Winds and tides of Ligeia Mare,with application to the drift of the proposed time TiME (Titan Mare Explorer) capsule

We use two independent General Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate surface winds at Titan’s Ligeia Mare (78° N, 250° W), motivated by a proposed mission to land a floating capsule in this ～500 km hydrocarbon sea. The models agree on the overall magnitude (～0.5–1 m/s) and seasonal variation (strongest in summer) of windspeeds, but details of seasonal and diurnal variation of windspeed and direction differ somewhat, with the role of surface exchanges being more significant than that of gravitational tides in the atmosphere. We also investigate the tidal dynamics in the sea using a numerical ocean dynamics model: assuming a rigid lithosphere, the tidal amplitude is up to ～0.8 m. Tidal currents are overall proportional to the reciprocal of depth—with an assumed central depth of 300 m, the characteristic tidal currents are ～1 cm/s, with notable motions being a slosh between Ligeia’s eastern and western lobes, and a clockwise flow pattern.We find that a capsule will drift at approximately one tenth of the windspeed, unless measures are adopted to augment the drag areas above or below the waterline. Thus motion of a floating capsule is dominated by the wind, and is likely to be several km per Earth day, a rate that will be readily measured from Earth by radio navigation methods. In some instances, the wind vector rotates diurnally such that the drift trajectory is epicyclic.     

10Be surface exposure dating reveals unexpected high deformation rates in the central Andean wedge interior

Understanding deformation associated with active thrust wedges is essential to evaluate seismic hazards. In this study, we investigate the spatial distribution, timing, and rates of deformation across the central Andean backarc of Argentina, where deformation and shortening have been assumed to occur within a narrow wedge‐front zone. The combined results of our geomorphic mapping, topographic surveying, and ¹⁰Be exposure dating demonstrate that fault activity related to the growth of the Andean orogenic wedge is not only limited to a narrow thrust front zone but also occurs in the Andean wedge interior. There, internal structures with deformation rates of ca. 1.3 mm/year have been active during the last ~140 ka. Widely distributed deformation implies that seismic hazards may have been underestimated in the internal part of the Andean orogen.     

Snowfall trends and variability in Qinghai, China

Snow is an important component of a climate system, and very sensitive to climate change, and it can be an indicator of checking and monitoring global change. This paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of snowfall in Qinghai, located in western China. We used the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate the annual and monthly trends in snowfall in Qinghai during the periods 1957/58–2006/07 based on data obtained from 25 stations. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. In order to understand the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai, the detected trends are spatially interpolated using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method in a GIS environment. The results indicate that in January snowfall in the most area of Qinghai shows a significant upward trend, especially in the Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, as well as southeastern Qinghai, however, there is no significant downward trend area. The trend analysis indicates that annual snowfall has a significant upward trend in Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, and the downward trends occurred in the Qilian mountain area and Gonghe Basin. This is especially the case for highlighting the spatial structure of snowfall trends. The research results help in further understanding the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai and its response to global climatic warming.     

3D dynamics of debris flows quantified at sub-second intervals from laser profiles

We use pairs of parallel mounted laser profile scanners to measure main debris-flow variables in two debris-flow channels in central and southern Switzerland. The scanners measure the instantaneous cross-sectional geometry of debris flows at rates of 25–100 Hz, and we apply large-scale particle image velocimetery to estimate velocity. The scanners also provide direct measurements of flow depth. From these data, we were able to estimate debris-flow depth, velocity and discharge for 16 out of 17 events. These results are consistent with discharge estimated from a system of geophones and a radar gauge for two available datasets. We also investigated debris-flow geometry to quantify rheology-controlled cross-flow convexity and found that four events manifest strong surface convexity at their surge fronts where we expect the largest boulders and low pore-fluid pressures. The scanners provide a completely new view of debris-flow dynamics and channel morphology and present novel opportunities to measure discharge and investigate debris-flow geometries.     

Radar-bright channels on Titan

During Cassini’s T44 flyby of Titan (May 28, 2008), the Cassini SAR (synthetic aperture radar) revealed sinuous channels in the Southwest of Xanadu. These channels feature very large radar cross-sections, up to 5 dB, whereas the angle of incidence was relatively high, ∼20°. This backscatter is larger than allowed by the coherent backscatter model considered to explain the unusual reflective and polarization properties of the icy satellites and only a few radar scattering mechanisms can be responsible for such high radar returns. The presence of rounded (icy) pebbles with size larger than the radar wavelength (2.18 cm) is proposed to explain the large radar cross-sections measured in these units. The radar-bright channels are thus interpreted as riverbeds, where debris, likely shaped and transported by fluvial activity, have been deposited. Similar debris were observed in the landing site of the Huygens probe. This work may point the way to an explanation for the enhanced brightness of other fluvial regions of Titan.     

Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios

There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables.     

Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

Decadal and bi-decadal climate responses to tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) are inspected in an ensemble simulation covering the last millennium based on the Max Planck Institute—Earth system model. An unprecedentedly large collection of pre-industrial SVEs (up to 45) producing a peak annual-average top-of-atmosphere radiative perturbation larger than ?1.5 Wm^?2 is investigated by composite analysis. Post-eruption oceanic and atmospheric anomalies coherently describe a fluctuation in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system with an average length of 20–25 years. The study provides a new physically consistent theoretical framework to interpret decadal Northern Hemisphere (NH) regional winter climates variability during the last millennium. The fluctuation particularly involves interactions between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the North Atlantic gyre circulation closely linked to the state of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. It is characterized by major distinctive details. Among them, the most prominent are: (a) a strong signal amplification in the Arctic region which allows for a sustained strengthened teleconnection between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic during the first post-eruption decade and which entails important implications from oceanic heat transport and from post-eruption sea ice dynamics, and (b) an anomalous surface winter warming emerging over the Scandinavian/Western Russian region around 10–12 years after a major eruption. The simulated long-term climate response to SVEs depends, to some extent, on background conditions. Consequently, ensemble simulations spanning different phases of background multidecadal and longer climate variability are necessary to constrain the range of possible post-eruption decadal evolution of NH regional winter climates.     

长江三角洲8000年来古环境变迁

The Yangtze Delta is one of the economically most developed areas in China. It is located in the eastern China monsoon region. Archaeological excavations and environment-archaeology studies over many years in this region provide exceptional information about climate changes, development of human civilization and also human-environment interactions. Archaeological excavations made in the study region reveal that the development of Neolithic cultures is not continuous, which may be a result of extreme climatic events. The analysis of 14C-dated buried paleotrees, peat and shell ridges show the rise and fall of human civilization in the study area. The research results presented in this paper confirm that human civilization collapsed six times in the Yangtze Delta, matching six high sea level epoches, peat accumulation and buried paleotrees formation periods respectively. This indicates that human activities in the Yangtze Delta are controlled by local climate changes and changing hydrological conditions. The collapse of the Liangzhu culture (5000 aBP-3800 aBP) in about 4000 aBP, after a tremendous flooding event, followed by a relatively backward Maqiao culture (3800 aBP-3200 aBP) confused researchers and aroused their great interest. The research results in this paper show that the collapse of the Liangzhu culture is a result of several factors, for example war and food shortage, but the flooding event occurred in the late Liangzhu culture epoch is the main factor therein.     

Facies interfingering and synsedimentary tectonics on late Ladinian–early Carnian carbonate platforms (Dolomites, Italy)

A stratigraphic model for carbonate platform evolution in the Dolomites during the late Ladinian-early Carnian is presented. New light on pre-Raibl growth of individual carbonate platforms of the western Dolomites was shed by biostratigraphic data combined with a revised lithostratigraphy. At the Schlern, Langkofel and Sella, the carbonate factory (Upper Schlern Dolomite) remained productive into the lowermost Carnian (Cordevolian = Aon Zone), and caused a levelling-out of the former steep platform-to-basin relief. In the eastern Dolomites, platforms were producing till basal Julian 2 (Austriacum Zone). At the Sella and Langkofel, the sedimentation pattern after deposition of the Upper Schlern Dolomite was strongly influenced by synsedimentary tectonics. A first phase of extensional tectonics led to local fissures, block-tilting, graben structures and breccia deposits. Composition and fabric of the reworked clasts argue for local-source sediments and short transport distances. The extensional structures are sealed by sediments of Lower Carnian age. Two facies belts (Schlernplateau beds and Dürrenstein Dolomite), which interfinger at the western side of the Sella, reflect the shallow marine environment with terrigenous-volcanoclastic input in the western Dolomites. A second generation of breccias at the Sella documents local fracturing of the Dürrenstein and Upper Schlern Dolomite. Depositional environments across the western and eastern Dolomites were largely dependent on differential subsidence. The sediments of early Carnian age on top of the Schlern platform are a few metres thick only, whereas, in the eastern Dolomite, up to 400-m-thick carbonate sediments ('Richthofen reef' and Settsass platform) were deposited. The most incomplete stratigraphic record is present at the Mendel platform in the west, where Ladinian volcanics are unconformably overlain by late Carnian 'Raibl beds'. The increase in sediment thickness towards the eastern Dolomites becomes partly visible at the eastern flank of the Sella platform. Differential subsidence across western and eastern Dolomites caused local fracturing of platform sediments. Synsedimentary extensional tectonics was a significant controlling factor to the lithofacies and thickness variations of early Carnian platform sediments in the Dolomites.