Evaluating a modified point-based method to downscale cell-based climate variable data to high-resolution grids

To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets.     

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标

以黄瓜品种津优35号(Jingyou 35)为试材,于2011年设计不同低温（5、7、9、11 ℃,以25 ℃为对照）处理的人工环境控制试验,系统研究不同低温胁迫对黄瓜叶片光合作用特性及抗氧化酶活性的影响。结果表明：黄瓜叶片最大光合速率随低温胁迫程度的增加依次降低;在不同低温胁迫下,随胁迫时间的延长,黄瓜叶片光补偿点不断升高,光饱和点不断降低;在5 ℃、7 ℃和9 ℃低温处理下,随胁迫时间的延长,光系统Ⅱ最大光化学效率呈下降趋势,光化学淬灭不断降低,非光化学淬灭的变化趋势相反;黄瓜叶片中的超氧化物歧化酶活性随着处理温度的降低先升高后下降;过氧化物酶活性在9 ℃处理24 h后达到最高;过氧化氢酶活性随着处理温度的降低而升高;丙二醛含量大于对照,随胁迫程度的增加先升高,后略有下降。通过研究建立了温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标,划分为4个等级,分别为轻度、中度、重度和极重,可为设施农业气象服务提供科学依据。     

A Fundamental Plane of Black Hole Activity: Pushing Forward the Unification Scheme

We examine the disc-jet connection in stellar mass and supermassive black holes by investigating the properties of their compact emission in the hard X-ray and radio bands. We compile a sample of ∼100 active galactic nuclei with measured mass, 5 GHz core emission, and 2–10 keV luminosity, together with eight galactic black holes with a total of ∼50 simultaneous observations in the radio and X-ray bands. Using this sample, we study the correlations between the radio (L_R) and the X-ray (L_X) luminosity and the black hole mass (M). We find that the radio luminosity is correlated with both M and L_X, at a highly significant level. We show how this result can be used to extend the standard unification by orientation scheme to encompass unification by mass and accretion rate.     

Basait generation at the Apollo 12 site,Part 2: Source heterogeneity,multiple melts,and crustal contamination

Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.     

Structural trends and palaeogeography of the central and western Sicily belt: new insights

The geology of the Sicilian mainland is summarized by N–S geological sections. A continuous late Cenozoic orogenic belt through central and western Sicily resulted from a complex deformative history, recorded by several tectonic events. The deformation mainly involved the sedimentary cover of the old African continental margin, formed in a large basinal area, bordered at its southern margin by a shallow-water carbonate environment attached to Gondwana. The orogenic belt involves a complex architecture of thrust systems, of different size, geometry and palaeogeographical origin. Deformation, which mainly developed in the earlier stages of thrusting in the basinal rock assemblages, mainly gave rise to a stack of three different duplex structures, respectively, composed of Palaeozoic, Mesozoic–Palaeogene and Neogene strata. Large-scale clockwise rotation of the thrusts predated transpressional movements in the hinterland during the latest Miocene to Pliocene. High- angle reverse faults, with lateral components, modified earlier tectonic contacts within the allochthons. Contemporaneous southwards- directed imbrications affected the external southern areas, progressively incorporating foreland and piggyback basirts. The stratigraphic relationships of basin-fills to the tectonic structures reveals that reactivation processes have been active during the last Plio-Pleistocene.     

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Instrument Design

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument is designed to measure total solar irradiance with an absolute accuracy of 100 parts per million. Four electrical substitution radiometers behind precision apertures measure input radiant power while providing redundancy. Duty cycling the use of the radiometers tracks degradation of the nickel-phosphorous absorptive black radiometer interiors caused by solar exposure. Phase sensitive detection at the shutter frequency reduces noise and simplifies the estimate of the radiometer's equivalence ratio. An as-designed uncertainty budget estimates the instrument's accuracy goal. The TIM measurement equation defines the conversion from measured signal to solar irradiance.     

Hilda asteroids among Jupiter family comets

Hilda asteroids and comets are similar from the compositional point of view. The D-taxonomic class prevailing among Hildas has all the characteristics found in cometary spectra. Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) coming from the trans-neptunian region are under the gravitational control of Jupiter, making them a dynamically unstable population with a mean dynamical lifetime of 10⁴ to ¹⁰⁵ years. In contrast, Hilda asteroids residing in the 3:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter are a very stable population. But once they escape from the resonance, they are dynamically controlled by Jupiter, and in this sense their behavior resembles that of JFC. We performed a numerical simulation to analyze the dynamical evolution that Hildas follow after escaping from the resonance, and their contribution to the JFC population. We found that 8% of the particles leaving the resonance end up impacting Jupiter. 98.7% of the escaped Hildas live at least 1000 years as a JFC, with a mean lifetime of 1.4×¹⁰⁶ years. In particular, escaped Hildas stay mainly in the region of perihelion distances greater than 2.5 AU. On the other hand, the number of escaped Hildas reaching the inner Solar System (q<2.5 AU) is negligible. So, there are almost no Hilda asteroids among the NEO population. We also analyzed the possibility that the Shoemaker-Levy 9 were an escaped Hilda asteroid. In this case, it would be possible to give stronger constraints to its pre-capture orbital elements.