Use of a reservoir water quality model to simulate global climate change effects on fish habitat

A case study was conducted on the potential impacts of climate change on fish habitat in a southeastern reservoir. A reservoir water quality model and one year of baseline meteorologic, hydrologic, and inflow water quality input were used to simulate current reservoir water quality. Total adult striped bass habitat, defined by specific quantitative temperature and dissolved oxygen criteria, was simulated. Daily reservoir volumes with optimal, suboptimal, and unsuitable temperature and DO were predicted for the year. Output from recent runs of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), in which atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been doubled, was then used to adjust the baseline inputs to the water quality model. New sets of input data were created for two grid cells for each of three GCMs. All six climate scenarios are predicted to cause overall declines in the available summer striped bass habitat, mostly due to lake water temperatures exceeding striped bass tolerance levels. These predictions are believed to result from the consensus among GCM scenarios that air temperatures and humidity will rise, and the sensitivity of the reservoir model to these parameters. The reservoir model was found to be a promising tool for examining potential climate-change impacts. Some of the assumptions required to apply GCM output to the reservoir model, however, illustrate the problems in using large-scale gridcell output to assess small-scale impacts.     

Oceanography of Glacier Bay,Alaska: Implications for biological patterns in a glacial fjord estuary

Alaska, U.S.A, is one of the few remaining locations in the world that has fjords that contain temperate idewater glaciers. Studying such estuarine systems provides vital information on how deglaciation affects oceanographic onditions of fjords and surrounding coastal waters. The oceanographic system of Glacier Bay, Alaska, is of particular interest ue to the rapid deglaciation of the Bay and the resulting changes in the estuarine environment, the relatively high oncentrations of marine mammals, seabirds, fishes, and invertebrates, and the Bay’s status as a national park, where ommercial fisheries are being phased out. We describe the first comprehensive broad-scale analysis of physical and iological oceanographic conditions within Glacier Bay based on CTD measurements at 24 stations from 1993 to 2002. easonal patterns of near-surface salinity, temperature, stratification, turbidity, and euphotic depth suggest that freshwater nput was highest in summer, emphasizing the critical role of glacier and snowmelt to this system. Strong and persistent tratification of surface waters driven by freshwater input occurred from spring through fall. After accounting for seasonal nd spatial variation, several of the external physical factors (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, day length) explained a large mount of variation in the physical properties of the surface waters. Spatial patterns of phytoplankton biomass varied hroughout the year and were related to stratification levels, euphotic depth, and day length. We observed hydrographic atterns indicative of strong competing forces influencing water column stability within Glacier Bay: high levels of freshwater ischarge promoted stratification in the upper fjord, while strong tidal currents over the Bay’s shallow entrance sill enhanced ertical mixing. Where these two processes met in the central deep basins there were optimal conditions of intermediate tratification, higher light levels, and potential nutrient renewal. These conditions were associated with high and sustained hlorophylla levels observed from spring through fall in these zones of the Bay and provide a framework for understanding he abundance patterns of higher trophic levels within this estuarine system.     

Quantifying sedimentation patterns of small landslide-dammed lakes in the central Oregon Coast Range

