Rossby wave patterns in zonal and meridional winds

The propagation properties of Rossby waves in zonal and meridional winds are analyzed using the local dispersion relation in its wave number form, the geometry of which plays a crucial role in illuminating radiation patterns and ray trajectories. In the presence of a wind/current, the classical Rossby wave number curve, an offset circle, is distorted by the Doppler shift in frequency and a new branch, consisting of a blocking line with an eastward facing indentation, arises from waves convected with or against the flow. The radiation patterns generated by a time harmonic compact source in the laboratory frame are calculated using the method of stationary phase and are illustrated through a series of figures given by the reciprocal polars to the various types of wave number curves. We believe these results are new. Some of these wave patterns are reminiscent of a “reversed” ship wave pattern in which cusps (caustics) arise from the points of inflection of the wave number curves; whilst others bear a resemblance to the parabolic like curves characteristic of the capillary wave pattern formed around an obstacle in a stream. The Rossby stationary wave in a westerly is similar to the gravity wave pattern in a wind, whereas its counterpart in a meridional wind exhibits caustics, again arising from points of inflection in the wavenumber curve.     

Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.     

An Evaluation of Temporal Changes in Sediment Accumulation and Impacts on Carbon Burial in Mobile Bay,Alabama, USA

The estuarine environment can serve as either a source or sink of carbon relative to the coastal ocean carbon budget. A variety of time-dependent processes such as sedimentation, carbon supply, and productivity dictate how estuarine systems operate, and Mobile Bay is a system that has experienced both natural and anthropogenic perturbations that influenced depositional processes and carbon cycling. Sediments from eight box cores provide a record of change in bulk sediment accumulation and carbon burial over the past 110 years. Accumulation rates in the central part of the basin (0.09 g cm^?2) were 60–80 % less than those observed at the head (0.361 g cm^?2) and mouth (0.564 g cm^?2) of the bay. Sediment accumulation in the central bay decreased during the past 90 years in response to both anthropogenic (causeway construction) and natural (tropical cyclones) perturbations. Sediment accumulation inevitably increased the residence time of organic carbon in the oxic zone, as observed in modeled remineralization rates, and reduced the overall carbon burial. Such observations highlight the critical balance among sediment accumulation, carbon remineralization, and carbon burial in dynamic coastal environments. Time-series analysis based solely on short-term observation would not capture the long-term effects of changes in sedimentation on carbon cycling. Identifying these relationships over longer timescales (multi-annual to decadal) will provide a far better evaluation of coastal ocean carbon budgets.     

Alteration of benthic communities associated with copper contamination linked to boat moorings

Although copper (Cu) is an essential element for life, leaching from boat paint can cause excess environmental loading in enclosed marinas. The effects of copper contamination on benthic macrofaunal communities were examined in three San Diego Bay marinas (America's Cup, Harbor Island West and East) in Southern California, USA. The distribution of Cu concentration in sediments exhibited a clear spatial gradient, with hotspots created by the presence of boats, which in two marinas exceeded the effect range medium (ERM). Elevated sediment Cu was associated with differences in benthic assemblages, reduced species richness and enhanced dominance in America's Cup and Harbor Island West, whereas Harbor Island East did not appear to be affected. At sites without boats there were greater abundances of some amphipods such as the species Desdimelita sp., Harpinia sp., Aoroides sp., Corophium sp., Podocerus sp., bivalves such as Lyonsia californica, Musculista senhousia, Macoma sp., and polychaetes such as Diplocirrus sp. In contrast, at sites with boats, densities of Pseudopolydora paucibranchiata, Polydora nuchalis, Euchone limnicola, Exogone lourei, Tubificoides spp. were enhanced. The limited impact on Harbor Island East suggests not only lower Cu input rates and increased water flushing and mixing, but also the presence of adequate defense mechanisms that regulate availability and mitigate toxic impacts. At all three marinas, Cu in tissues of several macrobenthic species exhibited Cu bioaccumulation above levels found in the surrounding environment. The annelids Lumbrineris sp. and Tubificoides spp., and the amphipod Desdimelita sp. contained high levels of Cu, suggesting they function as Cu bioaccumulators. The spionid polychaetes Polydora nuchalis and Pseudopolydora paucibranchiata had much lower Cu concentrations than surrounding sediments, suggesting they function as Cu bioregulators. The macrobenthic invertebrates in San Diego Bay marinas that tolerate Cu pollution (e.g. P. nuchalis, P. paucibranchiata, Euchone limnicola, Typosyllis sp., Tubificoides sp.) may function as indicators of high‐Cu conditions, whereas the presence of Cu‐sensitive species (e.g. Podocerus sp., Aoroides sp., Harpinia sp., Macoma sp., Lyonsia californica) may indicate healthier conditions (less Cu‐stressed). Parallel responses by faunas of Shelter Island Yacht Basin, also in San Diego Bay, suggest potential for development of regional Cu contamination assessment criteria, and call for functional comparisons with other marinas and coastal water bodies.     

