Nondeterministic theories of climatic change

A basic assumption in some climatic theories is that, given the physical properties of the atmosphere and the underlying ocean and land, specified environmental parameters (amount of solar heating, etc.) would determine a unique climate and that climatic changes therefore result from changes in the environment. The possibility that no such unique climate exists and that nondeterministic factors are wholly or partly responsible for long-period fluctuations of the atmosphere-ocean-earth system, is considered. A simple difference equation is used to illustrate the phenomena of transitivity, intransitivity, and almost-intransitivity. Numerical models of moderate size suggest that almost-intransitivity might lead to persistence of atmospheric anomalies for a whole season. The effect of this persistence could be to allow substantial anomalies to build up in the underlying ocean or land, perhaps as abnormal temperatures or excessive snow or ice. These anomalies could subsequently influence the atmosphere, leading to long-period fluctuations. The implications of this possibility for the numerical modeling of climate, and for the interpretation of the output of numerical models, are discussed.     

Ukinrek Maars, Alaska, I. April 1977 eruption sequence, petrology and tectonic setting

During ten days of phreatomagmatic activity in early April 1977, two maars formed 13 km behind the Aleutian arc near Peulik volcano on the Alaska Peninsula. They have been named “Ukinrek Maars”, meaning “two holes in the ground” in Yupik Eskimo. The western maar formed at the northwestern end of a low ridge within the first three days and is up to 170 m in diameter and 35 m in depth. The eastern maar formed during the next seven days 600 m east of West Maar at a lower elevation in a shallow saddle on the same ridge and is more circular, up to 300 m in diameter and 70 m in depth. The maars formed in terrain that was heavily glaciated in Pleistocene times. The groundwater contained in the underlying till and silicic volcanics from nearby Peulik volcano controlled the dominantly phreatomagmatic course of the eruption.During the eruptions, steam and ash clouds reached maximum heights of about 6 km and a thin blanket of fine ash was deposited north and east of the vents up to a distance of at least 160 km. Magma started to pool on the floor of East Maar after four days of intense phreatomagmatic activity.The new melt is a weakly undersaturated alkali olivine basalt (Ne = 1.2%) showing some transitional character toward high-alumina basalts. The chemistry, an anomaly in the tholeitic basalt-andesite-dominated Aleutian arc, suggests that the new melt is primitive, generated at a depth of 80 km or greater by a low degree of partial melting of garnet peridotite mantle with little subsequent fractionization during transport.The Pacific plate subduction zone lies at a depth of 150 km beneath the maars. Their position appears to be tectonically controlled by a major regional fault, the Bruin Bay fault, and its intersection with cross-arc structural features. We favor a model for the emplacement of the Ukinrek Maars that does not link the Ukinrek conduit to the plumbing system of nearby Peulik volcano. The Ukinrek eruptions probably represent a genetically distinct magma pulse originating at asthenospheric depths beneath the continental lithosphere.     

Carbonatite magmatism and fenitization of the epiclastic caldera-fill at Gross Brukkaros (Namibia)

The Gross Brukkaros inselberg is a dome structure with a crater-shaped central depression within Precambrian/Cambrian country rocks which was active as a depocenter during the Late Cretaceous. The formation of the structure was due to the intrusion and subsequent intermittent depletion of a shallow magma reservoir. Juvenile material has not been recognized hitherto. This is the first account of juvenile lapilli from within the epiclastic fill of the caldera structure. The lapilli are calciocarbonatites and magnesiocarbonatites in composition, but are characteristically low in elements such as P, Nb, Ba and Sr, otherwise typical of carbonatites. This signature, however, is also characteristic of carbonatites from surrounding volcanic centers and necks. The Brukkaros sediments suffered strong metasomatic-hydrothermal alteration, which introduced in a first stage fluids rich in Fe, Ti, Na, Nb, V, K (Ca?, CO₂?), and in a second stage the Brukkaros sediments were silicified on a large scale and locally enriched in P, Th and Cr. Si is derived from desilication of the wall rocks (basement?, Nama sediments) of the magma reservoir. Cr was probably mobilized during alteration of the abundant doleritic detritus within the Brukkaros depocenter.     