Understanding sedimentation patterns in small coastal watersheds due to landscape perturbations is critical for connecting hillslope and fluvial processes, in addition to managing aquatic habitats for anadromous fish and other aquatic species in the Oregon Coast Range (OCR). Changes in sedimentation patterns spanning the last 250 years are preserved in two landslide-dammed lakes in small watersheds (< 10 km²) underlain by the Tyee Formation in the central OCR. Dendrochronology of drowned Douglas-fir stumps in both lakes provided precise timing of the damming and formation of the lakes, with Klickitat Lake forming in winter ad 1751/52 and Wasson Lake in winter ad 1819/20. Perturbations from wildfires, logging and road development, and previously underappreciated snow events affect sedimentation rates in the lakes to different degrees, and are identified in the sediment record using cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs), high-resolution charcoal stratigraphy, local fire records, and aerial photography. Each lake has variable sedimentation accumulation rates (0.05–4.4 cm yr⁻¹) and mass accumulation rates (0.02–1.42 g cm⁻² yr⁻¹). Sedimentation rates remained low from the landslide-damming events until the mid-19th century, when they increased following stand-replacing wildfires. Aside from a sediment remobilization triggered by human modification of the landslide dam at Klickitat Lake around 1960, the largest peaks in mass accumulation rates in the mid-20th century at both lakes in the early 1950s precede major road construction and logging activity in the watersheds. Subsequent sedimentation rates are lower, but variable, and possible effects of logging and road development might be exacerbated by abnormal precipitation and heavy snow events. A comparison of previous studies of landslide-dammed lakes in larger watershed of the OCR are consistent with our findings of increased sedimentation in the mid-20th century, as well as higher sedimentation rates in the debris-flow dominated southern Tyee Formation than in the lower-relief northern Tyee Formation.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Exploration drilling and reservoir model of the Platanares geothermal system, Honduras, Central America

Results of drilling, logging, and testing of three exploration core holes, combined with results of geologic and hydrogeochemical investigations, have been used to present a reservoir model of the Platanares geothermal system, Honduras. Geothermal fluids circulate at depths ≥ 1.5 km in a region of active tectonism devoid of Quaternary volcanism. Large, artesian water entries of 160 to 165°C geothermal fluid in two core holes at 625 to 644 m and 460 to 635 m depth have maximum flow rates of roughly 355 and 560 l/min, respectively, which are equivalent to power outputs of about 3.1 and 5.1 MW(thermal). Dilute, alkali-chloride reservoir fluids (TDS ≤ 1200 mg/kg) are produced from fractured Miocene andesite and Cretaceous to Eocene redbeds that are hydrothermally altered. Fracture permeabillity in producing horizons is locally greater than 1500 and bulk porosity is ≤ 6%. A simple, fracture-dominated, volume-impedance model assuming turbulent flow indicates that the calculated reservoir storage capacity of each flowing hole is approximately 9.7 × 10⁶ l/(kg cm⁻²), Tritium data indicate a mean residence time of 450 yr for water in the reservoir. Multiplying the natural fluid discharge rate by the mean residence time gives an estimated water volume of the Platanares system of ≥ 0.78 km³. Downward continuation of a 139°C/km “conductive” gradient at a depth of 400 m in a third core hole implies that the depth to a 225°C source reservoir (predicted from chemical geothermometers) is at least 1.5 km. Uranium-thorium disequilibrium ages on calcite veins at the surface and in the core holes indicate that the present Platanares hydrothermal system has been active for the last 0.25 m.y.     

Particle fluxes in San Pedro Basin, California: A four-year record of sedimentation and physical forcing

Moored sediment traps were deployed from January 2004 through December 2007 at depths of 550 and 800 m in San Pedro Basin (SPB), CA (33°33.0′N, 118°26.5′W). Additionally, floating sediment traps were deployed at 100 and 200 m for periods of 12-24 h during spring 2005, fall 2007, and spring 2008. Average annual fluxes of mass, particulate organic carbon (POC), ??¹³C_org, particulate organic nitrogen (PON), ??¹⁵N-PON, biogenic silica (bSiO₂), calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), and detrital material (non-biogenic) were coupled with climate records and used to examine sedimentation patterns, vertical flux variability, and organic matter sources to this coastal region. Annual average flux values were determined by binning data by month and averaging the monthly averages. The average annual fluxes to 550 m were 516±42 mg/m² d for mass (sdom of the monthly averages, n=117), 3.18±0.26 mmol C/m² d for POC (n=111), 0.70±0.05 mmol/m² d for CaCO₃ (n=110), 1.31±0.21 mmol/m² d for bSiO₂ (n=115), and 0.35±0.03 mmol/m² d for PON (n=111). Fluxes to 800 and to 550 m were similar, within 10%. Annual average values of ??¹³C_org at 550 m were −21.8±0.2‰ (n=108), and ??¹⁵N averages were 8.9±0.2‰ (n=95). The timing of both high and low flux particle collection was synchronous between the two traps. Given the frequency of trap cup rotation (4-11 days), this argues for particle settling rates ≥83 m/d for both high and low flux periods. The moored traps were deployed over one of the wettest (2004-2005, 74.6 cm rainfall) and driest (2006-2007, 6.6 cm) rain years on record. There was poor correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient, 95% confidence interval) of detrital mass flux with: C_org/N ratio (r=0.10, p=0.16); ??¹⁵N (r=−0.19, p=0.02); and rainfall (r=0.5, p=0.43), suggesting that runoff does not immediately cause increases in particle fluxes 15 km offshore. ??¹³C_org values suggest that most POC falling to the basin floor is marine derived. Coherence between satellite-derived chlorophyll a records from the trap location (±9 km² resolution) and SST data indicates that productivity and export occurs within a few days of upwelling and both of these parameters are reasonable predictors of POC export, with a time lag of a few days to 2 weeks (with no time lag—SeaWiFS chlorophyll a and POC flux, r=0.25, p=0.0014; chlorophyll a and bSiO₂ flux, r=0.28, p=0.0002).     

