Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

北祁连的形成与演化历史：来自河流沉积物地球化学及其碎屑锆石U Pb年龄、Hf同位素组成的证据

通过对发源于北祁连造山带北段、中段、南段河流沉积物地球化学与碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及Hf同位素组成的系统研究,确定河流沙、泥沙质微量元素平均组成与大陆上地壳平均值基本一致。一般沙质成分由于石英的稀释作用使其微量元素含量稍低于大陆上地壳平均值,泥沙质成分的微量元素含量一般稍高于大陆上地壳均值。北祁连造山带河流碎屑沉积物As、Sb、Cu、Zn等元素的平均含量明显高于大陆上地壳的平均含量,可能指示北祁连硫化物矿床成矿具有良好的前景。河流碎屑沉积物Sm-Nd同位素组成得到的Nd亏损地幔模式年龄为1.89~1.12Ga,平均为1.68Ga;北段、中段河流沙质部分的Nd同位素亏损地幔模式年龄比相对较细的泥沙质部分的老,说明河流近源古老地壳基底组分更多;而南段的部分河流则相反,说明近源有更多的新生地壳组分。锆石U-Pb年龄结果表明,北祁连造山带最强的岩浆作用发生于新元古代—晚古生代早期(650~400Ma),此期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的31%,它们主要记录了北祁连洋壳的俯冲消减、陆-陆碰撞及碰撞后的壳内岩浆作用过程。太古宙古老基底组分在北祁连造山带存在,但所占比例极低,它们可能以碎屑组分存在于古元古代的北大河岩群等变质基底中。新太古代到古元古代(2700~1700Ma)期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的~34%,此期间是北祁连基底的主要形成阶段。古元古代末到新元古代(1700~650Ma)期间形成的锆石占全部锆石的17%,它们可能代表着古祁连洋盆的主要形成阶段。锆石Hf同位素组成确定的北祁连由亏损地幔增生物质到地壳主要发生于3.2~2.0Ga、2.0~1.0Ga这两个时间段,650Ma以后基本没有增生地壳组分的加入。不同地段河流碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄有些差别,北段的北大河中最老基底组分所占比例最高,而南段河流中的古老基底组分比例相对较低,印证了古祁连洋是从东南向西北拉开的过程,西北段在俯冲消减及碰撞过程中有较多古老地壳基底组分的参与。晚古生代晚期—三叠纪期间北祁连仍存在较弱的岩浆作用。由Nd同位素比值与Nd含量、Na_2O/K_2O比值之间的关系进一步证明北祁连河流沉积物是最古老的基底长英质组分、较老的基底镁铁质组分或其熔融产物、古祁连洋壳镁铁质组分或其熔融产物三者混合的产物。     

Geochronological and isotopic records of crustal storage and assimilation in the Wolverine Creek–Conant Creek system,Heise eruptive centre,Snake River Plain

Understanding the processes of differentiation of the Yellowstone–Snake River Plain (YSRP) rhyolites is typically impeded by the apparent lack of erupted intermediate compositions as well as the complex nature of their shallow interaction with the surrounding crust responsible for their typically low O isotopic ratios. A pair of normal-δ¹⁸O rhyolitic eruptions from the Heise eruptive centre in eastern Idaho, the Wolverine Creek Tuff and the Conant Creek Tuff, represent unique magmatic products of the Yellowstone hotspot preserving abundant vestiges of the intermediate differentiation steps leading to rhyolite generation. We address both shallow and deep processes of magma generation and storage in the two units by combining high-precision ID–TIMS U–Pb zircon geochronology, trace element, O and Hf isotopic studies of zircon, and Sr isotopic analyses of individual high-Mg# pyroxenes inherited from lower- to mid-crustal differentiation stages. The zircon geochronology confirms the derivation of both tuffs from the same rhyolitic magma reservoir erupted at 5.5941 ± 0.0097 Ma, preceded by at least 92 ± 14 ky of continuous or intermittent zircon saturation approximating the length of pre-eruptive magma accumulation in the upper crust. Some low-Mg# pyroxenes enclosing zircons predate the eruption by at least 45 ± 27 ky, illustrating the co-crystallisation of major and accessory phases in the near-liquidus rhyolitic melts of the YSRP over a significant period of time. Coeval zircon crystals are isotopically heterogeneous (two populations at εHf ~?5 and ?13), requiring the assembly of isotopically distinct melt pockets directly prior to, or during, the eruption. The primitive Mg# 60–90 pyroxenes are out of isotopic equilibrium with the host rhyolitic melt (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70889), covering a range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70705–0.70883 corresponding to ratios typical of the most radiogenic YSRP basalts to the least radiogenic YSRP rhyolites. Together with the low εHf in zircon, the Sr isotopic ratios illustrate limited assimilation dominated by radiogenic Archean crustal source materials incorporated into variably evolved YSRP melts as they progress towards rhyolitic compositions by assimilation–fractional crystallisation.     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.     

