Global Warming and Risk of Vivax Malaria in Great Britain

Malaria (ague) was once common in many parts of Great Britain (GB). Here we identify areas currently at risk from vivax malaria and examine how this pattern may change as a consequence of global warming during this century. We used a mathematical model to describe how temperature affects the risk of vivax malaria, transmitted by a common British mosquito, Anopheles atroparvus. This model was linked with present-day temperature surfaces and future temperature change scenarios for GB, and used to map areas suitable for malaria transmission. We found an excellent agreement between the present-day risk map for malaria and historical records of ague distribution. This study demonstrates that many parts of GB are warm enough for malaria transmission and the extent of these areas are likely to increase in the future. Health services need to remain aware of the possibility of locally-transmitted malaria, particularly in marshland areas in southern England. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Remediation of a major acid mine drainage point source discharge restores headwater connectivity for a diadromous native fish

Rivers receiving acid mine drainage (AMD) are frequently depauperate in fish and impacts may extend long distances downstream. AMD inputs may form chemical barriers for migratory species and isolate fish in unimpacted headwaters. We investigated the response of a diadromous fish, kōaro (Galaxias brevipinnis), to remediation of an AMD tributary in a 5th order river in New Zealand. A 2005 survey indicated limited recruitment of kōaro in the river likely due to the chemical barrier of AMD. By 2010, water treatment in the contaminated tributary had raised pH from a median value of 4.3 to 6 and reduced metals in the lower river, notably aluminium from a median of 2.48 to 0.41?mg/L. In 2012, kōaro density had increased by an order of magnitude relative to 2005. Furthermore, a greater proportion of juvenile fish were present. These results indicate that large-scale remediation of discharges can reverse the impacts of AMD on fish migration.     

A comparison between manganese nodules and cobalt crust economics in a scenario of mutual exclusivity

The past 20 years have been characterised by limited interest in the economic viability of deep seabed mining with the exception of those mineral ores rich in precious metals such as polymetallic sulphides. This paper goes against the tide. After reviewing the most significant literature, it compares the economic feasibility of mining polymetallic manganese nodules and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in a scenario of mutual exclusivity. It uses a new indicator, the cobalt-nickel price ratio, whose aim is to verify at what metal prices the net present value of the two mining projects equalises. Previous research has shown that the turning margin between manganese nodules and cobalt crusts is a cobalt price of $50/kg. The present paper revises this by showing that the choice between mining crust and nodules depends on fluctuations in the price of nickel. A Monte Carlo simulation proves that cobalt crust mining could be reasonably preferred to manganese nodules at cobalt prices of $40-60/kg if the price of nickel fell below $11/kg. Within this condition, investors would receive the minimum acceptable internal rate of return of 15%, which is at a level of risk closer to the land-based mining. However, when the price of nickel passes the $11/kg threshold, the equilibrium between the two ventures can be reached only at a cobalt price greater than $100/kg, causing cobalt crust to become uncompetitive. Finally, the paper, recognising that prices are not unique drivers, introduces legal, political, technological and environmental concerns to show that the final choice between the two mining ventures cannot be merely driven by economic issues.     

Spatial modeling of environmental vulnerability of marine finfish aquaculture using GIS-based neuro-fuzzy techniques

Combining GIS with neuro-fuzzy modeling has the advantage that expert scientific knowledge in coastal aquaculture activities can be incorporated into a geospatial model to classify areas particularly vulnerable to pollutants. Data on the physical environment and its suitability for aquaculture in an Irish fjard, which is host to a number of different aquaculture activities, were derived from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and GIS models. Subsequent incorporation into environmental vulnerability models, based on neuro-fuzzy techniques, highlighted localities particularly vulnerable to aquaculture development.The models produced an overall classification accuracy of 85.71%, with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%, and were sensitive to different input parameters. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and nitrogen concentrations in sediment associated with salmon cages showed good correlation.Neuro-fuzzy techniques within GIS modeling classify vulnerability of coastal regions appropriately and have a role in policy decisions for aquaculture site selection.     

