Astrochronology of the late Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay (Dorset,England) and implications for Earth system processes

The Late Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation (KCF) is an economically important, organic-rich source rock of Kimmeridgian–Early Tithonian age. The main rock types of the KCF in Dorset, UK, include grey to black laminated shale, marl, coccolithic limestone, and dolostone, which occur with an obvious cyclicity at astronomical timescales. In this study, we examine two high-resolution borehole records (Swanworth Quarry 1 and Metherhills 1) obtained as part of a Rapid Global Geological Events (RGGE) sediment drilling project. Datasets examined were total organic carbon (TOC), and borehole wall microconductivity by Formation Microscanner (FMS). Our intent is to assess the rhythmicity of the KCF with respect to the astronomical timescale, and to discuss the results with respect to other key Late Jurassic geological processes. Power spectra of the untuned data reveal a hierarchy of cycles throughout the KCF with ～ 167 m, ～ 40 m, 9.1 m, 3.8 m and 1.6 m wavelengths. Tuning the ～ 40 m cycles to the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle shows the presence of all the astronomical parameters: eccentricity, obliquity, and precession index. In particular, ～ 100-kyr and 405-kyr eccentricity cycles are strongly expressed in both records. The 405-kyr eccentricity cycle corresponds to relative sea-level changes inferred from sequence stratigraphy. Intervals with elevated TOC are associated with strong obliquity forcing. The 405-kyr-tuned duration of the lower KCF (Kimmeridgian Stage) is 3.47 Myr, and the upper KCF (early part of the Tithonian Stage, elegans to fittoni ammonite zones) is 3.32 Myr. Two other chronologies test the consistency of this age model by tuning ～ 8–10 m cycles to 100-kyr (short eccentricity), and ～ 3–5 m cycles to 36-kyr (Jurassic obliquity). The ‘obliquity-tuned’ chronology resolves an accumulation history for the KCF with a variation that strongly resembles that of Earth's orbital eccentricity predicted for 147.2 Ma to 153.8 Ma. There is evidence for significant non-deposition (up to 1 million years) in the lowermost KCF (baylei–mutabilis zones), which would indicate a Kimmeridgian/Oxfordian boundary age of 154.8 Ma. This absolute calibration allows assignment of precise numerical ages to zonal boundaries, sequence surfaces, and polarity chrons of the lower M-sequence.     

Diatom assemblage dynamics during abrupt climate change: the response of lacustrine diatoms to Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles during the last glacial period

The sedimentary record from the paleolake at Les Echets in eastern France allowed a reconstruction of the lacustrine response to several abrupt climate shifts during the last glacial period referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles. The high-resolution diatom stratigraphy has revealed distinct species turnover events and large fluctuations in stable oxygen isotope values in diatom frustules, as a response to DO climate variability. More or less identical species compositions became re-established during each DO stadial and interstadial phases, respectively. However, the relative abundance of the most dominant species within these assemblages varies and might indicate differences in climatic conditions. Interstadial phases are characterized by identical species successions. Transitions from stadial to interstadial conditions show a distinct Fragilaria–Cyclotella succession, which resembles the diatom regime shifts that have been recognized in some lakes in the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-nineteenth century.     

Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation.     

Dynamical mass estimates of young massive clusters in NGC1140 and M83

We present virial mass estimates of young massive clusters (YMCs) in the starburst galaxies NGC1140 and M83, determined from high spectral resolution VLT echelle spectroscopy and high spatial resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging. The survivability of such clusters is important in testing the scenario that YMCs are potentially proto-globular clusters. As young clusters, they lie in the domain in which dynamical masses appear to overestimate true cluster masses, most likely due to the clusters not being virialised. We find that the dynamical mass of NGC1140-1 is approximately ten times greater than its photometric mass. We propose that the most likely explanation for this disparity is the crowded environment of NGC1140-1, rather than this being solely due to a lack of virial equilibrium.     