A Tiered Approach to Evaluating Salinity Sources in Water at Oil and Gas Production Sites

A suspected increase in the salinity of fresh water resources can trigger a site investigation to identify the source(s) of salinity and the extent of any impacts. These investigations can be complicated by the presence of naturally elevated total dissolved solids or chlorides concentrations, multiple potential sources of salinity, and incomplete data and information on both naturally occurring conditions and the characteristics of potential sources. As a result, data evaluation techniques that are effective at one site may not be effective at another. In order to match the complexity of the evaluation effort to the complexity of the specific site, this paper presents a strategic tiered approach that utilizes established techniques for evaluating and identifying the source(s) of salinity in an efficient step‐by‐step manner. The tiered approach includes: (1) a simple screening process to evaluate whether an impact has occurred and if the source is readily apparent; (2) basic geochemical characterization of the impacted water resource(s) and potential salinity sources coupled with simple visual and statistical data evaluation methods to determine the source(s); and (3) advanced laboratory analyses (e.g., isotopes) and data evaluation methods to identify the source(s) and the extent of salinity impacts where it was not otherwise conclusive. A case study from the U.S. Gulf Coast is presented to illustrate the application of this tiered approach.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime, known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas, Pakistan. Seismic Hazard Assessment （SHA） for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones, selection of appropriate attenuation equations, near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Fault, Banna Thrust, Balakot Shear Zone, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal Thrust, Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and, further to the south, the Sanghargali, Nathiagali, and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra. Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007, SHA has been carried out. Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated. Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault, with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch, has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data. The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations. The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g （10% probability of exceedance for 50 years） and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.     

The Chemistry of Serpentine Soils Developed Over A Podiform Chromite Deposit, Western Sierra Nevada, USA

The Chinese Camp mining district in the western Sierra Nevada of California,USA,contains a serpentinized,ultramafic dunite intrusion with podiform chromite deposits.Serpentine soils have developed over this intrusion,creating a unique ecosystem of endemic vegetation and soils characterized by low Ca/Mg ratios and high Ni and Cr contents.The vegetation and red coloration make it easy to visually distinguish between soils developed over intruded,serpentinized bedrock and unmineralized,adjacent andesite bedrock(Fig.1).The purpose of our study was to compare soil chemistry and vegetative parameters among 3 study-design levels:1)undisturbed serpentine soil,2)undisturbed background soil(non-serpentine,developed over andesite),and 3)serpentine soil disturbed by mining activities.Within each of these l e v*e ls,3 random locations were chosen where weestablished 3,30-m transects(spaced 120-degrees apart).One soil sample was collected at a random location along each transect(0-15 cm depth after removing litter/O horizon).This scheme resulted in the collection of 9replicate soil samples per study-design level.Samples were analyzed for total metal content by ICP-AES/MS(inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy/mass spectroscopy),p H,electrical conductivity,and total C/N/S.The vegetative parameter of%canopy cover was measured with a line-point intercept survey along each transect,using 0.6m intervals.Above-ground net primary productivity(ANPP)was estimated by harvesting all aboveground living plant material within a 0.5 m quadrant at 3 random locations along each transect,drying,and weighting the material.Significant differences among design levels were observed for ANPP,canopy cover,total P,total N,and Ca/Mg,where the median values for these parameters decreased in the order undisturbed backgroundundisturbed serpentinemining-disturbed serpentine.The highest concentrations of Cr and Ni were found in undisturbed serpentine(medians of 1960 ppm and 2529ppm,respectively)followed by mining-disturbed serpentine(medians of 420 and 2120,respectively)then undisturbed non-serpentine(medians 47.0 and 32.2 ppm,respectively).Soil p H varied significantly among the design levels with a median 5.74 in undisturbed background,median 6.25 in undisturbed serpentine,and median of 7.17 in mining-disturbed serpentine.These data document the distinct differences in soil chemistry and vegetation parameters between undisturbed serpentine soil and adjacent,undisturbed background soil.Efforts toward mining reclamation must recognize these differences and include the correct baseline conditions in the reclamation plan.     