Contrasting punctuated zircon growth in two syn-erupted rhyolite magmas from Tarawera volcano: Insights to crystal diversity in magmatic systems

Two mineralogically and chemically distinct rhyolite magmas (T1 and T3) were syn-erupted from the same conduit system during the 21.9 ka basalt intrusion-triggered Okareka eruption from Tarawera volcano, New Zealand. High spatial resolution U–Th disequilibrium dating of zircon crystals at the ~ 3–5 μm scale reveals a protracted yet discontinuous zircon crystallization history within the magmatic system. Both magma types contain zircon whose interiors predate the eruption by up to 200 ka. The dominant age peak in the T1 magma is ~ 30 ka with subordinate peaks at ~ 45, ~ 75, and ~ 100 ka, whereas the T3 magma has a dominant zircon interior age peak at ~ 90 ka with smaller modes at ~ 35 and ~ 150 ka. These patterns are consistent with isolated pockets of crystallization throughout the evolution of the system. Crystal rim analyses yield ages ranging from within error of the eruption age to at least ~ 90 ka prior to eruption, highlighting that zircon crystallization frequently stalled long before the eruption. Continuous depth profiling from crystal rims inward demonstrates protracted growth histories for individual crystals (up to ~ 100 ka) that were punctuated by asynchronous hiatuses of up to 30 ka in duration. Disparate zircon growth histories can result from localized thermal perturbations caused by mafic intrusions into a silicic reservoir. The crystal age heterogeneity at hand-sample scale requires considerable crystal transport and mixing. We propose that crystal mixing was achieved through buoyancy instabilities caused by mafic magma flow through crystal mush. A terminal pre-eruptive rejuvenation event was capable of mobilizing voluminous melts that erupted, but was too short (< 10²–10³ years) to result in extensive zircon growth. The contrasting, punctuated zircon histories argue against closed-system fractional crystallization models for silicic magmatism that require protracted cooling times following a mostly liquid starting condition.     

The importance of changing oceanography in controlling late Quaternary carbonate sedimentation on a high-energy, tropical, oceanic ramp: north-western Australia

The North West Shelf is an ocean‐facing carbonate ramp that lies in a warm‐water setting adjacent to an arid hinterland of moderate to low relief. The sea floor is strongly affected by cyclonic storms, long‐period swells and large internal tides, resulting in preferentially accumulating coarse‐grained sediments. Circulation is dominated by the south‐flowing, low‐salinity Leeuwin Current, upwelling associated with the Indian Ocean Gyre, seaward‐flowing saline bottom waters generated by seasonal evaporation, and flashy fluvial discharge. Sediments are palimpsest, a variable mixture of relict, stranded and Holocene grains. Relict intraclasts, both skeletal and lithic, interpreted as having formed during sea‐level highstands of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4, are now localized to the mid‐ramp. The most conspicuous stranded particles are ooids and peloids, which ¹⁴C dating shows formed at 15·4–12·7 Ka, in somewhat saline waters during initial stages of post‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea‐level rise. It appears that initiation of Leeuwin Current flow with its relatively less saline, but oceanic waters arrested ooid formation such that subsequent benthic Holocene sediment is principally biofragmental, with sedimentation localized to the inner ramp and a ridge of planktic foraminifera offshore. Inner‐ramp deposits are a mixture of heterozoan and photozoan elements. Depositional facies reflect episodic environmental perturbation by riverine‐derived sediments and nutrients, resulting in a mixed habitat of oligotrophic (coral reefs and large benthic foraminifera) and mesotrophic (macroalgae and bryozoans) indicators. Holocene mid‐ramp sediment is heterozoan in character, but sparse, most probably because of the periodic seaward flow of saline bottom waters generated by coastal evaporation. Holocene outer‐ramp sediment is mainly pelagic, veneering shallow‐water sediments of Marine Isotope Stage 2, including LGM deposits. Phosphate accumulations at ≈ 200 m water depth suggest periodic upwelling or Fe‐redox pumping, whereas enhanced near‐surface productivity, probably associated with the interaction between the Leeuwin Current and Indian Ocean surface water, results in a linear ridge of pelagic sediment at ≈ 140 m water depth. This ramp depositional system in an arid climate has important applications for the geological record: inner‐ramp sediments can contain important heterozoan elements, mid‐ramp sediments with bedforms created by internal tides can form in water depths exceeding 50 m, saline outflow can arrest or dramatically slow mid‐ramp sedimentation mimicking maximum flooding intervals, and outer‐ramp planktic productivity can generate locally important fine‐grained carbonate sediment bodies. Changing oceanography during sea‐level rise can profoundly affect sediment composition, sedimentation rate and packaging.     

