卫星轨道预报的一种分析方法

人造地球卫星的轨道预报是空间环境监测和实时跟踪测量中一个重要环节，由于监测对象众多，要求精度也不太高，通常采用分析法预报．在已有分析法得到t时刻平均根数的基础上给出一种轨道预报方法，由t时刻的平均根数给出该时刻卫星的位置和速度，在此基础上将地球非球形引力摄动的周期项直接用卫星直角坐标的位置和速度分量表示，这样可以避免在计算轨道根数变化的周期项时出现的奇点问题，从而对根数的选择无特殊要求，可适用于各种轨道，简化预报程序和相应的软件，提高预报效率。     

On some applications of invariant manifolds

Taking transfer orbits of a collinear libration point probe, a lunar probe and an interplanetary probe as examples, some applications of stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the restricted three-body problem are discussed. Research shows that transfer energy is not necessarily conserved when invariant manifolds are used. For the cases in which the transfer energy is conserved, the cost is a much longer transfer time.     

Formation flying in elliptic orbits with the J2 perturbation

Relative dynamics between the chief satellite and the deputy ones in formation flying is crucial to maintaining the formation. A good choice of the formation usually requires a lower control frequency or less control energy. For formation flying missions in highly elliptic orbits, the well-known C-W equation is not accurate enough. Instead, Lawden’s equation is often used. First, the solution to Lawden’s equation with a very simple form is deduced. Then the J2 perturbation is added. It is found that Lawden’s solution is not necessarily valid when the J2 perturbation is considered. Completely discarding Lawden’s solution and borrowing the idea of mean orbit elements, two rules to initialize the formation are proposed. The deviation speed is greatly reduced. Different from previous studies on the J2 perturbation, except for the relatively simple expression for the semi-major axis, the tedious formulae of the long period terms and the short period terms of other orbital elements are not used. In addition, the deviation speed is further reduced by compensation of the nonlinear effects. Finally, a loose control strategy of the formation is proposed. To test the robustness of this strategy, a third body perturbation is added in numerical simulations.     

Spectral energy distributions for TeV blazars

In this work, we collected a sample of 69 TeV blazars from TeVCat, obtained their multiwavelength observations, and fitted their spectral energy distributions by using a second degree polynomial function. The structure parameters of synchrotron bumps for 68 blazars and those of inverseCompton bumps for 56 blazars were derived. Then, we conducted statistical analysis on the parameters(curvature, peak frequency, peak luminosity, bolometric luminosity and X/γ-ray spectral indexes).From our analysis and discussions, we can conclude the following:(1) There is a clear positive correlation between the synchrotron peak frequency, log ν_p~s, and the inverse-Compton peak frequency, log ν_p~(IC),and between the synchrotron peak luminosity, log ν_p~sL_(νp)~s, and the inverse-Compton peak luminosity,log ν_p~(IC)L_(νp)~(IC).(2) The correlation between the peak frequency and the curvature of synchrotron bump is clearly different from that of the inverse-Compton bump, which further indicates that there are different emission mechanisms between them.(3) There is a correlation between log νIC pand γ-ray spectral index, α_γ, for the TeV blazars: log ν_p~(IC)=-(4.59 ± 0.30)α_γ+(32.67 ± 0.59), which is consistent with previous work.(4) An "L-shape" relation is found between log ν_p~s and α_X for both TeV blazars and Fermi blazars. A significant correlation between log νs pand X-ray photon index(α_X) is found for the TeV blazars with high synchrotron peak frequency: log ν_p~s=-(3.20 ± 0.34)α_X+(24.33 ± 0.79),while the correlation is positive for low synchrotron peaked TeV sources.(5) In the αX-αγdiagram,there is also an "L-shape." The anti-correlation is consistent with results available in the literature, and we also find a positive correlation between them.(6) Inverse-Compton dominant sources have luminous bolometric luminosities.     