Connectivity clues from short-term variability in settlement and geochemical tags of mytilid mussels

The use of geochemical tags in calcified structures of fish and invertebrates is an exciting tool for investigating larval population connectivity. Tag evaluation over relatively short intervals (weeks) may detect environmental and ecological variability at a temporal scale highly relevant to larval transport and settlement. We collected newly settled mussels (Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis) weekly during winter/spring of 2002 along the coast of San Diego, CA, USA, at sites on the exposed coast (SIO) and in a protected coastal bay (HI), to investigate temporal patterns of geochemical tags in mussel shells. Analyses of post-settlement shell via LA-ICP-MS revealed statistically significant temporal variability for all elements we examined (Mg, Mn, Cu, Sr, Cd, Ba, Pb and U). Despite this, our ability to distinguish multielemental signatures between sites was largely conserved. Throughout our 13-week study, SIO and HI mussels could be chemically distinguished from one another in 78–87% of all cases. Settlement varied between 2 and 27 settlers gram-byssus^?1 week^?1 at SIO and HI, and both sites were characterized by 2–3 weeks with “high” settlement. Geochemical tags recorded in early larval shell of newly settled mussels differed between “high” and “low” settlement weeks at both sites (MANOVA), driven by Mg and Sr at SIO (p = 0.013) and Sr, Cd, Ba and Pb at HI (p < 0.001). These data imply that shifts in larval sources or transport corridors were responsible for observed settlement variation, rather than increased larval production. In particular, increased settlement at HI was observed concurrent with the appearance of geochemical tags (e.g., elevated Cd), suggesting that those larvae were retained in upwelled water near the mouth of the bay. Such shifts may reflect short-term changes in connectivity among sites due to altered transport corridors, and influence the demography of local populations.     

Detection of Planetary Transits of the Star HD 209458 in the Hipparcos Data Set

A search of the Hipparcos satellite photometry data for the star HD 209458 reveals evidence for a planetary transit signature consistent with the planetary properties reported by Henry et al. and Charbonneau et al. and allows further refinement of the planet's orbital period. The long time baseline (about 2926 days or 830 periods) from the best Hipparcos transit-like event to the latest transit reported by Henry et al. for the night of 1999 November 15 (UT) allows for an orbital period determination of 3.524736 days with an uncertainty of 0.000045 days (3.9 s). The transit events observed by Charbonneau et al. fall at the interim times expected to within the errors of this newly derived period. A series of statistical tests was performed to assess the likelihood of these events occurring by chance. This was crucial given the ill-conditioned problem presented by the sparse sampling of the light curve and the non-Gaussian distribution of the points. Monte Carlo simulations using bootstrap methods with the actual Hipparcos HD 209458 data set indicate that the transit-like signals of the depth observed would only be produced by chance in 21 out of 1 million trials. The transit durations and depths obtained from the Hipparcos data are also consistent with those determined by Charbonneau et al. and Henry et al. within the limitations of the sampling intervals and photometric precision of the Hipparcos data.