Modeling endogenous learning and imperfect competition effects in climate change economics

In this two-part paper we evaluate the effect of “endogenizing” technological learning and strategic behavior of agents in economic models used to assess climate change policies. In the first part we show the potential impact of R&D policies or demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs in the context of stringent stabilization scenarios. In the second part we show how game-theoretic methods can be implemented in climate change economic models to take into account three types of strategic interactions: (i) the market power of the countries benefiting from very low abatement costs on international markets for CO₂ emissions, (ii) the strategic behavior of governments in the domestic allocation of CO₂ emissions quotas, and (iii) the non-cooperative behavior of countries and regions in the burden sharing of CO₂ concentration stabilization. The two topics of endogenous learning and game-theoretic approach to economic modeling are two manifestations of the need to take into account the strategic behavior of agents in the evaluation of climate change policies. In the first case an R&D policy or a demonstration and deployment (D&D) program are put in place in order to attain a cost reduction through the learning effect; in the second case the agents (countries) reply optimally to the actions decided by the other agents by exploiting their strategic advantages. Simulations based on integrated assessment models illustrate the approaches. These studies have been conducted under the Swiss NCCR-Climate program.     

Atmospheric GCM response to an idealized anomaly of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature

The atmospheric response to an idealized 2 K cooling of the Mediterranean Sea is studied in a general circulation model (GCM). In the downstream region, from the eastern Mediterranean basin to the whole Asian continent (following the sub-tropical jet-stream), a baroclinic response is produced with high pressure near the surface and low pressure in the upper layers. It is the direct response to the Mediterranean cooling and it needs only a few days to be established. Teleconnections with strong zonal characteristics are found following the sub-tropical jet-stream to the North Pacific and North America, propagating further across the North Atlantic towards Northern Europe. Two remarkable remote features are the deepening of the Aleutian Low in the North Pacific and the weakening of the Icelandic Low in the North Atlantic. These two teleconnections form and grow in several days in the North Pacific and several tens of days in the North Atlantic. Both have a quasi-barotropic vertical structure. It is believed that they are the consequence of complex interactions between the mean flow and the transient eddies in the atmosphere.     

Plate Motion of India and Interseismic Strain in the Nepal Himalaya from GPS and DORIS Measurements

We analyse geodetically estimated deformation across the Nepal Himalaya in order to determine the geodetic rate of shortening between Southern Tibet and India, previously proposed to range from 12 to 21 mm yr^?1. The dataset includes spirit-levelling data along a road going from the Indian to the Tibetan border across Central Nepal, data from the DORIS station on Everest, which has been analysed since 1993, GPS campaign measurements from surveys carried on between 1995 and 2001, as well as data from continuous GPS stations along a transect at the logitude of Kathmandu operated continuously since 1997. The GPS data were processed in International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2000 (ITRF2000), together with the data from 20 International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and then combined using quasi- observation combination analysis (QOCA). Finally, spatially complementary velocities at stations in Southern Tibet, initially determined in ITRF97, were expressed in ITRF2000. After analysing previous studies by different authors, we determined the pole of rotation of the Indian tectonic plate to be located in ITRF2000 at 51.409±1.560° N and ?10.915±5.556°E, with an angular velocity of 0.483±0.015°. Myr^?1. Internal deformation of India is found to be small, corresponding to less than about 2 mm yr^?1 of baseline change between Southern India and the Himalayan piedmont. Based on an elastic dislocation model of interseismic strain and taking into account the uncertainty on India plate motion, the mean convergence rate across Central and Eastern Nepal is estimated to 19±2.5 mm yr^?1, (at the 67% confidence level). The main himalayan thrust (MHT) fault was found to be locked from the surface to a depth of about 20 km over a width of about 115 km. In these regions, the model parameters are well constrained, thanks to the long and continuous time-series from the permanent GPS as well as DORIS data. Further west, a convergence rate of 13.4±5 mm yr^?1, as well as a fault zone, locked over 150 km, are proposed. The slight discrepancy between the geologically estimated deformation rate of 21±1.5 mm yr^?1 and the 19±2.5 mm yr^?1 geodetic rate in Central and Eastern Nepal, as well as the lower geodetic rate in Western Nepal compared to Eastern Nepal, places bounds on possible temporal variations of the pattern and rate of strain in the period between large earthquakes in this region.     

Dispersion and cost analysis of some finite difference schemes in one-parameter acoustic wave modeling

Given a precision threshold to be imposed on the group velocity error and a finite difference scheme for the acoustic wave equation, it is possible to determine time-step and grid-spacing in an optimal manner, i.e., so as to minimize the computational cost. Using this optimal cost as a criterion, it becomes easy to compare schemes for efficiency in homogeneous media. Heterogeneous media with constant density can be accommodated to a certain extent by minimizing the cost over a range of Courant numbers. Such analysis shows that, amongst the second-order Taylor series schemes in time, higher-order schemes are generally more efficient than lower-order schemes. However, this result does not extend to very high order schemes.     

