马尔科夫链优化Richards曲线的沉降预测模型

针对建筑物沉降具有非线性及随机性的特点,建立了基于马尔科夫链修正的Richards曲线预测模型,以提高模型的预测精度。首先利用Matlab平台的fminsearch函数,以拟合值与实测值误差平方和最小为原则,然后求得Richards模型的最优参数解,最后利用马尔科夫思想修正拟合残差,进行沉降预测。以安阳市某高层建筑实际数据为研究对象,通过实例比较分析模型的预测精度。结果表明利用fminsearch进行Richards参数估计是有效的,经马尔科夫链优化后的Richards模型预测值平均绝对百分误差及均方根误差都比单模型预测小,预测精度有了一定的提高,能更好地反映数据序列随时间发展变化的总体趋势,适合于建筑物沉降预测。     

Effects of reinforcement ratio on seismic performance of hypothetical stations determined by full-scale central column tests

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - The reinforcement ratio of central column member has remarkable effect on the seismic behaviour of double-box stations. To investigate the effects of...     

ERA-Interim和CMFD气象驱动数据在新疆额尔齐斯河流域的适用性评价

气象驱动数据质量是影响流域水文过程模拟精度的一个重要因素。基于新疆额尔齐斯河流域及周边区域8个气象站记录的数据,对ERA-Interim再分析资料和中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集（CMFD）在流域的适用性进行了评价,并对比了ERA-Interim和CMFD气象要素年均值在流域的空间分布。结果表明：ERA-Interim和CMFD记录气温、相对湿度、向下短波辐射和向下长波辐射数据与观测数据具有较高的一致性,但降水和风速数据与观测数据的一致性比较差。小时尺度上ERA-Interim记录的气温、相对湿度、降水量、向下短波辐射准确度略高于CMFD数据,而日尺度上CMFD记录的所有气象要素的准确度均高于ERA-Interim数据,结合Noah-MP模型的模拟结果,认为CMFD数据在新疆额尔齐斯河流域的适用性整体优于ERA-Interim数据。从两种驱动数据获取的流域气象要素空间分布来看,ERA-Interim和CMFD获取的年平均气温、风速、相对湿度、降水量、向下长波辐射在流域空间具有高度一致性,但向下短波辐射空间分布差别较大。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘奥陶纪沉积充填记录的关键时限及其构造意义

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘上、下古生界呈现明显的角度不整合,标志着该区卷入了加里东造山带变形。本文以盆地内奥陶纪沉积充填记录为线索,利用地层序列中沉积凝灰岩的锫石U-Pb同位素测年,结合秦岭造山带岩体年代学研究成果,探讨了秦岭加里东期构造事件的发生与发展过程。研究表明:1)奥陶系沉积时期,沉积序列经历了海侵至海退的完整旋回,中奥陶世马五期海退序列开始,晚奥陶世背锅山期海水自鄂尔多斯盆地西南缘完全退出;2)晚奥陶世平凉期至背锅山期,地层序列中凝灰岩、滑塌构造、滑塌角砾岩普遍发育,滑塌构造和滑塌角砾岩的直接触发因素是构造活动引发的地震,构造活动性明显加强;3)中奥陶世马五期海退序列的开始,孕育着秦岭洋壳板块开始向北俯冲,时限大约为475~463 Ma;4)晚奥陶世平凉期,沉积序列中重力流、滑塌构造和凝灰岩普遍发育,孕育着秦岭洋向北的俯冲碰撞进入了高峰阶段,其时限大约为454~450 Ma。     

威德尔海的重磁场特征及其构造意义

威德尔海是南极洲最大的边缘海。通过搜集威德尔海的重磁资料、历史文献以及总结前人的相关研究成果,介绍了威德尔海的重磁场基本特征以及指示的构造意义。威德尔海最显著的重力特征是在威德尔海的中北部分布着以鲱骨式结构展布的一系列NW-SE向重力异常,其上可见一系列弧形、上凹的以E-W为主要方向的磁力异常。沿南极半岛陆架边缘的重力高一直可延伸到南侧海域,高值区与陆架平行,但是在磁异常上反映不明显。威德尔海原始海盆的形成约在150 Ma,并伴随南北向张裂,随后在140 Ma发生东西向扩张,到约120 Ma异常形成现代南极洲、非洲和南美洲板块的分布格局,鲱骨式结构异常脊也形成于该时期。     

