DLT程序设计与应用

在近景摄影测量直接线性变换原理的基础上，加入附加条件建立附加有平行条件的直接线性变换函数模型，探讨了在解算过程中用数据探测法剔除粗差，用验后补偿的方法补偿系统误差的实现。鉴于非量测像机在近景摄影洲量中应用导致直接线性变换解法的重要性和实用性及数据量大、解算过程过于复杂的情况。用VC 编制了直接线性变换的解算程序，对其关键的方法和用法进行了说明。     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

应用极化合成孔径雷达检测海上溢油研究进展

海上溢油给海洋生态环境带来严重的影响,快速准确地探测溢油对于防灾减灾具有重要的意义。利用卫星遥感探测溢油已成为目前主要的检测手段,大多采用合成孔径雷达(SAR)数据,运用图像处理的方法,开展了多种溢油提取算法的研究,取得了较好的结果,但由于海洋的类溢油现象存在,造成提取信息的精度达不到要求。近年来,国内外运用极化SAR数据开展溢油信息提取研究,从极化分解与相位差等角度对溢油特性分析,能有效地区分一些类溢油现象,得到了较理想的结果。分析了应用SAR数据开展溢油信息提取的研究状况,总结了溢油极化SAR探测的研究,指出了目前研究中存在的不足,并提出了今后溢油极化SAR遥感监测的方向。     

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。     

柴达木盆地东台吉乃尔盐湖盐类沉积特征及成盐年代的初步研究

东台吉乃尔盐湖经过长期的成盐演化和成矿过程 ,最终形成了以氯化钠化学沉积为主的蒸发盐 ,晶间卤水富含B、Li等多种元素卤水矿床 ,根据 1998年对该湖干盐滩中部所打的CK1孔钻孔剖面( 12m)及测试的几个14 C年龄 ,初步证实该盐湖上部盐层是在约 10 0 0 0aBP形成 ,未经碳酸盐和硫酸盐成盐阶段 ,盐湖形成初期即进入氯化物成盐阶段。     

Origin and Evolution of Aquitard Porewater in the Western Coastal Plain of Bohai Bay,China

High‐salinity paleowater from low‐permeability aquitards in coastal areas can be a major threat to groundwater resources; however, such water has rarely been studied. The chemical and isotopic compositions of porewater extracted from a 200‐m‐thick Quaternary sedimentary sequence in the western coastal plain of Bohai Bay, China, were analyzed to investigate the salinity origin and chemical evolution of porewater in aquitards. Porewater samples derived at depths shallower than 32 m are characterized by Cl‐Na type saline water (total dissolved solids [TDS], 10.9–84.3 g/L), whereas those at depths greater than 32 m comprise Cl·SO₄‐Na type brackish water (TDS, 2.2–6.3 g/L). Saline porewater is interpreted as evaporated seawater prior to halite saturation, as evidenced by Cl‐Br relationships. Although substantial dilution of saline porewater with meteoric water is supported by a wider Cl^? range and δ²H‐δ¹⁸O covariance, the original marine waters were not completely flushed out. The deeper brackish porewater is determined to be a mixture of fresher porewater and brine groundwater and had a component of old brine of less than 10%, as indicated by a mixing model defined using δ²H and Cl^? tracers. Porewater δ²H‐δ¹⁸O relationships and negative deuterium excess ranging from ?25.9‰ to ?2.9‰ indicate the existence of an arid climate since Late Pleistocene in Tianjin Plain. The aquitard porewaters were chemically modified through water‐rock interactions due to the long residence time.     

Non-symmetrical levee breaching processes in a channel bend due to overtopping

A series of experiments were done to reveal the overtopping breaching process of non-cohesive and cohesive levees in a U-bend flume. The flood hydrograph and breaching geometry were measured and analyzed in detail. The results show that the levee breaching processes can be briefly divided into four stages: slope erosion, longitudinal headward gully-cutting, lateral erosion, and relative stabilization. For non-cohesive levees, non-symmetrical lateral development of the breach occurs throughout the four stages, and the final non-symmetrical coefficient is approximately 2.2–2.6. Larger flow discharge or higher water level can accelerate the breaching process, while coarser sands tend to accelerate the process initially but depress the process at the end. The fluvial erosion rate of a non-cohesive breach shows a power-function relation with the excess wall shear stress. For cohesive levees, a plateau forms in the breach partially blocking the flow in the first two stages. The breach flow is approximately perpendicular to the levee body, and, thus, the erosion rates of the two breach sides are almost the same. Non-symmetrical lateral development mainly occurs in the third stage when the deep gully forms. The final non-symmetrical coefficient is approximately 2.7–3.3. It is expected that these findings can provide a valuable experimental dataset and a theoretical basis for breach closure and flood alleviation.     

开敞式潮滩-潮沟系统发育演变动力机制——Ⅲ.海平面上升影响

为研究海平面上升对潮滩-潮沟系统的影响,以江苏中部粉砂淤泥质海岸为原型,建立变态物理模型,模拟研究在不同海平面潮汐过程作用下的潮沟发育和演变过程,分析了潮滩淹没历时、排水密度、潮沟断面形态等特征参数变化规律。研究表明:潮沟在发育初期伸长速率高于拓宽速率,最终趋于动态平衡;海平面上升后,潮滩淹没历时增加,露滩时间缩短,归槽水对潮沟底床的塑造作用减弱;平均归槽水流长度和Horton排水长度均随海平面上升呈现出减小趋势,潮沟的排水能力增强;潮沟断面宽深比服从对数正态分布,随着海平面上升,潮沟断面面积和宽深比均呈现出增大趋势,宽深比分布范围变广。     

卡尔曼滤波器在卫星遥感影像大地校正中的应用

在卫星遥感图像的预处理中,通过系统校正可以基本上消除影像内部的变形误差。然而,整幅影像的大地定位误差仍然是很大的,甚至几百米至1公里的数量级。本文介绍利用少量的地面控制点,采用递归算法而不是批处理算法,大大地提高大地定位精度。在单幅影像处理中,可以重新对卫星的轨道参数与姿态参数进行估值,从而提高影像的大地定位精度。在一条轨道上连续的多幅影像中,可以预报下一幅影像的大地位置,从而对那些不具有地面控制点的影像的大地校正中,实现外推计算。文中介绍并推导了卡尔曼滤波器方程中的转移矩阵和测量矩阵的系数,并推荐用数值回归的办法求得其数值解。文中最后介绍模拟试验及算法计算结果,并讨论其优缺点。     

大庆油田勘探50年：陆相生油理论的伟大实践

文章系统分析了陆相生油理论和大庆油田的勘探实践,总结了大庆油田的勘探历程并划分为三大阶段：构造油藏勘探阶段,岩性油藏勘探的探索阶段,岩性油藏勘探大发展阶段。详细阐述了“十五”以来,大庆油田依靠创新理论与技术,丰富完善了大型陆相坳陷盆地岩性油藏勘探理论与配套技术,深层火山岩气藏勘探理论与配套技术,复杂断陷盆地油气勘探理论与配套技术,从而带来了松辽盆地北部中一浅层、深层和海拉尔盆地油气勘探的大发展,大庆油田再次进入油气储量增长高峰期。在详细分析大庆探区的勘探实际和资源潜力的基础上,提出了“百年油田”勘探的工作思路,通过扎实推进科学勘探,努力为油田可持续发展提供有力资源保障的勘探战略。