Evaluating the suitability of three gridded-datasets and their impacts on hydrological simulation at Scotty Creek in the southern Northwest Territories,Canada

In the southern Northwest Territories (NWT), long time series of historical observations of climate and hydrology are scarce. Gridded datasets have been used as an alternative to instrumental observations for climate analysis in this area, but not for driving models to understand hydrological processes in the southern NWT. The suitability of temperature and precipitation from three-gridded datasets (Australian National University Spline [ANUSPLIN], ERA-Interim, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 [MERRA-2]) as forcings for hydrological modelling in a small subcatchment in the southern NWT are assessed. Multiple statistical techniques are used to ensure that structural and temporal attributes of the observational datasets are adequately compared. Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures in gridded datasets are more similar to observations than precipitation. The ANUSPLIN temperature time series are more statistically similar to observations, based on population statistics and temporal structure, than either of ERA-Interim or MERRA-2. The gridded datasets capture the seasonal and annual seasonal variability of precipitation but with large biases. ANUSPLIN precipitation compares better with observations than either ERA-Interim or MERRA-2 precipitation. The biases in these gridded datasets affect run-off simulations. The biases in hydrological simulations are predictable from the statistical differences between gridded datasets and observations and can be used to make informed choices about their use.     

Suspended particulate matter and dynamics of the Mfolozi estuary,Kwazulu-Natal: Implications for environmental management

 The Mfolozi Estuary on the KwaZulu-Natal coast of South Africa is the most turbid estuary in Natal due to poor catchment management, leading to large quantities of suspended particulate matter (SPM) entering the estuary from the Mfolozi River. This paper quantities some of the solute and sediment dynamics in the Mfolozi Estuary where the main documented environmental concern is the periodic input of SPM from the Mfolozi Estuary to the St. Lucia system, causing reduction of light penetration and endangering biological productivity in this important nature reserve. Synoptic water level results have allowed reach mean bed shear stresses and velocities to be calculated for an observed neap tidal cycle. Results indicate that ebb velocities dominate the sediment transport processes in the estuary when fluvial input in the Mfolozi River is of the order of 15–20 m³ s^–1. Observed and predicted flood tide velocities are too low (<0.35 m s^–1) to suspend and transport significant amounts of SPM. Observed results indicate that although the SPM load entering the estuary is dominantly from the Mfolozi River, the Msunduzi River flow plays a major role in the composition of the estuary's salinity and velocity fields. It is calculated that the Mfolozi Estuary would fill with sediment in 1.3 years if it was cut off from the sea. The major fluvial flood events help maintain the estuary by periodically pushing sediment seawards (spit progrades seawards 5 m yr^–1) and scouring and maintaining the main flow channel in the estuary. During low fluvial flow conditions, tidal flow velocities will become the dominant control on sediment transport in the estuary. Interchange of SPM between the St. Lucia and Mfolozi estuaries under present conditions is complicated by the strong transverse velocity shear between the two systems at their combined mouth. This is creating a salinity-maintained axial convergence front that suppresses mixing of solutes and SPM between the systems for up to 10 h of the tidal cycle during observed conditions. Received: 22 May 1995 · Accepted: 31 July 1995     

Shelf morphology and surficial sediment off Central and Northern South West Africa (Namibia)

The continental margin is divisible in two at latitude 18°40/S based on the shelf morphology and the composition of the surficial sediment. North of this latitude, the Kunene Shelf is narrow (Av. 44 km) with a terrigenous sediment cover whereas southwards from there, the Walvis Shelf is wide (Av. 119 km), deep (Av. shelf-break depth 361 m), and dominated by biogenic components. Locally, the Walvis Shelf is sculptured by basement faulting and marginal fractures and the inner shelf has been modified by upbuilding. Sediment slumping on the slopes of both regions was a common phenomenon during the Quaternary. Reproduced under Copyright Authority 7628 of 26/2/81 of the Government Printer of the Republic of South Africa.     

Palaeoenvironmental changes of the last two millennia on the western and northern Svalbard shelf

The western and northern Svalbard continental margins (European Arctic) are environmentally sensitive areas that are dependent on the northward flow of Atlantic Water, the largest heat source of the Arctic Ocean. Two marine sediment records from the Svalbard shelf: Kongsfjorden Trough and Hinlopen Trough, were analysed with regard to the benthic foraminiferal content and lithology to assess the palaeoceanographic evolution during the past two millennia with decadal to multi‐decadal temporal resolution. In both records, an overall gradual decrease of E. excavatum f. clavata during the past two millennia reflects a change towards generally warmer and less glacially influenced conditions, presumably related to enhanced inflow of Atlantic Water (AW). The influence of AW also varied on centennial time scales, as evidenced by faunal and sedimentary shifts occurring almost synchronously at both locations. The period from AD 700 to 1200 was characterized by enhanced inflow of AW, followed by the development of highly productive oceanographic fronts at both localities from AD 1200 to 1500. In contrast, the subsequent interval (AD 1500–1900) shows particularly harsh conditions in the Hinlopen Trough, with significantly reduced foraminiferal flux and sediment input related to perennial sea ice cover. In Kongsfjorden, less severe conditions were observed, indicating that the AW advection continued. The synchronicity of changes in both records demonstrates the effect of the variability in inflow of AW to the Svalbard region during the past 2000 years. Moreover, the records seem to follow climate anomalies, for example the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period, found in the North Atlantic realm.     

