An Economical Approach to Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) is one of the most promising methods to provide optimal analysis for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Five national NWP centers in the world have successfully applied 4DVar methods in their global NWPs, thanks to the increment method and adjoint technique. However, the application of 4DVar is still limited by the computer resources available at many NWP centers and research institutes. It is essential, therefore, to further reduce the computational cost of 4DVar. Here, an economical approach to implement 4DVar is proposed, using the technique of dimension-reduced projection (DRP), which is called ``DRP-4DVar." The proposed approach is based on dimension reduction using an ensemble of historical samples to define a subspace. It directly obtains an optimal solution in the reduced space by fitting observations with historical time series generated by the model to form consistent forecast states, and therefore does not require implementation of the adjoint of tangent linear approximation. To evaluate the performance of the DRP-4DVar on assimilating different types of mesoscale observations, some observing system simulation experiments are conducted using MM5 and a comparison is made between adjoint-based 4DVar and DRP-4DVar using a 6-hour assimilation window.     

一次降水天气过程的GPS掩星资料在GSI同化系统中的应用

为了探索全球定位卫星观测系统无线电掩星技术(Global Positioning System/Radio Occulta-tion,简称GPSRO)在业务数值预报模式中的应用效果,以美国NCEP(National Centers for Environ-mental Prediction)业务同化系统为平台,对有/无COSMIC(Constellation Observing System for Meteor-ology,Ionosphere and Climate)GPS无线电掩星观测资料进行了一次降水过程的详细的同化对比试验。试验中GPSRO观测算子主要采用了相对简单但计算省时的局地(Local)同化技术。该个例试验表明:COSMICGPS掩星观测对分析影响较大的地区是常规观测资料较稀缺地区(如洋面),因此在这些地区GPSRO资料可以被看作是对常规观测很好的补充。同时还注意到COSMIC GPS RO资料在对流层下层对湿度场分析和预报的影响显著,在对流层中上层对风场分析也产生正面影响。这证实GPS RO资料在业务数值天气预报中应用的有效性,为我国数值预报未来开展业务GPS掩星观测资料同化提供了有益的科学参考依据。     

二氧化碳储存环境对油井水泥性质影响之研究

二氧化碳存入地下以地质封存方式进行减量是一项可行的工程手段。干燥情况下二氧化碳基本没有危害。然而在进行地质封存时,气井通常在地下水层、盐水层等潮湿的环境下操作,二氧化碳与水结合会形成碳酸,形成一个酸性的环境。实验室将API G级油井水泥添加包括飞灰、膨润土、重晶石与硅粉,在潮湿(100%)、饱和二氧化碳（常压,70 ℃）环境条件下养护28 d,研究其力学性能、化学成分及微观结构之间的关系。试验项目包括抗压强度、微观结构分析、X射线衍射及EDS扫描电镜。观察其养护样品发现,API G级添加飞灰的水泥呈现出最佳抗压强度及最深的碳化深度。而API G级添加膨润土的水泥现出最低抗压强度及最浅的碳化深度     

边缘裂缝圆盘砂岩试体III型断裂韧度量测之研究

针对含边缘裂缝之砂岩试体受反平面剪力情形进行了III型断裂韧度量测试验,搭配相关所推导之理论公式求取砂岩III型断裂韧度。研究试验条件为无围压及单轴荷重加载下进行III型断裂试验,且针对试体受高温后之性质改变为变量条件加以探讨。研究结果表明,以该方式进行III型断裂韧度之量测,为可靠且稳定;砂岩经历温度在200 ℃前,试体III型断裂韧度会提升,之后呈现下降,到600 ℃,下降趋于平缓;随着烧结温度的提升,单压强度、动态杨氏模量、动态泊松比与III型断裂韧度皆有下降之趋势,且试体出现熔融样态,表面出现明显微裂纹。     

USE OF SURFACE GUIDE PANELS AS PIER SCOUR COUNTERMEASURES

1 INTRODUCTION Protection of bridge piers against local scour is of major importance to bridge maintenance. The safety of bridges is seriously threatened by the river flood during typhoons or thunderstorms. In Taiwan typhoon’s floods are often so strong in possession of high energy to transport a large amount of bed sediment in river. The average velocity in a flood river can go typically over 3 m/s even up to 5 m/s, several times of the regular flow speed. The peak discharge of flood i…     

Comparison of Sea Surface Heights Derived from Satellite Altimetry and from Ocean Bottom Pressure Gauges: The SW Pacific MOTEVAS Project