TanDEM-X双站SAR干涉测量及研究进展

较全面、系统地介绍了Tan DEM-X/Terra SAR-X双站SAR科学计划,重点涉及其科学目标、Tan DEM-X卫星参数、轨道结构以及干涉数据获取模式等相关内容,并讨论了双站SAR成像、极化In SAR和数字波束成形等干涉测量新技术及其研究进展。这些双站SAR新技术的实现将大大地推动SAR干涉测量在全球地形测绘、冰川学、海洋学及地质学等领域中的应用。     

A STUDY ON REGIONAL DIFFERENCE OF CHINA＇S PAID URBAN LANDUSE SYSTEM AND GRADING

董黎明，李向明，冯长春ＡＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＲＥＧＩＯＮＡＬＤＩＦＦＥＲＥＮＣＥＯＦＣＨＩＮＡ＇ＳＰＡＩＤＵＲＢＡＮＬＡＮＤＵＳＥＳＹＳＴＥＭＡＮＤＧＲＡＤＩＮＧ￥ＤｏｎｇＬｉｍｉｎｇ；ＬｉＸｉａｎｇｍｉｎｇ；ＦｅｎｇＣｈａｎｇｃｈｕｎ（ＰｅｋｉｎｇＵｎｉ...     

Geminga脉冲星的COS-B和HEAO-B卫星资料分析

本文利用COS-B和HEAO-B卫星资料对Geminga脉冲星进行了守时性分析和谱分析,结果进一步证实了Geminga脉冲星是一颗具有强γ辐射,弱X辐射的γ射线脉冲星.     

致密星的X射线辐射时延现象

能谱仅反映了高能天体辐射的部分性质，而高能X射线辐射的时变可以反映致密天体的动态性质。因此，在构造高能辐射的理论模型时，既要考虑X辐射的能谱性质，也要考虑其时变性质。特别对高能天体X辐射的快速光变，一般认为其发生在致密天体附近，致密天体快速光变的研究可以揭示出致密天体附近的物理性质，因此，时变可以对X辐射模型给以很强的限制。X射线源不同能量光子到达观测者的时间差称为X射线辐射的时延。介绍了高能X辐射时变中的时延分析方法及其最新发展，综述了致密双星系统中黑洞侯选林和中子星的时延现象，并简单介绍了为解释这些现象所发展的模型，以及时延对模型的限制。     

Evaluation of oxygen isotopes in carbonate as an indicator of lake evolution in arid areas: The modern Qinghai Lake, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The oxygen isotopic composition of carbonate in lakes has been used as a useful indicator in Palaeolimnological research, and has made some important contributions to our understanding of lacustrine systems. For modern lakes in arid or cold areas, however, there are few data available to test the effect of lake salinity and temperature on the oxygen isotopic composition of various carbonate sources such as ostracod, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate (< 60 μm). Here we examined the oxygen isotopic composition of ostracods, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonates, as well as that of coexisting water from Lake Qinghai and the smaller surrounding lakes and ponds on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Our investigation highlights three key effects. First, the oxygen isotopic composition of ostracods, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate in the lakes and ponds shows a clear response to lake water δ¹⁸O values, and these vary with water salinity. The relationship between lake water δ¹⁸O and salinity is not only dominated by the evaporation/freshwater input ratios, but is also controlled by the distance to the mouth of the major rivers supplying to the lake. Second, the ostracod, bulk carbonate, and fine-grained carbonate show similar isotopic change trends in the study area, and oxygen isotopic differences between ostracods and authigenic carbonate may be explained by the different water temperatures and very small ‘vital offsets’ of ostracods. Finally, the effect of water depth on temperature leads to increasing δ¹⁸O values in carbonates as water depth increases, both in benthic ostracods living on the lake bottom, as well as in bulk carbonate precipitated at the water surface.For arid, high-altitude Lake Qinghai, our results suggest that variations in the δ¹⁸O values of carbonate in Lake Qinghai are mainly controlled by the oxygen-isotope ratio of the lake water changing with water salinity. As a secondary effect, increasing water depth leads to cooler bottom and surface water, which may result in more positive δ¹⁸O values of ostracod and bulk carbonate.