地震区多层石结构抗震抗剪能力的模糊可靠性分析

本文通过考虑地震烈度的随机性和模糊性,以及石结构强度破坏等级界限的模糊性,研究多层石结构抗震抗剪能力的可靠性问题.将地震地面运动模拟为含有模糊烈度参数的平稳过滤有色噪声的随机过程,引入抗剪强度破坏指数,建立了石结构抗震抗剪能力的模糊安全准则,为研究多层石结构的抗震抗剪能力可靠性提供了一个合理的评定方法。     

大跨度桥梁强震动数字监测系统的研制

主跨1 196 m的龙江特大桥是我国第一座位于高烈度地震区的大跨度悬索桥,频繁的地震活动对大桥结构安全构成严重威胁。大桥建设时建立了健康监测系统,其中包含多个结构地震反应观测点,随后布设了场地强震动观测系统,这是对大桥地震响应观测的进一步补充和完善。本文详细介绍场地强震动观测系统的设计方案、系统构成、通信方式等。该系统获取的观测结果,可为龙江大桥在地震作用下结构健康诊断提供依据,为大桥结构地震响应分析提供可靠的地震动输入,有助于了解大桥结构在地震动作用下的反应特征, 提高大跨桥梁的抗震设计水平。     

广西贺州地区气温和干旱的气候变化特征

利用近30年的实际观测资料,分析贺州地区年平均气温和干旱指数的变化特征,结果表明:(1)贺州地区年平均气温有增高趋势,冬季和春季较大幅度变暖,带来"暖冬",夏季反而稍微降温,出现"凉夏",秋季稍有增温,但不明显;(2)贺州地区的年平均气温存在11 a和4a左右的两个振荡周期;(3)在上世纪80年代初,贺州地区干旱指数有一次明显的年代际变化,由负值转为正值,干旱有加重的趋势,未来几年贺州地区干旱指数仍处于增强的趋势中,这与11～13 a左右的振荡周期处于正位相有关.贺州地区4个站的干旱指数都有一个11～13a左右的振荡周期和一个2～6 a左右的振荡周期.     

长白山区泥炭沼泽磁化率特征及其环境意义

以长白山区泥炭沼泽为研究对象,沿不同海拔选择赤池、锦北、大牛沟、金川和哈尔巴岭5个代表性采样点。通过对沼泽垂直剖面的精细采样,利用210Pb和137Cs方法对5个剖面进行高精度定年,综合研究和分析泥炭沉积物质量磁化率沿深度垂直分布特征,进而揭示其环境意义。结果表明,长白山区泥炭沼泽磁化率在表层具有明显的富集规律,富集时间始于20世纪初,并在20世纪后期达到峰值,且其富集含量可达以下层位富集平均值的5～10倍;长白山区泥炭磁化率的表聚性特征反映了在盛行西风等自然因素作用下,大气降尘和城市扩张等多种人类活动对区域环境的影响,很好地指示了区域磁性颗粒物污染扩大和加剧趋势。     

东北地区资源型城市转型过程中社会—经济—环境协调演化特征

借鉴协调发展相关理论,构建综合评价资源型城市社会、经济和环境转型的指标体系,利用面板数据回归模型测算2000-2014年系统内各要素对资源型城市协调转型的作用,对东北地区资源型城市转型以来协调发展的时空格局进行分析。研究发现：① 东北地区资源型城市转型协调水平呈现波动式缓慢上升的走势,共出现四次较大幅度的波动,空间上差异性先减弱后加剧,协调程度较高的地区主要集中在辽宁省南部,失调城市分布在黑龙江省北部边缘地区,无论是协调度水平变化或是空间分布上这种“两极”分化的趋势越来越明显。② 东北地区资源型城市协调转型发展总体水平不高,从划分类型看,协调发展型城市在社会—经济—环境各方面作用力均衡较好,对社会服务设施完善等方面投入强于发展调和型城市和失调衰退型城市,钢铁型城市协调转型水平强于石油型城市和冶金型城市,森工型城市表现最弱。③ 第三产业发展、教育、技术、非国营经济、生产生活环境等因素对协调转型的促进作用显著,但历史遗留问题、产业结构升级等仍待进一步解决,同时也对实践创新、体制机制改革提出了高要求。