Using GIS to Model Incidence, Prevalence and Spread of Non-legal Drug Use

Current methods for estimating the incidence and prevalence of non‐legal drug use tend to be retrospective and are not capable of forecasting spatial characteristics. This paper details the development of a GIS model for forecasting and displaying spatio‐temporal trends in non‐legal drug use. It builds upon a current model that estimates levels of drug use, using GIS to develop and visualise the spatial dimension and to predict levels of use for unknown locations using radial basis functions with a thin spline interpolator. The model is calibrated against known data for the onset and spread of heroin use. Results of validation and cross validation of the interpolated surfaces give some confidence to the accuracy of the method. It provides a first stage in a process to develop more complex models that might be used to examine the introduction of new drug use practices, socio‐economic characteristics of different drug use habits, harm reduction measures or to further examine the role of space in the spread of drug use.     

Detecting and Enumerating New Building Structures Utilizing Very‐High Resolution Imaged Data and Image Processing

Abstract

Information on the number and type of new building structures is required by urban and transportation planners and the real estate industry. The goal of this paper is to explore the potential of high resolution imagery for meeting public and private sector demands for information on new buildings. The value of 1 m, 5 m, and 10 m panchromatic and 1 m color scanned aerial photography images acquired in 1997 and 1998 for a study area within the City of San Diego, California is assessed for general change detection and building enumeration. Both semi‐automated and interactive change‐detection approaches are evaluated. We demonstrate that interactive, visual‐based approaches appear to be the most accurate (within 1% of actual count) and efficient approach for generating information on the number of new buildings associated with single family residential land use. More automated approaches to detecting and enumerating image microfeatures may be useful as enhancements for visual‐based assessments and may be practical in areas composed mostly of large buildings associated with commercial and industrial land use. The highest accuracy for automated approaches was an undercounting of 11% for residential buildings and overcounting of 20% for those associated with commercial and industrial land use.     

A Parcel Shape Index for Use in Land Consolidation Planning

Area shape analysis has been a subject of focus for research in geography and other disciplines for many years. However, existing area shape indices present significant weaknesses for the analysis of land parcels in an agricultural context as they do not measure shape in an appropriate, reliable or explicit manner. This article presents a new parcel shape index (PSI) which integrates six geometric parameters through multi‐attribute decision‐making, combined with value functions for parameter standardization. The superior performance of the new PSI in relation to three existing indices is demonstrated through a case study area in Cyprus. The methodology can be applied in other contexts aimed at assessing the quality of a particular shape compared to an optimum.     

Strengthened East Asian summer monsoons during a period of high-latitude warmth? Isotopic evidence from Mio-Pliocene fossil mammals and soil carbonates from northern China

The East Asian monsoons have fluctuated in concert with high-latitude warmth during the past several hundred thousand years, with humid summer monsoon-dominant climates characterizing warm intervals, including interglacials and interstadials, and arid winter monsoon-dominant climates characterizing cool intervals, including glacials and stadials. Of the states comprising the mid-Pleistocene to recent climatic regime, interglacials are most similar in terms of high latitude ice volumes and temperatures to those extant during the late Miocene and early Pliocene. Thus, an important question is whether Mio-Pliocene climates in northern China were analogous to a hypothetical ‘prolonged interglacial state,’ with increased summer monsoon precipitation and expansion of forest and steppe environments at the expense of desert environments.We utilize new and previously published carbon isotopic data from fossil teeth and soil carbonates to place constraints on paleovegetation distributions and to help infer the behavior of the monsoon system between ～ 7 and 4 Ma. We find that plants using the C₄ photosynthetic pathway—which today are largely grasses found in regions with warm season precipitation—were present in northern China by late Miocene time, demonstrating that the C₄ expansion in China was not significantly delayed compared to the global C₄ event. During the late Miocene–early Pliocene interval, soil carbonate and tooth enamel δ¹³C data indicate: 1) that nearly pure C₃-plant ecosystems existed in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), and therefore ecosystems there were dominated by woody dicot, herbaceous dicot, or cool-season grass vegetation (or a combination of these), and 2) that the CLP was characterized by a pattern of northward-increasing C₄ vegetation and aridity. Utilizing a broadened conceptual model for interpreting δ¹³C data, and citing independent faunal, floral, and lithostratgraphic data, we suggest that these patterns reflect northward expansion of forest and steppe ecosystems and relatively humid monsoon climates during the late Miocene and early Pliocene. An important implication of this interpretation is that the forcing mechanism illuminated by the temporal correlation during the Pleistocene between warm high latitudes and strong East Asian summer monsoons is a robust feature of the Eurasian tectonic–climatic system that predates the Plio-Pleistocene climatic reorganization.     

