Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979–2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500?hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well.     

Constraints and Categories of Vadose Zone Monitoring Devices

Traditional monitoring methods using chemical analysis of ground water samples to detect pollutant migration are being superseded or used in conjunction with innovative approaches. A need to detect pollutants before they reach the water table has drawn interest to vadose (unsaturated) zone monitoring and brought together hydrogeologists, soil scientists and agricultural engineers who have been working on this subject for years.
Recent studies have identified over 50 different types of vadose zone monitoring devices and methods that have optimum utility in varying hydrogeologic settings. In general, measurements made in the vadose zone are trying to define storage, transmission of liquid waste in terms of flux and velocity, and pollutant mobility.
Criteria for the selection of alternative vadose zone monitoring methods are important for the development of site-specific systems. These criteria include: type of site; applicability to new, active, and abandoned sites; power requirements; depth limitations; multiple use capability; type of data collection system; reliability and life expectancy; degree of operational complexity; direct versus indirect methods; applicability to alternate media; effect on flow regime; and effect of hazardous waste on sampling or measurements. Application of the selection criteria is discussed in Everett et al. (1982a).     

‘Evolution of a Storm-driven Cloudy Boundary Layer in the Arctic’

To investigate the processes of development and maintenance of low-level clouds during major synoptic events, the cloudy boundary layer under stormy conditions during the summertime Arctic has been studied using observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment and large-eddy simulations (LES). On 29 July 1998, a stable Arctic cloudy boundary-layer event was observed after the passage of a synoptic low pressure system. The local dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the boundary layer was determined from aircraft measurements including the analysis of turbulence, cloud microphysics and radiative properties. After the upper cloud layer advected over the existing cloud layer, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget indicated that the cloud layer below 200 m was maintained predominantly by shear production. Observations of longwave radiation showed that cloud-top cooling at the lower cloud top has been suppressed by radiative effects of the upper cloud layer. Our LES results demonstrate the importance of the combination of shear mixing near the surface and radiative cooling at the cloud top in the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer. Once the low-level cloud reaches a certain height, depending on the amount of cloud-top cooling, the two sources of TKE production begin to separate in space under continuous stormy conditions, suggesting one possible mechanism for the cloud layering. The sensitivity tests suggest that the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer is possibly switched to the shear-driven system due to the advection of upper clouds or to the buoyantly driven system due to the lack of wind shear. A comparison is made of this storm-driven boundary layer with the buoyantly driven boundary layer previously described in the literature.     

Liquefaction-induced ground deformations at Hotel Sapanca during Kocaeli (Izmit),Turkey earthquake

This paper presents a study of liquefaction-induced ground deformations at the Hotel Sapanca site during the 1999 Kocaeli (Izmit)—Turkey earthquake. The paper discusses: (1) observed ground deformations and displacements after the earthquake, (2) the results of field investigations by means of borings and in situ index tests including standard penetration tests (SPT), static cone penetration tests (CPT) and piezocone (CPTU) tests, (3) analyses of observed ground settlements and lateral deformations by a suite of methods, and (4) comparisons of observed and calculated ground movements.     

Ice cover exists: A quick method to delineate groundwater inputs in running waters for cold and temperate regions

Groundwater can be important in regulating stream thermal regimes in cold, temperate regions, and as such, it can be a significant factor for aquatic biota habits and habitats. Groundwater typically remains at a constant temperature through time; that is, it is warmer than surface water in winter and cooler in summer. Further, small tributaries are often dominated by groundwater during low flows of winter and summer. We exploit these thermal patterns to identify and delineate tributary/groundwater inputs along a frozen river (ice‐on) using publically available satellite data, and we tested the findings against airborne, thermal infrared (TIR) data. We utilize a supervised maximum likelihood classification (sMLC) to identify possible groundwater inputs while the river is in a frozen state (kappa coefficient of 96.77 when compared with visually delineated possible groundwater inputs). We then compare sMLC‐identified possible groundwater inputs with TIR‐classified groundwater inputs, which confirmed that there was no statistical difference (χ² = .78), that is, confirming that groundwater inputs can be delineated in north temperate river systems using available satellite imagery of the system's frozen state. Our results also established the spatial extent and influence of possible groundwater inputs in two seasons. The thermal plumes were longer and narrower in winter; this is likely related to seasonal differences in dispersion regimes. We hypothesize that differences between summer and winter is related to either (a) tributaries that are modulated by shading in summer or (b) aquifer disconnection from the river in winter owing to frozen ground conditions and lack of aquifer recharge. This method of establishing tributary/groundwater inputs and contributions to surface water thermal regimes is relatively simple and can be useful for science and management as long as “ice cover exists”; that is, the system can achieve a frozen state.