太阳能光伏发电预报方法的应用效果检验与评价

基于湖北省气象新能源研究中心光伏电站一年完整的发电数据与同期气象资料,对辐射和发电功率短期预报方法进行检验分析,结果表明:(1)太阳辐射度预报与实况有很好的对应关系,相关系数在0.77以上,均通过a=0.001的显著性水平检验。(2)光伏发电功率预报的短期方法中,以模式辐照度订正值代入光电转换模型的方法最优,预报第一天的相对均方根误差为0.16。(3)太阳辐射预报及光伏发电功率预报随太阳高度角变化而呈一定的规律性,冬季中午误差最大,夏季晚上误差最小;阴雨天气误差明显高于晴天。如何降低阴雨天气预报时的误差将是下一步工作中需要研究的重点。     

胶东金矿集区硫和碳的循环与控矿作用

胶东金矿集区矿石中普遍含金属硫化物和碳酸盐矿物,某些矿床中还见有富含炭质的断裂破碎带.成矿溶液中含有大量的SO4^2-、HCO3^-、CO2和有机质等的含硫和含碳组分.矿石硫同位素组成明显富集重硫,结合胶东金矿主要成矿时期（早白垩世）特殊的地质背景、同期海水硫酸盐δ^34S平均值（约＋16‰）及现代海水沿NE-NNE向断裂倒灌情况,笔者认为,硫的主要来源与海水硫的大量补给有关.而根据碳、氧同位素组成特征分析,形成金矿床中方解石的物源有很大一部分来自前寒武系碳酸盐岩.浅表环境下成矿金属元素及硫、碳等物质在热液对流系统中的大规模循环是成矿的关键,SO4^2-与S2^-之间的临界转化是制约成矿金属元素活化-迁移-聚集的重要因素,而含碳组分（CO3^2-、HCO3^-、CO2和有机质）则有利于Au、Cu、Pb、Zn等元素的活化和迁移,含硫和含碳组分的循环及有关的物理化学反应之间有明显的关联性.     

热带风压场平衡特征及其对GRAPES系统中同化预报的影响研究I:平衡特征分析

本文基于GRAPES全球模式的短期预报误差样本,利用赤道波动正规模态研究了热带风、压场平衡特征,并根据这些特征分析了线性平衡方程(LBE)在该区域应用时存在的问题。结果表明:(1)赤道波动能成功解释热带短期预报误差样本的大部分分量,对流层中层为60%~80%,对流层顶和平流层低层为80%以上。(2)在可解释的误差方差中,赤道罗斯贝波(ER)占比仅为30%~55%,其他赤道波动的作用不可忽视。(3)在ER模态基础上引入其他赤道波动会大幅削弱原有风、压场平衡约束,重力惯性波与Kelvin波的作用最为显著。此时,对流层中层位势高度h与u风、v风间的约束接近于零,而平流层低层h-u的平衡特征由Kelvin波主导。(4)LBE主要表达了ER模态下的风、压场平衡特征,与实际情形相比高估了热带风、压场的耦合程度,进一步的改进中需削弱这一虚假平衡,使得热带风、压场分析变得更加独立。     

Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

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我国煤田钻探技术的研究进展

介绍了煤田地质勘探系统近年来在钻探科研生产方面所取得的新成果;研制和开发出的钻探新设备、新机具、新材料、新技术和新工艺以及这些成果在生产实践中所起的作用和取得的经济效益。     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Position-domain integrity risk-based ambiguity validation for the integer bootstrap estimator

Integrity monitoring for ambiguity resolution is of significance for utilizing the high-precision carrier phase differential positioning for safety–critical navigational applications. The integer bootstrap estimator can provide an analytical probability density function, which enables the precise evaluation of the integrity risk for ambiguity validation. In order to monitor the effect of unknown ambiguity bias on the integer bootstrap estimator, the position-domain integrity risk of the integer bootstrapped baseline is evaluated under the complete failure modes by using the worst-case protection principle. Furthermore, a partial ambiguity resolution method is developed in order to satisfy the predefined integrity risk requirement. Static and kinematic experiments are carried out to test the proposed method by comparing with the traditional ratio test method and the protection level-based method. The static experimental result has shown that the proposed method can achieve a significant global availability improvement by 51% at most. The kinematic result reveals that the proposed method obtains the best balance between the positioning accuracy and the continuity performance.     