A bottom pressure gauge (BPG) was installed in proximity (3.7 km at closest approach) of Jason-1 and formerly TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground track No. 238 at the Wusi site, located ～ 10 km offshore off the west coast of Santo Island, Vanuatu, Southwest (SW) Pacific. Sea level variations are inferred from the bottom pressure, seawater temperature, and salinity, corrected for the measured surface atmospheric pressure. The expansion of the water column (steric increase in sea surface height, SSH) due to temperature and salinity changes is approximated by the equation of state. We compare time series of SSH derived from T/P Side B altimeter Geophysical Data Records (GDR) and Jason-1 Interim Geophysical Data Records (IGDR), with the gauge-inferred sea level variations. Since altimeter SSH is a geocentric measurement, whereas the gauge-inferred observation is a relative sea level measurement, SSH comparison is conducted with the means of both series removed in this study. In addition, high-rate (1-Hz) bottom pressure implied wave heights (H _1/3 ) are compared with the significant wave height (SWH) measured by Jason-1. Noticeable discrepancy is found in this comparison for high waves, however the differences do not contribute significantly to the difference in sea level variations observed between the altimeter and the pressure gauge. In situ atmospheric pressure measurements are also used to verify the inverse barometer (IB) and the dry troposphere corrections (DTC) used in the Jason IGDR. We observe a bias between the IGDR corrections and those derived from the local sensors. Standard deviations of the sea level differences between T/P and BPG is 52 mm and is 48 mm between Jason and BPG, indicating that both altimeters have similar performance at the Wusi site and that it is feasible to conduct long-term monitoring of altimetry at such a site.     

从震源孕育模式讨论大震前地下水的变化

一、前言 大震前地下水的变化是地震预报的手段之一,由于它容易被广大群众所掌握,所以具有比较普遍的意义。但是地下水变化的原因却很复杂,所以有必要搞清地下水变化的特征与地震的关系,即哪些有关,哪些无关。对这个问题,除了对水文地质条件、旱涝、气压变化、涨河、灌溉、人工用水以及潮汐力等因素进行分析外,还必须将地下水的变化与震源孕育的模式联系起来进行分析。本文主要是根据文献[3]中所介绍的一种震源孕育模式,结合具体的地震实例来探讨大震前地下水的变化特征。     

Spatial and temporal variation of gravity field in the capital region

Ｓｐａｔｉａｌａｎｄｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｏｆ　ｇｒａｖｉｔｙ　ｆｉｅｌｄｉｎｔｈｅｃａｐｉｔａｌｒｅｇｉｏｎＣｈａｎｇ－ＣａｉＨＵＡ；（华昌才）ＹｏｎｇＧＵＯ；（果勇）Ｄｕａｎ－ＦａＬＩＵ；（刘瑞法）ＧａｎｇＸＩＡＯ；（肖钢），Ｊ．Ｔ．...     

Numerical Assessing Experiments on the Individual Component Impact of the Meteorological Observation Network on the ＂July 2000＂ Torrential Rain in Beijing

In an effort to assess the impact of the individual component of meteorological observations (ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor,automatic and conventional meteorological observations) on the torrential rain event in 4-5 July 2000 in Beijing (with the 24-h accumulated precipitation reaching 240 mm),24-h observation system experiments are conducted numerically by using the MM5/WRF 3DVAR system and the nonhydrostatic MM5 model.Results indicate that,because the non-conventional GPS observations are directly assimilated into the initial analyses by 3DVAR system,better initial fields and 24-h simulation for the severe precipitation event are achieved than those under the MM5/Litter_R objective analysis scheme. Further analysis also shows that the individual component of meteorological observation network plays their special positive role in the improvement of initial field analysis and forecasting skills.3DVAR scheme with or without radiosonde and pilot observation has the most significant influence on numerical simulation,and automatic and conventional surface meteorological observations rank second.After acquiring the supplement information from the other meteorological observations,the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor data can more obviously reflect initial field assimilation and precipitation forecast.By incorporating the ground- based GPS precipitable water vapor data into the 3DVAR analyses at the initial time,the threat scores (TS) with thresholds of 1,5,10,and 20 mm are increased by 1%-8% for 6- and 24-h accumulated precipitation observations,respectively.This work gives one helpful example that assesses the impact of individual component of the existing meteorological observation network on the high influence weather event using 3DVAR numerical system.     

基于空间差异的黑河中游土地多功能利用研究

土地多功能利用是提高土地利用综合效率、协调用地矛盾的有效途径。选择人地关系较活跃的黑河中游为研究区,融合多源数据,采用集对分析、热点分析和空间自相关等方法,对2000-2014年土地多功能利用进行动态评价及空间关系揭示。结果表明：土地利用功能增加了近一倍,以社会功能和经济功能为主;各功能之间表现为协同或互斥关系：社会功能和经济功能、环境功能和文化功能之间均呈正相关关系,但社会功能和环境功能之间呈负相关关系;土地利用各功能均具有明显的空间聚集性特点,多功能利用集中在黑河水系形成的绿洲平原区、区县建成区和南部山区。研究结果对干旱区土地持续利用管理具有重要的借鉴意义。