Assessing Performance of Tomo-SAR and Backscattering Coefficient for Hemi-Boreal Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation

Tomo-SAR technique has been used for hemi-boreal forest height and further forest biomass estimation through allometric equation. Backscattering coefficient especially in longer wavelength (L- or P-band) is thought as a useful parameter for hemi-boreal forest biomass retrieval. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of vertical backscattering power and backscattering coefficient for hemi-boreal forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with airborne P-band data. The test site locates in southern Sweden called Remningstorp test site, and the in-situ forest AGB ranges from 14 t/ha to 245 t/ha at stand level. Multi-baseline P-band Pol-InSAR data in repeat-path mode collected during March and May in 2007 at Remningstorp test site was used. We found that the correlation coefficient (R) between backscattering coefficient of P-band HH polarization and the in-situ forest biomass reached 0.87. The R for P-band VV backscattering power at 5 m is 0.71 and 10 m is 0.72. Backscattering coefficient in HH polarization and vertical backscattering power at 5 m and 10 m were applied to construct a model for hemi-boreal forest AGB estimation by backward step-wise regression and cross-validation approach. The results showed that the estimated forest AGB ranges from 19 to 240 t/ha, and the constructed model obtained a higher R and smaller RMSE, the value of R is 0.91, RMSE is 30.43 t/ha at Remningstorp test site.     

Practical Application of 3D Visualization Using Geotechnical Database: A Case Study Karsiyaka (Izmir) Settlement Area (Turkey)

3D geographic information system software’s (GIS) are widely used in engineering geology applications. This study was performed in the Karsiyaka settlement area for the preparation of engineering geological maps and evaluation of geological structures. Firstly, topographic maps digitized with Arcview GIS 3.2. Engineering geological maps were prepared using site works and digitized with the Rockworks 2006 programme and later stored in GIS-based computer systems. 3D modelling analysis and assessment using a geotechnical database is important to assist decision-making for land use and metro subway line planning, construction site selection, selection of water sources, etc. In this respect, the sub-surface of the study area is fully 3D visualized and useful soil class zonation maps for different depths maps are performed to be used in further studies. At last, after research at this site, the construction applications of Karsiyaka have multiplied.     

Estimation of Above Ground Biomass for Central Indian Deciduous Forests Using ALOS PALSAR L-Band Data

Reliable and accurate estimates of tropical forest above ground biomass (AGB) are important to reduce uncertainties in carbon budgeting. In the present study we estimated AGB of central Indian deciduous forests of Madhya Pradesh (M.P.) state, India, using Advanced Land Observing Satellite – Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR) L-band data of year 2010 in conjunction with field based AGB estimates using empirical models. Digital numbers of gridded 1?×?1° dual polarization (HH & HV) PALSAR mosaics for the study area were converted to normalized radar cross section (sigma naught - σ⁰). A total of 415 sampling plots (0.1 ha) data collected over the study area during 2009–10 was used in the present study. Plot-level AGB estimates using volume equations representative to the study area were computed using field inventory data. The plot-level AGB estimates were empirically modeled with the PALSAR backscatter information in HH, HV and their ratios from different forest types of the study area. The HV backscatter information showed better relation with field based AGB estimates with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.509 which was used to estimate spatial AGB of the study area. Results suggested a total AGB of 367.4 Mt for forests of M.P. state. Further, validation of the model was carried out using observed vs. predicted AGB estimates, which suggested a root mean square error (RMSE) of ±19.32 t/ha. The model reported robust and defensible relation for observed vs. predicted AGB values of the study area.     

线图形简化与移位算子的协同方法

在地图综合过程中,线的图形简化和移位算子通常是分别执行的,图形简化和移位有时都会产生新的空间冲突。本文试图把这两种算子进行协同,避免在地图综合过程中进行空间冲突的多次探测,提高地图综合数据处理的效率。本文通过把线图形简化转换为线上的点移位,并构建邻近地图目标之间的移位传播路径,在考虑空间上下文关系和地图感受规则的前提下,使移位过程能考虑到线图形简化,并尽量保持有关地图目标的空间特征。最后,以道路和其周边的建筑物群为例,验证了该算法的有效性和可行性。     

无人机影像匹配中尺度不变特征应用改进

针对尺度不变特征变换算法用于无人机影像匹配中存在匹配效率低下,误匹配较多等问题,该文提出一种特征点提取优化算法,并改进了特征点匹配策略。通过将原始影像划分格网,依据每个格网影像信息熵的大小来合理分配各格网中特征点数量,实现了基于纹理信息丰富程度的特征点均匀分布;基于Harris兴趣值进行筛选,保留了适合于摄影测量的特征点;采用一种多层次自适应的匹配策略,在尽可能保留正确匹配的同时提高了匹配正确率。基于一对由小型无人机拍摄影像的实验结果表明,所提方法在大量减少SIFT特征点的同时,保证较高的正确率,增加了匹配点的精度,且提高了算法效率。