Automated mechanism generation. Part 1: mechanism development and rate constant estimation for VOC chemistry in the atmosphere

A framework for automated mechanism generation for modeling atmospheric chemistry at the mechanistic level was developed. In part 1, categorization of reactions into reaction families and determination of rate coefficients using a hierarchical approach that uses experimental data and kinetic correlations are described. The main focus was to develop kinetic correlations for estimating rate coefficients that are not available experimentally, and the main correlation used was the Evans–Polanyi relationship that relates the activation energy to the heat of reaction. A hierarchical scheme for calculating heats of reaction and other thermodynamic properties was developed. The rate constants calculated using the proposed correlations are in most cases within an order of magnitude of available experimental values, and 82% are within a factor of five.     

Analysis of post-disaster damage and disruptive impacts on the operating status of small businesses after Hurricane Katrina

When small businesses are impacted by natural hazard events, hazard and sociological researchers may have access to collect data from a sample of open businesses, in hopes of distilling lessons that might help reduce vulnerability to future disasters. Lessons from demised businesses might be more useful in reducing business closure for increasing business sustainability to disasters. Using interviews from a random sample of 371 open and 126 closed businesses’ experiences with Hurricane Katrina, discrete choice methods examine the relationship between the impact of post-disaster damage, loss of lifelines, types of delays in reopening, and cascading damages on business continuity. This unique sample offers the opportunity to determine whether damage to operating businesses was different than that of demised businesses. Respondents provided pre-Katrina data up through the last interviews in 2013. Results demonstrate that damage may have a short-term effect on operating status; it was associated with immediate demise but had much less effect on longer-term recovery. Additionally, it is evident that there is one path to failure. Businesses that did reopen, but later closed, may have been impacted by a cascade of both exogenous and endogenous shocks.     

A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future

Using studies of places where heat waves are common, projected changes in heat waves in Metro Vancouver are assessed from a multi-disciplinary perspective with respect to the potential impacts of the physical change on the people and infrastructure with the intention of being better prepared for future events. Trends in maximum temperature parameters for Metro Vancouver for the past 75 years are generally not statistically significant; however, projections for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 suggest that the region will experience such events more frequently in the future due to climate change. While Metro Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) generally does not typically experience heat waves it was strongly affected by a major heat event in July 2009, with temperature records being broken at Vancouver (≥31 °C) on the coast and at Abbotsford (≥36 °C) 65-km inland. A lack of sea breeze during this event meant that there was no cooling effect, and land surface temperatures over the downtown area approached 40 °C and excess deaths occurred. Many victims were either in the 65–74 age category, the vulnerable poor, or people with mental health issues. Because these events are rare, many buildings lack air-conditioning, and residents of Metro Vancouver under-anticipate their vulnerability. The costs of health-related impacts outweighed those related to higher electricity usage.     

Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.     

High-resolution chronology for the Mesoamerican urban center of Teotihuacan derived from Bayesian statistics of radiocarbon and archaeological data

A high-resolution ¹⁴C chronology for the Teopancazco archaeological site in the Teotihuacan urban center of Mesoamerica was generated by Bayesian analysis of 33 radiocarbon dates and detailed archaeological information related to occupation stratigraphy, pottery and archaeomagnetic dates. The calibrated intervals obtained using the Bayesian model are up to ca. 70% shorter than those obtained with individual calibrations. For some samples, this is a consequence of plateaus in the part of the calibration curve covered by the sample dates (2500 to 1450 ¹⁴C yr BP). Effects of outliers are explored by comparing the results from a Bayesian model that incorporates radiocarbon data for two outlier samples with the same model excluding them. The effect of outliers was more significant than expected. Inclusion of radiocarbon dates from two altered contexts, 500 ¹⁴C yr earlier than those for the first occupational phase, results in ages calculated by the model earlier than the archaeological records. The Bayesian chronology excluding these outliers separates the first two Teopancazco occupational phases and suggests that ending of the Xolalpan phase was around cal AD 550, 100 yr earlier than previously estimated and in accordance with previously reported archaeomagnetic dates from lime plasters for the same site.