Interpretation of probability of landsliding triggered by rainfall

This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management.     

A model for assessing iceberg hazard

Natural Hazards - With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to...     

Pressure solution at grain-to-grain contacts

Whereas much petrographic evidence for pressure solution, in sedimentary rocks has been accumulated since Sorby's work, its thermodynamic justification has never been clearly established, and has been challenged by some authors. Difficulties disappear when it is recognized that in the most general case migration of chemical components proceeds down chemical-potential gradients rather than down concentration gradients. Along a grain contact a chemical-potential gradient is produced by variations in contact pressure and by local variations in Helmholtz energy of the solid. For example, in a sand made up of even-sized spherical grains buried 500 m, the ratio of the diameter (D) of the grains to that of a spherical elastic contact circle (a) is D/a ～- 26. The chemical potential at the center of such an elastic contact is ～- 14kcal mol^?1 higher than in surrounding pore water saturated with respect to quartz. For comparison, at a temperature of 30°C, saturation with respect to amorphous silica rather than quartz raises the chemical potential by only 1.6 kcal mol^?1. If the diameter of the contact circle has enlarged to e.g. a = D/5, the chemical potential at its center is still 0.5 kcal mol ^?1 greater than that of free quartz under hydrostatic pressure. The corresponding potential gradients are the driving force of pressure solution. The concept of pressure solution thus does not contradict any thermodynamic principle; in particular, it does not require that the chemical component of the solid have a smaller partial volume in solution than in the solid state. Petrographic and experimental evidence can therefore be accepted without reservation.     

Evaluation of a numerical model of the British–Irish ice sheet using relative sea‐level data: implications for the interpretation of trimline observations

The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the British Isles is complex due to the interplay between local and non‐local signals. A number of recent studies have modelled the GIA response of the British Isles using relative sea‐level data. This study extends these previous analyses by using output from a numerical glaciological model as input to a GIA model. This is a necessary step towards more realistic GIA models, and although there have been similar studies for the major late Pleistocene ice sheets, this is the first study to do so for the British Isles. We test three reconstructions, classed as ‘minimal’, ‘median’ and ‘maximal’ in terms of their volume at maximum extent, and find it is possible to obtain good data–model fits. The minimal reconstruction is clearly preferred by the sea‐level data. The ice reconstructions tested were not constrained by geomorphological information of past ice extent (lateral and vertical). As a consequence, the reconstructions extend further than much of this information suggests, particularly in terms of ice thickness. It is notable, however, that the reconstructions produce good fits to many sea‐level data from central, mountainous regions (e.g. Scottish highlands), which lends support to the suggestion that trimlines, often used as an constraint on the palaeo ice surface location, are in fact features formed at the transition from warm‐ to cold‐based ice and so mark a minimum constraint on the ice surface altitude. Based on data–model misfits, suggestions are made for improving the ice model reconstructions. However, in many locations, the cause of the misfit could be due to non‐local, predominantly Fennoscandian ice and so interpretation is not straightforward. As a result, we suggest that future analyses of this type consider models and observations for both Fennoscandia and the British Isles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The dissolution kinetics of biogenic calcium carbonates in seawater

Dissolution rate as a function of degree of undersaturation was measured on shells of individual species of coccoliths and foraminifera, various size fractions of sediment from the Ontong-Java Plateau and the Rio Grande Rise, a collection of large pteropods, and on synthetic calcite and aragonite powder.Results of the study indicate that all biogenic and synthetic calcium carbonate follows the rate law $\text{R\% = k\%(1 ? Ω)}{}^{\mathrm{n}}$ where $\text{Ω  [Ca}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{][CO}{}_3{}^{\mathrm{2?}}\text{]/K'}{}_{\mathrm{sp}}$ and K'_sp is the apparent solubility product of calcite or aragonitic seawater. In the case of all calcite samples, n_c = 4.5, while for aragonitic samples n_a = 4.2. The ‘rate constant’, k%, varies widely between samples and in many cases is inversely correlated with grain size. However, the individual species of coccoliths, E. huxleyi and C. neohelis, which were cultured in the laboratory appear not to follow this rule, with dissolution rates an order to magnitude lower than expected.     

Alteration paragenesis and mineral chemistry of the Tjårrojåkka apatite–iron and Cu (-Au) occurrences, Kiruna area, northern Sweden

The northern Norrbotten area in northern Sweden, is an important mining district and hosts several deposits of Fe-oxide Cu-Au-type. One of the best examples of spatially, and possibly genetically, related apatite–iron and copper–gold deposits in the region is at Tjårrojåkka, 50 km WSW of Kiruna. The deposits are hosted by strongly sheared and metamorphosed intermediate volcanic rocks and dolerites and show a structural control. The Tjårrojåkka iron deposit is a typical apatite–iron ore of Kiruna-type and the Tjårrojåkka copper occurrence shows the same characteristics as most other epigenetic deposits in Norrbotten. The host rock has been affected by strong albite and K-feldspar alteration related to mineralisation, resulting in an enrichment of Na, K, and Ba. Fe and V were depleted in the altered zones and added in mineralised samples. REE were enriched in the system, with the greatest addition related to mineralisation. Y was also mobile associated with albite alteration and copper mineralisation. The Tjårrojåkka iron and copper deposits show comparable hydrothermal alteration minerals and paragenesis, which might be a product of common host rock and similarities in ore fluid composition, or overprinting by successive alteration stages. Mineralogy and mineral chemistry of the alteration minerals (apatite, scapolite, feldspars, amphiboles, and biotite) indicate a higher salinity and Ba/K ratio in the fluid related to the alterations in the apatite–iron occurrence than in the copper deposit, where the minerals are enriched in F and S. The presence of hematite, barite, and in SO₄ in scapolite suggests more oxidising-rich conditions during the emplacement of the Tjårrojåkka-Cu deposit. From existing data it might be suggested that one evolving system created the two occurrences, with the copper mineralisation representing a slightly later product.     

Phytoplankton and particulate matter in Carlingford Lough, Ireland: An assessment of food availability and the impact of bivalve culture

In an attempt to assess the impact of bivalve culture in Carlingford Lough, Ireland, the seasonal cycles of nutrients, particulate matter, chlorophylla, and phytoplankton in the lough was investigated in 1992. Chlorophyll levels showed an increase in April, corresponding to the annual spring bloom, and levels remained relatively high (2–12 mg m^?3) throughout the summer before dropping to a winter minimum by December. Throughout the summer the phytoplankton community was dominated by diatoms, with microflagellates becoming an increasingly larger fraction of the biomass in autumn and winter. Dinoflagellates were only present on occasion in low numbers during the summer months. Seasonal variations in nitrate, phosphate, and silicate concentrations at all stations showed characteristic winter maxima and summer minima. Nitrate concentrations had reached a minimum undetectable level by June, at a time when the main freshwater input from the Clanrye River had dropped to <0.3 m³ s^?1. Particulate organic carbon (POC) composed approximately 5% of the suspended matter, with highest values in winter due to resuspension. Levels of biologically available POC, as determined by a modified BOD technique, were greatest in summer, and an inverse relationship was observed between total POC and its fraction that was biologically available. Most of the labile fraction was considered to be phytoplankton, and remineralization during the summer is suggested as a mechanism for maintaining high productivity during the summer months. Although the phytoplankton biology was uncoupled with that outside the lough, it is concluded that there is scope for expansion of the local bivalve mariculture industry without altering the ecosystem of the lough. The upper limit on such expansion would be set by practical considerations such as availability of space and site suitability due to water quality.