Messungen der Himmelsstrahlung und deren Polarisationsgrad während der Sonnenfinsternis am 15.2.1961 in Viareggio (Italien)

Summary On the occasion of the total solar eclipse in Viareggio (Italy) measurements of intensity of sky radiation and polarization have been carried out at 90 degrees vertical distance from the sun. UV-, green- and red-filters have been used. The results showed a diminution of the intensity during the eclipse of about 3 powers of ten. The sky brightness in the point 90 degrees distant during the total eclipse was similar to the brightness when sun is 7 degrees below the horizon. About one minute before the total eclipse the degree of polarization diminuished to zero. — Furthermore photos of nearly the total sky were made using two cameras with wide angle lenses.     

The Benedikt hydrothermal system (north-eastern Slovenia)

Records from magnetic signals in Buenos Aires loess–paleosol sequences have been published, but their relationship with environmental changes has been difficult to establish. Studies on the superparamagnetic (SP) population in present soils can help to understand these processes. Samples from present soils (Argiudolls) and a paleosol from the Buenos Aires Province (Argentina) were analyzed using low and room temperature magnetic measurements. They show that it is possible to support the hypothesis of a lognormal distribution of superparamagnetic particles, the median diameter near 15 nm. The presence of detritic pseudosingledomain (PSD) titanomagnetite, with low titanium content ranging between TM 28 and TM40, has been established. The linear correlation of SP content with ferrimagnetic susceptibility and with magnetization suggests that ferrimagnetic minerals drive the SP generation. Finally, it can be concluded that SP magnetic grains, in the Pampean plain, are generated by an inorganic process in adequate environmental pH and Eh of the soils.     

三峡库区秭归县和兴山县的土地利用

In this study the arable land changes in two counties (Zigui and Xingshan) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China are investigated. The statistical data fTom the officially published statistical books are used to study these changes in the two counties during the past 50 years since 1949. The changes of arable land, changes of arable land per capita, and changes of multiple crop index in Zigui and Xingshan counties are examined. Using an index method, we conclude that the two counties are critical in the sustainable utilization of arable land.     

Premixing of magma and water in MFCI experiments

 Experimental studies have been performed to evaluate pre-explosive water–melt mixes with respect to explosive volcanic molten–fuel–coolant interaction (MFCI), i.e., phreatomagmatic explosion. Remolten ultrabasic volcanic rock was used as a magma simulant. Measurement of the explosion intensity was used to determine optimal premixing conditions. A well-defined optimal range was found for the hydrodynamic mixing energy (differential flow speed of 4.2 m/s), as well as for the water/melt mass ratio (0.03 to 0.04) under experimental conditions. The mass flux of water had a minor influence on the explosion intensity. Additionally, transparent mixing experiments with silicon oil and inked water were carried out. They indicate a direct dependence of the pre-explosive water-melt interface area on the explosion intensity. The experimental results show that the contact conditions of water and melt required for explosive MFCI may easily be established in natural volcanic systems. Thus, explosive MFCI is a probable mechanism of explosive volcanism. Received: 23 July 1996 / Accepted: 16 December 1996     

Geochemical and organic petrological characterization of the organic matter of lacustrine Eocene oil shales (Prinz von Hessen,Germany): reconstruction of the depositional environment

