Forecasting errors: The importance of the decision-making context

This article demonstrates the importance of context on forecast errors. It de J.scribes the development of an unrealistic transportation planning forecast for Denver, Colorado, noting its influence on air quality planning for Denver. The importance of two contextual features, procedural rationality and conflict of interest, to the introduction of error is discussed. The case described implies that different decision-making contexts define different rules of rationality, and substantive rationality may not fit the rules. The type of context and not necessarily a code of ethics will determine this.     

Evolutionary events of Cainozoic Ostracoda of western Philippine Sea and paleoceanographical implications

The Oligocene ostracod fauna of IISDP Site 292 of the western Philippine Sea was marked by high density, diversity and origination, probably reflecting a favorable period for deep-sea Ostraroda; while the sharp decrease in dtmsity and diversity as well as the repeatedly occurring vxtinctions in thc. Neogene may indicate the deterioration in bottom-water environmcnts at that tlme. Five rriajor faunal changes have been recognized in terms of density, diversity and evolutionary artivity (origination and extinction), occurring in the earliest Oligocene (PI8), mid-Oligocene (P21), earliest Miocene (N4), early Middle Miocene (N8) and late Pliocene (N21). respectively. These changes in ostracod faunas are suggested to represent short-term events related to global paleoceanographical changes and to record the Cainozoic cooling history of the West Pacific Ocean and Philippine Sea deep-water. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49676287).     

Organohalogen contaminants and trace metals in North-East Atlantic porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus)

The North-East Atlantic porbeagle (Lamna nasus) population has declined dramatically over the last few decades and is currently classified as ‘Critically Endangered’. As long-lived, apex predators, they may be vulnerable to bioaccumulation of contaminants. In this study organohalogen compounds and trace elements were analysed in 12 specimens caught as incidental bycatch in commercial gillnet fisheries in the Celtic Sea in 2011. Levels of organohalogen contaminants were low or undetectable (summed CB and BDE concentrations 0.04–0.85 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). A notably high Cd concentration (7.2 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight) was observed in one mature male, whereas the range observed in the other samples was much lower (0.04–0.26 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). Hg and Pb concentrations were detected only in single animals, at 0.34 and 0.08 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight, respectively. These contaminant levels were low in comparison to other published studies for shark species.     

Evaluating Tidal Wetland Restoration Performance Using National Estuarine Research Reserve System Reference Sites and the Restoration Performance Index (RPI)

Evaluations of tidal wetland restoration efforts suffer from a lack of appropriate reference sites and standardized methods among projects. To help address these issues, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) and the NOAA Restoration Center engaged in a partnership to monitor ecological responses and evaluate 17 tidal wetland restoration projects associated with five reserves. The goals of this study were to (1) determine the level of restoration achieved at each project using the restoration performance index (RPI), which compares change in parameters over time between reference and restoration sites, (2) compare hydrologic and excavation restoration projects using the RPI, (3) identify key indicator parameters for assessing restoration effectiveness, and (4) evaluate the value of the NERRS as reference sites for local restoration projects. We found that the RPI, modified for this study, was an effective tool for evaluating relative differences in restoration performance; most projects achieved an intermediate level of restoration from 2008 to 2010, and two sites became very similar to their paired reference sites, indicating that the restoration efforts were highly effective. There were no differences in RPI scores between hydrologic and excavation restoration project types. Two abiotic parameters (marsh platform elevation and groundwater level) were significantly correlated with vegetation community structure and thus can potentially influence restoration performance. Our results highlight the value of the NERRS as reference sites for assessing tidal wetland restoration projects and provide improved guidance for scientists and restoration practitioners by highlighting the RPI as a trajectory analysis tool and identifying key monitoring parameters.     

The politics of greening unceded lands in the settler city

ABSTRACT

Urban greening is a buzz term in urban policy and research settings in Australia and elsewhere. In a context of settler colonial urbanism, like Australia, a first fact becomes clear: urban greening is always being practiced on unceded Indigenous lands. Recognising this requires some honest reckoning with how this latest urban policy response perpetuates dispossessory settler-colonial structures. In this paper, we listen to the place-based ontologies of the peoples and lands from where we write to inform understanding the city as an always already Indigenous place – a sovereign Aboriginal City. In so doing, the paper tries to practice a way of creating more truthful and response-able urban knowledge practices. We analyse three distinct areas of scholarly research that are present in the contemporary literature: urban greening and green infrastructure; urban political ecology; and more-than-human cities. When placed in relationship of learning with the sovereign Aboriginal City, our analysis finds that these scholarly domains of urban greening work to re-organise colonial power relations. The paper considers what work the practice and scholarship of ‘urban greening’ might need to do in order to become response-able and learn to learn with Indigenous sovereignties and ontologies.     

Origin of a partially differentiated Titan

Accretional temperature profiles for Saturn’s large moon Titan are used to determine the conditions needed for accretion to avoid global melting as a function of the timing, duration, and nebular conditions of Titan’s accretion. We find that Titan can accrete undifferentiated in a “gas-starved” disk even with modest quantities of ammonia mixed in with its ices. Simulations of impact-induced core formation are used to show that Titan can remain only partially differentiated after an outer Solar System late heavy bombardment capable of melting its outer layers, permitting some of its rock to consolidate into a core.     

Shapes of chondrules determined from the petrofabric of the CR2 chondrite NWA 801

The approximately spherical shapes of chondrules has long been attributed to surface tension acting on ~1 mm melt droplets that formed and cooled in the microgravity field of the solar nebula. However, chondrule shapes commonly depart significantly from spherical. In this study, 109 chondrules in a sample of CR2 chondrite NWA 801 were imaged by X-ray computed tomography and best-fitted to ellipsoids. The analysis confirms that many chondrules are indeed not spherical, and also that the chondrules’ collective shape fabric records a definite 13% compaction in the host meteorite. Dehydration of phyllosilicates within chondrules may account for that strain. However, retro-deforming all chondrules shows that a large majority were already far from spherical prior to accretion. Possible models for these initial shapes include prior deformation of individual chondrules in earlier hosts, and, as suggested by previous authors, rotation of chondrules as they were solidifying, and/or “streaming” of molten chondrules by their differential velocities with their gaseous hosts after melting. More in situ 3-D work such as this study on a variety of unequilibrated chondrites, combined with detailed structural petrography, should help further constrain these models and refine our understanding of chondrite formation.     

Occurrence of noble metals in aluminum- and chromium- rich objects in ordinary chondrites and of baddeleyite (ZrO2) in a chromite inclusion

Abstract— Platinum group elements (PGE) enrichments are found in Fe-Ni blebs (<1 μm) in Al- and Cr-rich objects in the ordinary chondrites Ste. Marguerite, Forest Vale, Montferré. In Ste. Marguerite, high ZrO₂ concentrations (baddeleyite) are also present in a chromite inclusion. Iridium enrichment in this material compared to its metal content is confirmed by INAA. The widespread occurrence of PGE in Al- and Cr-rich objects, mostly present in H-group chondrites of nearly equilibrated types, must be taken into account to understand their conditions of formation.