青海煤炭资源勘查开发的生态地质条件分析

本文基于对青海省内不同含煤盆地资源赋存地质规律的认识,结合赋煤构造单元划分和生态功能分区方案,将青海省划分为沙漠戈壁、草甸湿地、高原山地、冰川河源和高山河谷五大生态赋煤区,研究和分析了不同赋煤区的资源、生态和经济特征,提出研究资源勘查开发与生态环境保护、经济发展之间的关系,认为柴北缘沙漠戈壁生态赋煤区下一步资源勘查勘查开发的重点区域,祁连山草甸湿地生态赋煤区需在做好生态保护的前提下开展资源勘查开发,其他分区的资源均在资源、经济与生态方面不同时具备条件。     

The characteristics of the seismic signals induced by landslides using a coupling of discrete element and finite difference methods

Landslide seismic signals support researchers to estimate magnitudes and locations of landslides. They can serve as a crucial data for landslide warning systems. However, the randomness of landslide locations makes the acquisition of landslide-induced seismic signals difficult and limits the number of available field data. The objectives of this study are to establish a numerical modeling approach to examine the characteristics of seismic signals induced by landslides and perform parametrical study. The two-dimensional particle flow code (PFC) and Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua (FLAC) are coupled to simulate the landslide process. The force and velocity data at the coupled interfaces of FLAC and PFC are transferred back and forth via a Socket I/O connection. Four locations were monitored for the induced vertical seismic signals, including velocity, acceleration, and stress histories. The signals were analyzed by Hilbert-Huang transform to obtain the time-frequency spectrograms for examining the characteristics of the signals. The particle size, wall friction, particle friction, and parallel bond of PFC input parameters were parametrically investigated. The Xiaolin landslide in 2009 was successfully simulated, and the characteristics of the seismic signals were studied and compared with the data from a broadband seismic station. These results demonstrate that terrain and transition in the movement type of a complex landslide do influence the seismic signals. A landslide with larger rock particles generates lower-frequency content seismic signals. Also, there can be approximately 40 s to escape before a large-scale landslide hits if seismic instrumentation is installed. The method proposed can be further applied for studies on many other large-scale rock avalanches to verify recorded signals and further correlate the signals with the landslide characteristics.     

有机化学物质碳氮稳定同位素系列标准物质研制

实验室和研究人员所使用的碳、氮同位素标准物质一般由国际原子能机构(IAEA)获得,然而近年来,随着碳氮同位素在实验室质量监控、方法评价、仪器校准等方面的广泛应用,市场需求量不断增加, IAEA研制的碳、氮同位素标准物质的种类与数量逐渐不能满足科学研究快速发展的需求。我国急需研制适应当今分析技术水平的有机质碳氮同位素国家标准物质用以进行质量监控、方法评价、仪器校准。为保证量值传递精度,本文研制了4个有机化学物质的碳氮稳定同位素标准物质,其中3个为尿素样品,1个为L-谷氨酸。经检验4种标准物质的均匀性通过F值检验,标准物质的δ~(13)C和δ~(15)N值经过一年的稳定性检验,特征量值变化在测量方法允许的不确定度范围内,由此判定δ~(13)C和δ~(15)N值稳定性良好。由包括研制单位实验室在内的12家实验室协同定值,采用高温燃烧-气体同位素质谱法测定了δ~(13)C和δ~(15)N值,系列标准物质δ~(13)C和δ~(15)N认定值区间呈梯度分布,δ~(13)C值为-40‰～0‰,δ~(15)N值为-10‰～30‰,涵盖了我国天然样品中有机质碳氮稳定同位素组成范围;研制的系列标准物质δ~(13)C的定值扩展不确定度不大于0.08‰,δ~(15)N的定值扩展不确定度不大于0.09‰,定值水平与国际标准物质相当。该系列标准物质已被国家质检总局批准为国家一级标准物质,批准号为GBW04494～GBW04497。可被用于地质、生态、环境等多种样品δ~(13)C和δ~(15)N比值测定时的分析监控、仪器校准、方法评价、质量保证和质量监控。