibrium clinopyroxene composition. In the trachyte clinopyroxenes, REE are compatible from Nd to Lu (^Cpx/L D up to 2.9), like Y, Ti, Sc and V. The ^Cpx/L D for Eu is lower than those of the adjacent REE, highlighting Eu²⁺ contribution. High D values are also shown by U, Th, Pb, Zr, Hf, Nb and Ta relatively to basaltic and andesitic systems, whereas the D _Sr is roughly similar to that found for less evolved magmas. Trachyphonolites are characterized by an overall decrease of the ^Cpx/L D for highly-charged cations (with the exception of V), and by a slight increase of D _Sr. REE are still compatible from Nd to Lu (^Cpx/L D up to 2.1), like Ti, Y, Sc and V. This variation is also predicted for REE and Y by models based on the elastic strain theory, being consistent with the slightly lower polymerization degree estimated for the trachyphonolites. However, the observed ^Cpx/L D _(REE,Y) are matched by the modelled ones only considering very low T (≤825°C), which are believed unlikely. This mismatch cannot be attributed to effects induced by the water-rich composition of the trachyte–trachyphonolite suite, since they would lower the observed ^Cpx/L D _(REE,Y). Moreover, the anomalous inflections of measured ^Cpx/L D for HREE suggests some crystal-chemical control, such as the entrance of these elements in a site distinct from M2. It is concluded that the large ^Cpx/L D determined for trachytes and trachyphonolites are likely induced by hitherto unconstrained changes of the Z³⁺ activities related to the composition of melt and/or solid. All these considerations strongly highlight the importance of a direct characterization of trace element partitioning in natural samples from magmatic systems poorly characterized by experimental studies. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Mantle degassing on a near shore volcano,SE Tyrrhenian Sea

The presence of a seamount‐like structure, located a few nautical miles offshore the Capo Vaticano Promontory (western Calabria, S Italy), was revealed by combined geophysical and geochemical investigation. The edifice covers ~55 km², with a top located at a depth of about 70 m below sea level, and consists mainly of a NW‐trending structure orthogonally interrupted by minor ridges, the largest of which is affected by extensional faults. The top of the edifice hosts active vents, injected fluids that have been investigated for dissolved volatiles. Gas analyses revealed high CO₂ and CH₄ contents, several orders of magnitude above the atmospheric‐type values expected for shallow, coastal marine waters, and a noteworthy enrichment in mantle‐derived ³He, which is an unambiguous indicator of the mantle origin of the fluids. Our results, combined with available data from the literature, suggest that the edifice is a tectonically controlled volcanic system, which presence near the Calabria region changes the role played by faults in the frame of the subduction process.