利用卫星遥感资料对南海北部陆架海洋表层温度锋的分析

利用7年(1993～1999)月平均的SST卫星遥感资料，分析了南海北部陆架区域海洋表层温度锋在一年中的逐月变化特征，表明南海北部陆架海洋表层温度锋存在明显的季节内变化。结合风场的卫星遥感资料，分析了东北季风对南海北部陆架温度锋的影响，表明东北季风风速的增加有利于温度锋强度的增强。通过对黑潮南海流套入侵较强的1999年2月与流套入侵较弱的1998年2月的SST卫星遥感资料的对比分析，考察了黑潮南海流套的入侵对南海北部陆架温度锋的影响，结果表明黑潮流套的较强入侵能够增加陆架温度锋的强度，对温度锋的走向也会产生一定的影响。     

基于GPS掩星技术反演大气参数模型的优化

准确掌握地球大气中的水气分布，了解水气变化趋势对天气现象、全球气候变化、数值预报具有理论研究及实用价值。以无线电掩星技术为基础，利用掩星数据反演大气参数剖面。对原反演模型的不足进行了论证，并给出了反演个例。详细地论述了通过引入MM5先验温度T再通过线性迭代的方法反演对流层下部水汽廓线原理，给出了优化后模型反演个例。并对模型优化后反演廓线中存在的问题进行了分析，提出了下一步优化方向。     

极端洪水导致的湖泊水位抬升和氮磷输入增加对苦草(Vallisneria natans)的复合影响

据全球气候变化模型预测,未来极端洪水事件将呈现增多和加剧态势。极端洪水对沉水植物功能性状、生长发育状况及整个生态系统均有深远的影响,研究极端洪水对沉水植物生长发育的影响对理解和预测气候变化过程中水生态系统的变化具有重要意义。本文针对极端洪水事件引起的水位急剧上升和营养负荷量增加双重效应,在实验周期90 d内设置对照(水位保持75 cm)、2种极端洪水条件(水位在第1天从75 cm快速上升至150 cm + NP输入、水位从75 cm逐步上升至150 cm + NP输入)以及水位保持75 cm + NP输入4项处理(后3项处理中营养输入总量相同),研究了极端洪水对沉水植物苦草(Vallisneria natans)生长、繁殖对策及生物量分配的影响,实验过程中还同步监测了浮游植物、附着藻类和水体营养状况(TN和TP)。在苦草的17个测定指标中,只有根生物量分配和有性繁殖分配在4个处理下无明显变化。从水位的单独作用看,相对于营养增加且水位恒定的处理,两种洪水条件(水位急剧上升和逐步上升)均降低了苦草的分株数、叶片数、间隔子数、间隔子总长、最大根长、花果数以及各器官生物量和总生物量,促进了人工基质表面附着藻类的生长。水位急剧上升时,植株对间隔子的生物量投资倾向于最小,而株高和植株对叶的生物量投资倾向于最大。从营养负荷的单独作用来看,相对于对照组,营养增加且水位恒定的处理中水体N浓度显著增加,促进浮游植物和苦草表面附着藻类的生长,但是从二者的Chl.a浓度来看,浮游植物遮光作用相对较大,抑制了苦草叶、根和间隔子的生长,但有性繁殖生物量无明显变化。从水位和营养负荷联合作用的模式来看,水位上升和营养负荷两个环境因素的联合作用会使入湖营养负荷加强水位上升对沉水植物生长的影响效应,二者的联合作用使叶、根、间隔子和有性繁殖生物量均大大降低。因此,极端洪水对沉水植物的不利影响较大,一方面水位抬升会直接影响沉水植物,另一方面会通过浮游植物间接影响沉水植物生长发育。     

海沟影响下深水海洋管线成环行为研究

在深水海洋管线的安装过程中,制造工艺的偏差和外部环境的影响易导致管线上不均匀的扭矩分布,在张力的共同作用下,管线在其触地区可能出现“成环”现象,受到严重损伤,而海洋管线的触地区也是海沟集中形成的区域。为了研究海沟对海洋管线成环行为的影响,基于OrcaFlex软件和构建海沟模型的经验公式,建立了深水悬链线立管和海沟的三维数值模型。就海沟轮廓、位置和土壤属性对立管成环行为的影响展开参数分析,并研究了不同工况下成环的临界载荷。研究表明：海沟的产生和扩展、立管相对海沟的合理位置以及土壤参数中海床表面不排水抗剪强度和吸力因子的增加,可有效降低立管成环过程中的最大压缩力和最大弯矩,从而减少成环引起的损伤;临界载荷的分析则有助于对成环的临界条件进行预测,避免成环现象的发生。     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

Expression of putative zinc-finger protein lcn61 gene in lymphocystis disease virus China （LCDV-cn） genome

An open reading frame (lcn61) of lymphocystis disease virus China (LCDV-cn), probably responsible for encoding putative zinc-finger proteins was amplified and inserted into pET24a (+) vector. Then it expressed in E. coli BL21 (DE3), and His-tag fusion protein of high yield was obtained. It was found that the fusion protein existed in E. coli mainly as inclusion bodies. The bioinformatics analysis indicates that LCN61 is C2H2 type zinc-finger protein containing four C2H2 zinc-finger motifs. This work provides a theory for functional research of lcn61 gene. Supported by High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2006AA100309)     

Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

基于便携式X射线荧光光谱法的深海沉积物现场成分快速检测及适用性评估

远洋粘土、硅藻软泥、铁锰结核及结壳是常见的深海沉积成因物质类型,在开展深海地质调查工作时及时获得这些物质的成分信息,对于提升海上地质调查效率和认知能力十分重要。通过便携式X射线荧光光谱法（pXRF）对菲律宾海深水区域60个样品进行分析,并结合实验室测试结果,评估pXRF能测出的24种元素含量数据的稳定性、准确性及相关性,探讨pXRF在海上地质调查工作中对于深海沉积物现场成分快速检测的适用性。通过综合对比研究发现,Ca、Cu、Fe、K、P、Pb、Sr、Zn、Zr九种元素稳定性、准确性和相关性较好,可以直接用于定性乃至定量研究工作。Al、Ba、Mn、Mo、Ni、Rb、Si、Ti、Th、V十种元素的三项指标参数等级略低,可用于含量高低判定和趋势分析等定性研究工作。Bi、Cs、Mg、Sb、Sc五种元素的测试效果较差,本法不建议使用。取样量充足且分布均匀、湿样烘干至恒量后研磨过筛、封装时充分压实平整、测试时间增长、选择合适的标准物质校正和检验、重点和异常样品增加测试次数等措施的执行有利于获得高精度的pXRF海上测试数据。未来对更多类型和数量深海样品开展pXRF现场分析,将有利于建立更精准的测试方法流程,达到现场快速揭示样品成分特征、确定底质类型及圈定矿化异常等目的,为海上关键决策的部署和实施提供参考和借鉴。