Optical and geochemical techniques were applied to sedimentary organic matter from the profundal area of the Eocene Lake Prinz von Hessen, which formed in a pull-apart basin on the Sprendlinger Horst, near Darmstadt, Germany. Variations in total sulphur content (S tot) and total organic carbon content (TOC), hydrogen index (HI), oxygen index (OI) and ¹³C values of the organic matter were used to reconstruct the lakes filling history. Following an initial rapid deepening phase, open lake conditions developed with HI reaching more than 500 mg HC/g TOC and TOC values up to 40%. The productivity of the lake was probably high and organic matter preservation was enhanced by a stratified water column. As the lake began to fill with sediment and became shallower, TOC and HI values declined, as the lake water was better oxygenated and preservation conditions declined. ¹³C values between –31 and –27 are controlled by the mixing of aquatic (algae and microbial mats) and terrigenous organic matter (wood, spores, pollen and cuticles). Following a rapid drop in lake level, shallow lake conditions alternated with swamp deposits (lignites) in the basin center. The organic matter preserved during this stage is strictly terrigenous in nature and experienced oxic degradation (HI 100 mg HC/g TOC). ¹³C values between –26 and –24 are typical for Eocene terrigenous matter. The inferred lake level fluctuations are interpreted to have been controlled by tectonic as well as climatic processes.     

Carbon,sulfur, oxygen and strontium isotope records,organic geochemistry and biostratigraphy across the Permian/Triassic boundary in Abadeh,Iran

Pelagic deposits at Abadeh represent a complete biostratigraphic record across the Permian/Triassic boundary (PTB). The presumed water depth during deposition of these sediments was between 60 and 90 m. Similar to other Permian/Triassic boundary sections, the succession at Abadeh is characterised by a negative carbon isotope shift of approximately 4. The values start to decrease in the lower C. changxingensis - C. deflecta s.l. Zone, reach –0.12 (V-PDB) in the uppermost Permian just below the PTB, remain low to the early I. isarcica Zone (–0.32) and increase subsequently in the upper I. isarcica Zone. For the time interval of the PTB negative carbon isotope excursion, between the C. iranica and the I. isarcica Zones, no correlation exists between the ¹³C_carb and the ¹⁸O_carb. The above observations argue against the conclusion of Heydari et al. (2001) that the carbon isotope event at the P/T transition is an alteration artefact and not a global signal. The decrease in ¹³C_carb is accompanied by a ~5 (and potentially up to 10) increase in ³⁴S_SSS. Together, these features are thought to reflect a complex global event, notably the development of widespread anoxic oceans with anoxic bottom layers rising onto the shelves. For the carbon isotope drop, other factors, such as the collapse of ocean primary productivity may also have played a role. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of Dzhulfian seawater show only a minor increase from 0.70705 to 0.70710, reaching 0.70720 in the Dorashamian. The increase becomes steeper in the Early Triassic reaching 0.70754 in the N. dieneri Zone. The rise of the strontium isotope values is thought to be related to enhanced continental weathering under humid climatic conditions in the uppermost Permian (C. meishanensis - H. praeparvus Zone) and the lack of a dense land vegetation in the Early Triassic, prior to the Spathian (Upper Olenekian).     

Monitoring land subsidence in Semarang,Indonesia

Semarang is one of the biggest cities in Indonesia and nowadays suffering from extended land subsidence, which is due to groundwater withdrawal, to natural consolidation of alluvium soil and to the load of constructions. Land subsidence causes damages to infrastructure, buildings, and results in tides moving into low-lying areas. Up to the present, there has been no comprehensive information about the land subsidence and its monitoring in Semarang. This paper examines digital elevation model (DEM) and benchmark data in Geographic Information System (GIS) raster operation for the monitoring of the land subsidence in Semarang. This method will predict and quantify the extent of subsidence in future years. The future land subsidence prediction is generated from the expected future DEM in GIS environment using ILWIS package. The procedure is useful especially in areas with scarce data. The resulting maps designate the area of land subsidence that increases rapidly and it is predicted that in 2020, an area of 27.5 ha will be situated 1.5–2.0 m below sea level. This calculation is based on the assumption that the rate of land subsidence is linear and no action is taken to protect the area from subsidence.