Colonization, succession, and nutrition of macrobenthic assemblages in a restored wetland at Tijuana Estuary, California

Modes of colonization, the successional trajectory, and trophic recovery of a macrofaunal community were analyzed over 19 months in the Friendship marsh, a 20-acre restored wetland in Tijuana Estuary, California. Traditional techniques for quantifying macrofaunal communities were combined with emerging stable isotopic approaches for evaluation of trophic recovery, making comparisons with a nearby natural Spartina foliosa habitat. Life history-based predictions successfully identified major colonization modes, although most taxa employed a variety of tactics for colonizing the restored marsh. The presence of S. foliosa did not seem to affect macrofaunal colonization or succession at the scale of this study. However, soil organic matter content in the restored marsh was positively correlated with insect densities, and high initial salinities may have limited the success of early colonists. Total macrofaunal densities recovered to natural marsh levels after 14 months and diversity, measured as species richness and the Shannon index (H′), was comparable to the natural marsh by 19 months. Some compositional disparities between the natural and created communities persisted after 19 months, including lower percentages of surface-feeding polychaetes (Polydora spp.) and higher percentages of dipteran insects and turbellarians in the Friendship marsh. As surficial structural similarity of infaunal communities between the Friendship and natural habitat was achieved, isotopic analyses revealed a simultaneous trajectory towards recovery of trophic structure. Enriched δ¹³C signatures of benthic microalgae and infauna, observed in the restored marsh shortly after establishment compared to natural Spartina habitat, recovered after 19 months. However, the depletion in δ¹⁵N signatures of macrofauna in the Friendship marsh indicated consumption of microalgae, particularly nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, while macroalgae and Spartina made a larger contribution to macrofaunal diets in the natural habitat. Future successional studies must continue to develop and employ novel combinations of techniques for evaluating structural and functional recovery of disturbed and created habitats.     

The use of plastic debris as nesting material by a colonial seabird and associated entanglement mortality

Entanglement with plastic debris is a major cause of mortality in marine taxa, but the population-level consequences are unknown. Some seabirds collect marine debris for nesting material, which may lead to entanglement. Here we investigate the use of plastics as nesting material by northern gannets Morus bassanus and assess the associated levels of mortality. On average gannet nests contained 469.91 g (range 0-1293 g) of plastic, equating to an estimated colony total of 18.46 tonnes (range 4.47-42.34 tonnes). The majority of nesting material was synthetic rope, which appears to be used preferentially. On average 62.85 ± 26.84 (range minima 33-109) birds were entangled each year, totalling 525 individuals over eight years, the majority of which were nestlings. Although mortality rates are high, they are unlikely to have population-level effects. The use of synthetic fibres as nesting material is a common strategy among seabirds, but the impacts of entanglement warrants further investigation.