Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.     

Evaluation of the vegetated urban canopy model (VUCM) and its impacts on urban boundary layer simulation

The vegetated urban canopy model (VUCM) is implemented in a meteorological model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), for urban atmospheric modeling. The VUCM includes various urban physical processes such as in-canyon radiative transfer, turbulent energy exchanges, substrate heat conduction, and in-canyon momentum drag. The coupled model RAMS/VUCM is evaluated and then used to examine its impacts on the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the urban boundary layer (UBL) in the Seoul metropolitan area. The spatial pattern of the nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) in Seoul is quite well simulated by the RAMS/VUCM. A statistical evaluation of 2-m air temperature reveals a significant improvement in model performance, especially in the nighttime. The RAMS/VUCM simulates the diurnal variations of surface energy balance fluxes realistically. This contributes to a reasonable UBL formation. A weakly unstable UBL is formed in the nighttime with UBL heights of about 100–200 m. When urban surfaces are represented in the RAMS using a land surface model of the Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF), the RAMS/LEAF produces strong cold biases and thus fails to simulate UHI formation. This is due to the poor representation or absence of important urban physical processes in the RAMS/LEAF. This study implies that urban physical processes should be included in numerical models in order to reasonably simulate meteorology and air quality in urban areas and that the VUCM is one of the promising urban canopy models.     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Vertical distribution of giant jellyfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nemopilema nomurai</Emphasis> using acoustics and optics

Nemopilema nomurai jellyfish, which are believed to complete their development in the East China Sea, have started migrating into the Yellow Sea in recent years. We obtained biomass estimates of this species in the Yellow Sea using bottom trawl fishing gear and sighting surveys over a 5-year period. These methods are effective for obtaining N. nomurai jellyfish density estimates and information about the community distribution near the bottom or surface of the sea. To verify the vertical distributions of giant jellyfish between, we used hydroacoustic equipment, including an optical stereo camera system attached to a towed sledge and an echo counting method with scientific echosounder system. Acoustic and optical data were collected while the vessel moved at 3 knots, from which the distribution and density of N. nomurai jellyfish were analyzed. Subsequently, the camera system was towed from a 7 m mean depth to sea level, with the detection range of the acoustic system extending from an 8 m depth to the bottom surface. The optical and acoustic methods indicated the presence of vertical distribution of 0.11³ (inds/m³) and 0.064 (inds/m3), respectively. However, the vertical distribution indicated that around 93% of individuals occurred at a depth range of 10–40 m; thus, a 2.4-fold greater density was estimated by acoustic echo counting compared to the optical method.     

Hydrogeology of a montane headwater groundwater system downgradient of a coal-mine waste rock dump: Elk Valley,British Columbia,Canada

Steelmaking-coal waste rock placed in mountain catchments in the Elk Valley, British Columbia, Canada, drain constituents of interest (CIs) to surface water downgradient of the waste rock dumps. The role of groundwater in transporting CIs in the headwaters of mountain catchments is not well understood. This study characterizes the physical hydrogeology of a portion of a 10-km² headwater catchment (West Line Creek) downgradient of a 2.7-km² waste rock dump placed over a natural headwater valley-bottom groundwater system. The study site was instrumented with 13 monitoring wells. Drill core samples were collected to determine subsurface lithology and geotechnical properties. The groundwater system was characterized using field testing and water-level monitoring. The valley-bottom sediments were composed of unconsolidated glacial and meltwater successions (<64 m thick) deposited as a series of cut and fill structures overlying shale bedrock. An unconfined basal alluvial aquifer located above fractured bedrock was identified as the primary conduit for groundwater flow toward Line Creek (650 m from the toe of the dump). Discharge through the basal alluvial aquifer was estimated using the geometric mean hydraulic conductivity (±1 standard deviation). These calculations suggest groundwater discharge could account for approximately 15% (ranging from 2 to 60%) of the total water discharged from the watershed. The residence time from the base of the waste rock dump to Line Creek was estimated at <3 years. The groundwater system was defined as a snowmelt (i.e., nival) regime dominated by direct recharge (percolation of precipitation) across the catchment.