U-Pb,Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd chronology of granitic basement,hydrothermal albitites and uranium mineralization (Lagoa Real,South-Bahia,Brazil)

The granites orthogneisses, hydrothermal albitities and rocks which have suffered uranium mineralization from the Lagoa Real District (South State of Bahia, Brazil) have been investigated by U-Pb, Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd techniques. U-Pb values on zircons from the granitic protolith give an age of 1725 Ma; U-Pb on U-mineralization dates the primary mineralization at 1395 Ma and indicates a reworking at 480 Ma, which may represent the age of the thrusting of the Lagoa Real complex over Espinhaço metasediments during the Brazilian orogeny. These two dates are given by Rb-Sr on albitites, but from sparse information and are not supported by unequivocal arguments. The uranium deposition and sodium metasomatism, however, cannot be linked either with the thermal history of the granite or with Brazilian thrusting. Sm-Nd gives scattered results which are suggestive of autochtonous reworkings of REEs. These results lead to the following suggestions (1) magmatic activity of subalkaline affinity existed within the Sao Francisco craton at about 1.7 Ga (2) such subalkaline plutons are likely sources for U-mineralization (3) at about 1.4 Ga an unknown event caused hydrothermal activity leading to U-deposition at Lagoa Real (4) Brazilian overthrusting at about 480 Ma did not play any genetic role in the hydrothermal activity.     

America-Eurasia plate boundary in eastern Asia and the opening of marginal basins

The opening of the Arctic Ocean during the past 55 Ma resulted in relative rotation of America with respect to Eurasia about a pole located in eastern Siberia, near the plate boundary. The extensional plate boundary enters deep inside the Eurasian continent up to the rotation pole. On the opposite side of the pole, on the Pacific side of the plate boundary, compressive tectonics are recorded along Sakhalin and Hokkaido. From the Oligocene to Middle Miocene, the relative movement was accommodated by strike-slip motion along Sakhalin and Hokkaido although the rotation pole was not located at a significatively different position from now. In this paper we explain this by independent motion of the southernmost tip of the American plate towards the Pacific margin which behaves as a free boundary. This oceanward motion resulted in an extension of the American plate giving rise to the wedge structure of the Okhotsk Sea. The Japan Sea opened as a pull-apart basin along the strike-slip boundary; finally the increasing extension in the Okhotsk Sea led to the opening of the oceanic Kuril Basin.     

Volcans de la chaîne des Puys (Massif central,France) : point sur la chronologie Vasset–Kilian–Pariou–Chopine

On the basis of radiocarbon ages obtained on wood burned by base surges and tephrochronological observations, it has been possible to assess that the Puy Chopine, aged ca 9700 yr is older by a few centuries than both the Vasset and Kilian volcanoes. The last two have nearly the same age, ca 9300–9400 yr. Layers of trachytic tephra, most probably originated from Kilian or Vasset, can be observed overlapping those from the Pariou. This last volcano had been previously thought to be the younger of the area on the basis of the observation of trachytic tephra beneath its own tephra. However, new observations allow us to assume that those trachytes originated from the acid phase of the Pariou itself. Therefore, it can be assessed that the four volcanoes erupted according to the following sequence: Chopine/Pariou/?Vasset?/Kilian; the chronological situation of Vasset lies on poor arguments and it should be confirmed. To cite this article: D. Miallier et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

A peculiar distribution of radial velocities of faint radio-galaxies with 13.0≤m corr≤15.5

A sample of 41 radio-galaxies with 13.0m _corr15.5 has been analyzed to test the angular redshift anisotropy discovered on Sc I galaxies by Rubin, Rubin and Ford. The sample does not present their anisotropy but contains an even more curious distribution of radial velocities which suggests that the Rubin-Ford effect results from an anomalous redshift of light when it travels through clusters of galaxies.     

Laboratory simulation of an oxidizing perturbation in a deep granite environment

An experiment designed to study oxidizing perturbations in deep crystalline rock, a potential host for nuclear waste disposal, was conducted. This experiment simulated a fracture surface in contact with circulating groundwater, in which dissolved oxygen was injected periodically. Major physicochemical and biological parameters were monitored during this 1-yr experiment. Modeling of the results indicates that the kinetics of oxygen uptake may be represented by a simple steady-state rate law combining enzymatic catalysis (Monod) and a first-order rate law. Combined chemical and biological data demonstrate the coupling of organic/inorganic processes during the uptake of dissolved oxygen and the progressive return to reducing conditions. Timescales for these stages are discussed. Experimental results also suggest that iron-reducing bacteria, which are robust and well-adapted microorganisms, play a key role in these interfacial processes. These results show that an operational definition of the “redox buffering capacity” in a granitic medium cannot ignore the effect of bacteria and therefore the controls on bacterial substrates (organic carbon, H₂, CH₄, CO₂).