The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang （1989）. By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height, we introduced a new parameter named EE. We found that the cases with specific EE and magnitude do not exceed a limit. Based on the discussion of its physics, we called EE the equivalent energy. We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes. The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China. This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.     

太湖和大浦河口风成流、风涌水的数值模拟及其单站验证

介绍了太湖风成流和风涌水的数值摸拟工作。使用两种不同水平分辨率的数值模式,利用中日合作研究组在大浦河口实测的水位、湖流和风的资料对模拟结果进行了验证。结果指出,模式对风涌水及流向有较好的预报能力,流速的预报尚待进一步改进。     

中国湖泊学研究进展

本文从六个方面概述了中国湖泊资源利用与湖泊学研究进展:1.湖泊考察与综合调查;2.物理湖泊学研究;3.湖泊沉积与古湖泊学研究;4.水生生物与生态学研究;5.湖泊水化学与环境保护研究;6.湖泊资源开发利用研究.     

以颗粒物理原理认识汶川M_W 7.9地震发生前临震预滑和震颤现象

发生在孕震区周边地块上的临震预滑和震颤现象,对破坏性地震预测有一定前兆意义,是值得地震学界关注的问题。选取2008年5月12日汶川M_W 7.9地震发生前,临夏和湟源地震台分量应变仪记录与临夏、恩施和西安地震台数字地震仪记录以及临夏和周至地震台深井水位仪记录,分析发现,在临震前数天至数小时,上述各地震台不同学科观测仪器均记录到一些"跃变"和"震颤"震相。文中试图以颗粒物理原理,来认识不同距离、不同台站、不同学科的观测仪器在临震前相近时间段内记录的低频和高频震相,可能是不同地块在临震前发生预滑错动后激发的预滑震相Xp和地下气体在裂隙内流动激发的震颤震相Tp。观测结果表明:2008年5月8日03时至主震发生,各地震台所处地块在相近时段内逐次发生次数不等的预滑错动,其中1—2次较大错动可在噪声背景中被识别;各地震台预滑错动方向指向或背向主震震中。据此认为:汶川M_W7.9地震前,上述各地震台所处地块在不同大小、不同方向的力链驱动下,发生指向或背向主震震中的临震预滑现象。     

Compositional characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanes of the glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and their environmental and climatic significances

We report on the concentration and compositional features of n-alkanes of natural and anthropogenic origins in the snow samples collected from the Qiyi glacier in the Qilian Mountains, the Yuzhufeng glacier in eastern Kunlun Mountains, the Xiaodongkemadi glacier in the Tanggula Mountains, and the Gurenhekou glacier in the Nyainqêntanglha Range. The results indicate a decrease in the total n-alkane concentration (T-HCs) from the northeast to the south over the Tibetan Plateau. The T-HCs in these studied areas were close to those in the Belukha and Sofiyskiy glacier, Russian Alati Mountains and the Dasuopu glacier in the Himalaya but were much higher than those in the Greenland ice sheet, suggesting that the mountain glaciers in the Asian continent may receive a higher loading of n-alkanes than the Greenland ice core. Moreover, the compositional characteristics of n-alkanes indicated that the n-alkanes in the studied areas were probably originated from the plant waxes as well as the fossil-fuel combustion exhaust, whereas the contribution from the lower organisms was small. In addition, the plant wax (C_n(wax)) and anthropogenic (non-C_n(wax)) contributions revealed that fast industrialization may have significant effects on the organic pollutant composition in glacier over the Tibetan Plateau and its circumference environment. Particularly, except for the Yuzhufeng glacier, the ΣnC₂₁ ⁻/ΣnC₂₂ ⁺ and (nC₁₅+nC₁₇+nC₁₉)/(nC₂₇+nC₂₉+nC₃₁) ratio decreased from the Qiyi glacier to the Gurenhekou glacier over the Tibetan Plateau, while the carbon preference index (CPI) values increased. These results indicate a decrease in terrigenous input while an increase in marine input from the northeast to the south over the Tibetan Plateau. These two ratios can be used as the climatic and environmental change indicators.     

双等腰三角形凸起地形在SH波入射时的地表位移函数

利用"分区、辅助函数"思想,将求解的区域分为三部分,区域Ⅰ为一个带有半圆形弧线的等腰三角形区域,区域Ⅱ也为一个带有半圆形弧线的等腰三角形区域,区域Ⅲ为两个带有半圆形凹陷的弹性半空间,并利用波函数展开法分别在区域Ⅰ、Ⅱ和区域Ⅲ中构造满足等腰三角形在其斜面上应力自由和在弹性半空间中满足水平面上应力自由的驻波函数,以此为基础,通过区域Ⅰ、Ⅱ和区域Ⅲ的"公共边界"位移应力连续条件,建立对该问题进行求解的无穷代数方程组,并采用截断有限项的方法对其进行求解。     

Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R²). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.     

以颗粒物理原理认识汶川MW 7.9地震发生前临震预滑和震颤现象

发生在孕震区周边地块上的临震预滑和震颤现象,对破坏性地震预测有一定前兆意义,是值得地震学界关注的问题。选取2008年5月12日汶川M_W 7.9地震发生前,临夏和湟源地震台分量应变仪记录与临夏、恩施和西安地震台数字地震仪记录以及临夏和周至地震台深井水位仪记录,分析发现,在临震前数天至数小时,上述各地震台不同学科观测仪器均记录到一些"跃变"和"震颤"震相。文中试图以颗粒物理原理,来认识不同距离、不同台站、不同学科的观测仪器在临震前相近时间段内记录的低频和高频震相,可能是不同地块在临震前发生预滑错动后激发的预滑震相Xp和地下气体在裂隙内流动激发的震颤震相Tp。观测结果表明：2008年5月8日03时至主震发生,各地震台所处地块在相近时段内逐次发生次数不等的预滑错动,其中1-2次较大错动可在噪声背景中被识别;各地震台预滑错动方向指向或背向主震震中。据此认为：汶川M_W 7.9地震前,上述各地震台所处地块在不同大小、不同方向的力链驱动下,发生指向或背向主震震中的临震预滑现象。     

证据权模型与含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法相结合的资源潜力评价新方法

本文提出了计算含矿单元数概率分布函数的新方法,在此基础上,把证据权模型矿产资源评价方法得到的含矿网格单元作为蒙特卡洛模型中的统计对象,得到了与证据权模型找矿法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法矿产资源潜力评价方法。该方法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需估计矿床个数分布,减少了工作步骤和评价误差,可提高工作效率和自动化。对实际案例的应用表明该方法是可行的。     

西南极乔治王岛新生代古生物特征及古环境探讨

西南极乔治王岛发育有一套高钾低铝的拉斑玄武岩,夹火山碎屑岩,属于岛弧火山岩系列。该岛还保存了南极最长的冰川沉积记录,是研究南极冰盖演化历史的重要证据。乔治王岛出露的新生代陆相地层中含有丰富的植物叶、孢粉、茎干、无脊椎动物化石及鸟类足印的痕迹化石等,从始新世到早中新世,化石逐渐减少,表明植物多样性呈明显下降趋势,幸存的稀疏植被被严格限制在冰川周缘的苔原物种上。冰海相地层与古生物研究表明,晚渐新世海相地层主要对应高能环境,早中新世海相地层对应低能环境。对乔治王岛新生代古生物特征及古环境的探讨,不仅理解了古生物及多样性的变化趋势,也为重建南极古环境提供证据。