Rockfall risk assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy)

The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions).     

The distribution of chlorophyll-a and dominant planktonic components in the coastal transition zone off Concepción, central Chile, during different oceanographic conditions

The oceanographic setting and the planktonic distribution in the coastal transition zone off Concepción (∼35-38°S, ∼73-77°W), an area characterized by its high biological production, were assessed during two different seasons: austral spring with equatorward upwelling favorable winds and austral winter with predominately northerly winds. Oceanographic and biological data (total chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, microplankton, large mesozooplankton >500 μm as potential consumers of microplankton) were obtained during two cruises (October 1998, July 1999) together with satellite imagery for wind stress, geostrophic flow, surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a data. The physical environment during the spring sampling was typical of the upwelling period in this region, with a well-defined density front in the shelf-break area and high concentrations of surface chlorophyll-a (>5 mg m⁻³) on the shelf over the Itata terrace. During the winter sampling, highly variable though weakly upwelling-favorable winds were observed along with lower surface chlorophyll-a values (<2 mg m⁻³) on the shelf. In the oceanic area (>100 km from the coast), cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies were evident in the flow field during both periods, the former coinciding with higher chlorophyll-a contents (∼1 mg m⁻³) than in the surrounding waters. Also, a cold, chlorophyll-a rich filament was well defined during the spring sampling, extending from the shelf out to 350-400 km offshore. Along a cross-shelf transect, the micro- and meso-planktonic assemblages displayed higher coastal abundances during the spring cruise but secondary peaks appeared in the oceanic area during the winter cruise, coinciding with the distribution of the eddies. These results suggest that the mesoscale features in this region, in combination with upwelling, play a role in potentially increasing the biological productivity of the coastal transition zone off Concepción.     

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α?≤?0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67?×?10⁸?pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.     

气象卫星云图的多分辨小波分解及人工神经网络降水估计研究

采用多分辨小波分析对卫星图象进行预处理 ,在保留其特征信息的同时 ,减小了数据量 ,改善了神经网络训练过程的收敛性能 ,提高了处理速度。采用这一方法根据 GOES- 8的红外亮温图象和气象雷达资料对巴西圣保罗州中部的降水量估计进行了试验 ,取得了良好的效果。     

Disentangling the role of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the Amazonian droughts in 2015

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - El Niño events lead to worldwide changes in the inter-annual variability of precipitation, and more in particular to South America droughts. In the year...     

Analysis of soil drying incorporating a constitutive model for curling

This paper focuses on the shrinkage behavior of soil specimens involving sand, kaolinite, and kaolinite/sand mixtures subjected to desiccation under controlled conditions. Both, free and restrained shrinkage conditions are studied. The experiments show that pure soils do not curl upon unrestrained shrinkage; however, (under the same conditions) kaolinite/sand mixtures exhibited a marked curling. Furthermore, the mixture with the higher sand content broke through the middle of the sample after displaying a significant curling. Soils subjected to restricted shrinkage developed cracks with slight curling. To simulate the observed behavior, a mechanical model able to reproduce the detachment of the soil sample from the mold is proposed in this work and implemented in a fully coupled hydro-mechanical finite-element code. It is concluded that suction and differential shrinkage are key factors influencing the curling behavior of soils. The proposed framework was able to satisfactorily explain and reproduce the different stages and features of soil behavior observed in the experiments.

     

Experimental seismic shear force amplification in scaled RC cantilever shear walls with base irregularities

RC structural slender walls under large seismic excitation are expected to reach base moment capacity mainly affected by the first vibration mode. However, the base shear could be affected by higher modes once yielding in flexure has occurred, which might result in base shear underestimation in linear design. In this work, an experimental program is carried out on five RC rectangular walls 1:10 scaled. All five specimens considered irregularities at base, common in construction and one specimen did not consider shear reinforcement or boundary detailing. Tests are carried on a unidirectional shaking table and excitation is based on two Chile earthquake records with different intensities. Damage is concentrated at the wall base for all specimens; primary due to flexure with some participation of shear. For one of the records an average amplification of 1.3 is obtained, and a decrease in height of the resultant equivalent lateral force closes to 0.4 h_w. By increasing the intensity of the input record, amplification grows to an average of 1.7, while it decreases drastically when subjected to input records with low frequency content. No significant difference is observed in shear amplification in specimens with a base central opening, nor with setback, even though the cracking and failure mode was different for such specimens. Ductility demand shows no correlation when two different earthquakes are considered, whereas the frequency content and Arias intensity (I_a) of the input record directly affected the shear amplification.     

Generative Adversarial Network Applied to Ore Type Modeling in Complex Geological Environments

Mathematical Geosciences - In complex geological environments, the spatial domain characterization of different ore types has been one of the most important challenges in the assessment of mineral...     

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.