Defining and detecting undesirable disturbance in the context of marine eutrophication

An understanding of undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms is needed to diagnose marine eutrophication as defined by EU Directives and OSPAR. This review summarizes the findings of the UK Defra-funded Undesirable Disturbance Study Team, which concluded that 'an undesirable disturbance is a perturbation of a marine ecosystem that appreciably degrades the health or threatens the sustainable human use of that ecosystem'. A methodology is proposed for detecting disturbance of temperate salt-water communities dominated by phytoplanktonic or phytobenthic primary producers. It relies on monitoring indicators of ecosystem structure and vigour, which are components of health. Undesirable disturbance can be diagnosed by accumulating evidence of ecohydrodynamic type-specific changes in: (i) bulk indicators; (ii) frequency statistics; (iii) flux measurements; (iv) structural indicators; and (v) indicator species. These are exemplified by (i) chlorophyll, transparency, dissolved oxygen, and opportunistic seaweed cover; (ii) HABs frequency; (iii) primary production; (iv) benthic and planktonic 'trophic indices'; (v) seagrasses and Nephrops norvegicus. Ecological Quality Objectives are proposed for some of these. Linking the diagnosis to eutrophication requires correlation of changes with nutrient enrichment. The methodology, which requires the development of a plankton community index and emphasizes the importance of primary production as an indicator of vigour, can be harmonized with the EU Water Framework Directive and OSPAR's Strategy to Combat Eutrophication.     

Divergent evolution in fluviokarst landscapes of central Kentucky

Central Kentucky is characterized by a mixture of karst and ?uvial features, typically manifested as mosaic of karst‐rich/channel‐poor (KRCP) and channel‐rich/karst‐poor (CRKP) environments. At the regional scale the location and distribution of KRCP and CRKP areas are not always systematically related to structural, lithological, topographic, or other controls. This study examines the relationship of KRCP and CRKP zones along the Kentucky River gorge area, where rapid incision in the last 1·5 million years has lowered local base levels and modi?ed slopes on the edge of the inner bluegrass plateau. At the scale of detailed ?eld mapping on foot within a 4 km² area, the development of karst and ?uvial features is controlled by highly localized structural and topographic constraints, and can be related to slope changes associated with retreat of the Kentucky River gorge escarpment. A conceptual model of karst/?uvial transitions is presented, which suggests that minor, localized variations are suf?cient to trigger a karst–?uvial or ?uvial–karst switch when critical slope thresholds are crossed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

The unique environment of the most acidified permanently meromictic lake in the Czech Republic

Changes in the water properties and biological characteristics of the highly acidic Hromnice Lake (Western Bohemia) were investigated. This 110-year-old lake, formed as a consequence of the mining of pyritic shales, is permanently meromictic. Two chemoclines separate an extremely acidic (pH ～ 2.6) mixolimnion from a metal-rich anoxic monimolimnion. The absence of spring mixolimnetic turnover due to ice melting and very slow heat propagation through the chemocline with a 6-month delay were observed. Extreme mixolimnetic oxygen maxima (up to 31 mg l^?1) in phosphorus-rich lake (PO₄^3? up to 1.6 mg l^?1) well correlated with outbursts of phytoplankton. Phytoplankton consist of several acido-tolerant species of the genera Coccomyxa, Lepocinclis, Chlamydomonas and Chromulina. Surface phytoplankton biomass expressed as chlorophyll-a varies from 2 to 140 μg l^?1. Multicellular zooplankton are almost absent with the exception of Cephalodella acidophila, a small rotifer occurring in low numbers. Large red larvae of the midge Chironomus gr. plumosus were found at the bottom close to the shore, with larvulae in the open water. Developmental stages (protonemata) of a moss, resembling filamentous algae, dwell in the otherwise plant-free littoral zone.     

Water table variations in Atacama Desert alluvial fans: discussion of “Evidence of short-term groundwater recharge signal propagation from the Andes to the central Atacama Desert: a singular spectrum analysis approach”*

ABSTRACT

Using a statistical approach, Scheihing attempts to demonstrate the direct influence of recharge events in the Precordillera and the Andean Piedmont on water table variations in downstream alluvial fans. The author “unquestionably” discards the existence of ephemeral recharge processes in alluvial fans although they are frequently impacted by major floods. However, the author does not consider previous publications about recharge processes in arid alluvial fans, the hydraulic setting of the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) and anthropogenic pressure changes in the PTA. Because the sustainable management of groundwater resources in drylands depends on a good understanding of hydrogeological processes, we propose a thorough reinterpretation of the short- and long-term PTA water table variations addressed by the author. In this comment, we illustrate the limits of the sole use of a statistical approach for characterizing both recharge processes and factors controlling the water table variations in the Atacama Desert.