Coarse clast ridge sequences as suitable archives for past storm events? Case study on the Houtman Abrolhos,Western Australia

Prehistoric storm records are relatively scarce in most parts of the world. This article presents storm records derived from coral rubble‐based geological archives of the Houtman Abrolhos Archipelago located off the west coast of Australia, where the southernmost coral reefs of the Indian Ocean are found. Winter storm swell from the circum‐Antarctic ‘Brave Westerlies’, as well as tropical cyclone waves, have left numerous ridge systems on dozens of islands of the archipelago, all composed of coral rubble from adjacent reefs. At three islands, seven ridge systems were dated by three different methods: U‐series (68 dates), radiocarbon (64 dates), electron spin resonance (7 dates); 139 radiometric dates span the last 5500 years of the Holocene. In contrast to the geomorphological interpretation, the age sequences show ‘inversions’, hiatuses and different ages for the same ridge, all pointing to complicated ridge formation processes. Time gaps, some exceeding 1000 years, are interpreted as phases of erosion and not as phases without storm activity. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting mass substructure in galaxy clusters: an aperture mass statistic for gravitational flexion

Gravitational flexion has been introduced as a technique by which one can map out and study substructure in clusters of galaxies. Previous analyses involving flexion have measured the individual galaxy–galaxy flexion signal, or used either parametric techniques or a Kaiser, Squires and Broadhurst (KSB)-type inversion to reconstruct the mass distribution in Abell 1689. In this paper, we present an aperture mass statistic for flexion, and apply it to the lensed images of background galaxies obtained by ray-tracing simulations through a simple analytic mass distribution and through a galaxy cluster from the Millennium Simulation. We show that this method is effective at detecting and accurately tracing structure within clusters of galaxies on subarcminute scales with high signal to noise even using a moderate background source number density and image resolution. In addition, the method provides much more information about both the overall shape and the small-scale structure of a cluster of galaxies than can be achieved through a weak lensing mass reconstruction using gravitational shear data. Lastly, we discuss how the zero-points of the aperture mass might be used to infer the masses of structures identified using this method.     

Maralinga,a metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrite found in Australia

Abstract— The Maralinga meteorite was found near the village of Maralinga, South Australia (30°18′S, 131°16′E) in 1974, but was not recognized as a meteorite until 1989. One weathered individual was recovered with a total mass of 3.38 kg. The bulk composition and petrography of Maralinga indicate that it is a metamorphosed (petrographic type 4) carbonaceous chondrite with major similarities to the Vigarano-subtype. However, recent trace element data from the literature suggest that Maralinga should be included with the CK (Karoonda-type) carbonaceous chondrites. We classify Maralinga as an anomalous CK4 chondrite because of its abundant chondrules and refractory inclusions relative to other known members of the CK group. Maralinga contains homogeneous silicates, including Ni-bearing olivines (Fa₃₄), high-Ca clinopyroxene, and rare orthopyroxene. Plagioclase is chemically heterogeneous and falls into two distinct compositional groups one of ～ An₂₀ and an ～ An₈₀ group. Highly oxidizing conditions during metamorphism of Maralinga are indicated by the abundance of magnetite and the paucity of Fe-Ni metal.