The Monitor project: JW 380 – a 0.26-, 0.15-M⊙, pre-main-sequence eclipsing binary in the Orion nebula cluster

We present a general recipe for constructing N -body realizations of galaxies comprising near spherical and disc components. First, an exact spherical distribution function for the spheroids (halo and bulge) is determined, such that it is in equilibrium with the gravitational monopole of the disc components. Second, an N -body realization of this model is adapted to the full disc potential by growing the latter adiabatically from its monopole. Finally, the disc is sampled with particles drawn from an appropriate distribution function, avoiding local-Maxwellian approximations. We performed test simulations and find that the halo and bulge radial density profile very closely match their target model, while they become slightly oblate due to the added disc gravity. Our findings suggest that vertical thickening of the initially thin disc is caused predominantly by spiral and bar instabilities, which also result in a radial re-distribution of matter, rather than scattering off interloping massive halo particles.     

Data selection using support vector regression

Geophysical data sets are growing at an ever-increasing rate, requiring computationally efficient data selection(thinning)methods to preserve essential information. Satellites, such as Wind Sat, provide large data sets for assessing the accuracy and computational efficiency of data selection techniques. A new data thinning technique, based on support vector regression(SVR), is developed and tested. To manage large on-line satellite data streams, observations from Wind Sat are formed into subsets by Voronoi tessellation and then each is thinned by SVR(TSVR). Three experiments are performed. The first confirms the viability of TSVR for a relatively small sample, comparing it to several commonly used data thinning methods(random selection, averaging and Barnes filtering), producing a 10% thinning rate(90% data reduction), low mean absolute errors(MAE) and large correlations with the original data. A second experiment, using a larger dataset, shows TSVR retrievals with MAE < 1 m s-1and correlations 0.98. TSVR was an order of magnitude faster than the commonly used thinning methods. A third experiment applies a two-stage pipeline to TSVR, to accommodate online data. The pipeline subsets reconstruct the wind field with the same accuracy as the second experiment, is an order of magnitude faster than the nonpipeline TSVR. Therefore, pipeline TSVR is two orders of magnitude faster than commonly used thinning methods that ingest the entire data set. This study demonstrates that TSVR pipeline thinning is an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to commonly used data selection techniques.     

Recent Developments in the Analysis of the Black Mat Layer and Cosmic Impact at 12.8 ka

Recent analyses of sediment samples from “black mat” sites in South America and Europe support previous interpretations of an ET impact event that reversed the Late Glacial demise of LGM ice during the Bølling Allerød warming, resulting in a resurgence of ice termed the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling episode. The breakup or impact of a cosmic vehicle at the YD boundary coincides with the onset of a 1‐kyr long interval of glacial resurgence, one of the most studied events of the Late Pleistocene. New analytical databases reveal a corpus of data indicating that the cosmic impact was a real event, most possibly a cosmic airburst from Earth's encounter with the Taurid Complex comet or unknown asteroid, an event that led to cosmic fragments exploding interhemispherically over widely dispersed areas, including the northern Andes of Venezuela and the Alps on the Italian/French frontier. While the databases in the two areas differ somewhat, the overall interpretation is that microtextural evidence in weathering rinds and in sands of associated paleosols and glaciofluvial deposits carry undeniable attributes of melted glassy carbon and Fe spherules, planar deformation features, shock‐melted and contorted quartz, occasional transition and platinum metals, and brecciated and impacted minerals of diverse lithologies. In concert with other black mat localities in the Western USA, the Netherlands, coastal France, Syria, Central Asia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, it appears that a widespread cosmic impact by an asteroid or comet is responsible for deposition of the black mat at the onset of the YD glacial event. Whether or not the impact caused a 1‐kyr interval of glacial climate depends upon whether or not the Earth had multiple centuries‐long episodic encounters with the Taurid Complex or asteroid remnants; impact‐related changes in microclimates sustained climatic forcing sufficient to maintain positive mass balances in the reformed ice; and/or inertia in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation system persisted for 1 kyr.     

Paraglacial response of steep,sediment‐mantled slopes to post‐‘Little Ice Age’ glacier recession in the central Swiss Alps

This research assesses the morphological consequences of recent (post‐‘Little Ice Age’) paraglacial reworking of valley‐side sediment mantles in the European Alps. It aims to identify the extent and conditioning factors of slope adjustment at sites in the Swiss Alps, model the temporal pattern, and assess the rates of sediment reworking involved. Gully systems have cut into steep, high‐level lateral moraines, and debris cones have accumulated downslope. Debris flow is the dominant agent of sediment transfer. Factors controlling the extent of this activity include moraine slope gradient, relief and moisture availability. Gullies appear to have reached their maximum dimensions within ca. 50 yr of deglaciation, after which gully relief is reduced by removal of inter‐gully slopes and gully infilling (within 80–140 yr). On the most recently deglaciated terrain, minimum erosion rates average ca. 95 mm yr^?1 since gully initiation, greatly exceeding ‘normal’ erosion rates in other environments. Mean annual accumulation of a single debris cone since ice retreat was calculated to be ca. 30 mm yr^?1. Implications of these findings are applied to patterns of paraglacial sediment‐mantled slope adjustment, conceptualising paraglacial landscape response in terms of a sediment release exhaustion model, and paraglacial landform succession. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polar wander on Mars: Evidence in the geoid

The geoid of Mars is dominated by its equilibrium figure and by the effect of the Tharsis rise. To investigate the rotational stability of Mars prior to the rise of Tharsis, we produced a residual non-hydrostatic geoid without Tharsis. First the hydrostatic component of the present-day flattening was removed. This procedure was performed using a 6% non-hydrostatic component of flattening, a value set by the spin axis precession rate of Mars. Then zonal spherical harmonics up to degree 6 centered on Tharsis were removed. Finally, the resultant residual geoid was evaluated for rotational stability by comparing polar and equatorial moments at 4050 trial pole positions. If the spin axis of ancient Mars was secularly stable, our analysis indicates that substantial polar wander has occurred with the rise of Tharsis. Stable spin axis positions on the non-hydrostatic residual figure of Mars are 15° to 90° from the present-day poles. This result is consistent with previously proposed paleopoles based on magnetic anomalies, geomorphology, and grazing impacts.     

Analysis of one-dimesional wave propagation in a fluid-saturated finite soil column

Biot's dynamic equations of motion for one-dimensional wave propagation in a fluid-saturated linear elastic isotropic soil are solved using Laplace transformation followed by numerical inversion and the results compared with a direct finite element formulation. A soil column of finite dimension subjected to velocity boundary conditions is analysed, allowing for reflection of waves from boundaries. Comparison of time histories at given points along the column shows that the finite element solution gives good agreement with the Laplace transform solution for low as well as high drag.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.