Evaluating young fluvial terrace riser degradation using a nonlinear transport model: Application to the Kongur Normal Fault in the Pamir,northwest China

Selecting an appropriate hillslope transport model and calibrating model parameters are essential for morphological dating of fault and fluvial scarps. In this paper, we refine the method of profile-based morphologic dating by updating the representation of nonlinearity in sediment flux dependence on the hillslope gradient. We apply this revised method to fluvial scarps bounding fluvial terraces offset along the Kongur Normal Fault in the semi-arid high-altitude Pamir mountains, northwestern China. One of these terraces, the T3 surface, is dated to 7.0^+1.9/_−1.6 kyr using ¹⁰Be cosmogenic depth profile analysis. Well-preserved, dated terraces make this an ideal site to test the utility of morphological modelling in constraining ages of the young terrace risers. To do this, 35 topographic swath profiles across the terrace risers are extracted from a 0.2 m-resolution digital elevation model produced using structure from motion from photos collected by an unmanned aerial vehicle. The best estimates of morphological age are 13.9 ± 1.3 m² for the riser T3/T4 and 11.9 ± 1.3 m² for T2/T3 using a linear diffusion approach. These two morphological ages overlap within uncertainty and fail to distinguish between two young terrace risers. Alternatively, we employed a nonlinear diffusion model, calibrated with transport constant k = 1 m² kyr⁻¹, nonlinearity n = 2, and critical gradient S_c = tan(33°). This nonlinear model produces ages of 7.3 ± 0.5 kyr for T3/T4 and 4.0 ± 0.2 kyr for T2/T3; these ages are consistent with terrace surface ages deduced by using vertical offset divided by independently determining average throw rate. This comparison shows the advantage of a nonlinear model in defining ages of young scarps. Furthermore, we explored the minor effect of heterogeneous degradation along steep sections of the scarp profiles. The nonlinear scarp modelling scheme we develop in this paper is suitable for studying scarp degradation in other regions. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying risk to agriculture from volcanic ashfall: a case study from the Bay of Plenty,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - Quantitatively assessing long-term volcanic risk can be challenging due to the many variables associated with volcanic hazard and vulnerability. This study presents a structured...     

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the geochemistry of major and minor particulate and selected dissolved elements of Thermaikos Gulf, Northwestern Aegean Sea

The objectives of this study were to examine both spatial and temporal changes of particulate major elements and minor metals, as well as dissolved Mn and Cd, in the waters of Thermaikos Gulf. Collections of water and suspended particulate matter (SPM), as depth profiles (5–8 depths), were undertaken at 10 principal stations, essentially on a N–S traverse of the western side of the Gulf.One of the principal aims of the study was to observe if there was any change in the patterning of the elements between the three occupations of the stations: (a) in September 2001, immediately before the commencement of trawling; (b) in October 2001, whilst fishing was active; and (c) in winter/early spring conditions (February 2002), when fishing was still active, but after a change of river/atmospheric conditions.Bottom (20 m) waters were dominated by sediment resuspension; this was identified by concentration changes in the aluminosilicate elements (e.g. Al, Ti, K, Fe) of the SPM. A two- to three-fold increase occurred between September and October, caused probably by trawling; this was sustained at the offshore stations, in February. During February, the western inshore stations showed little sediment resuspension, caused by extreme winter cooling and the sinking of water. Consequently, a N–S density discontinuity existed at all water depths, which prevented the thermohaline cyclonic circulation from penetrating into the western seaboard of the Gulf. The distribution of dissolved and particulate Mn in the lower waters was due to redox cycling of the element at the benthic boundary; this was more intense in the north, where the organic supply was higher.Biogenic element concentrations and Ca/Al, Si/Al ratios showed no evidence that trawling activity promoted higher biological production. Strong correlations of Co, Cr, Ni and V, with Al and K, showed that these elements were associated strongly with detrital aluminosilicates. However, the variable association of Cd, Pb and Zn, with K (and Al), especially in the upper waters, implied an anthropogenic source derived from the rivers and the city of Thessaloniki. Examination of the Kd's of Cd showed a two-order of magnitude decrease with depth, caused by resuspension and possible advection of relatively unpolluted sediments, into the western Gulf.