Palaeoenvironments of early hominins in temperate and Mediterranean Eurasia: new palaeobotanical data from Palaeolithic key-sites and synchronous natural sequences

The present study focuses on new palaeobotanical data (pollen, phytoliths and fruits) from three of the oldest Early Palaeolithic sites in Eurasia (Dmanisi in Georgia, Ca’ Belvedere di Monte Poggiolo in Italy and Pont-de-Lavaud in France). The main aim is to examine the ecological factors associated with the first human dispersals out of Africa into Eurasia. The palaeoecological data are discussed with regards to chronology and geographical location of the settlements. The vegetation pattern of each site consists of temperate Eurasian and Mediterranean taxa, subtropical trees being more or less recorded depending on climatic and geographic features. The new palaeobotanical data show that different vegetation structures occurred between the first human dispersal in Caucasus and the later dispersals in western Eurasia. However, in all cases hominins seemed to be adapted to temperate ecosystems. In Caucasus, human occupation took place at 1.7 Ma in a forest-steppe environment, while at ca 1 Ma human populations occupied various settings such as open landscapes or dense forests. These data suggest that during the Early Pleistocene, human populations evolved and dispersed in western Eurasia, gradually increasing their degree of adaptation to diversified environments.     

Assessment of annual high‐water events for the Mackenzie River basin,Canada

River ice break‐up is known to have important morphological, ecological and socio‐economic effects on cold‐regions river environments. One of the most persistent effects of the spring break‐up period is the occurrence of high‐water events. A return‐period assessment of maximum annual nominal water depths occurring during the spring break‐up and open‐water season at 28 Water Survey of Canada hydrometric sites over the 1913–2002 time period in the Mackenzie River basin is presented. For the return periods assessed, 13 (14) stations are dominated by peak events occurring during the spring break‐up (open‐water) season. One location is determined to have a mixed signal. A regime classification is proposed to separate ice‐ and open‐water dominated systems. As part of the regime classification procedure, specific characteristics of return‐period patterns including alignment, and difference between the 2 and 10‐year events are used to identify regime types. A dimensionless stage‐discharge plot allows for a contrast of the relative magnitudes of flows required to generate maximum nominal water‐depth events in the different regimes. At sites where discharge during the spring break‐up is approximately one‐quarter or greater than the magnitude of the peak annual discharge, nominal water depths can be expected to exceed those occurring during the peak annual discharge event. Several physical factors (location, basin area, stream order, gradient, river orientation, and climate) are considered to explain the differing regimes and discussed relative to the major sub‐regions of the MRB. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Daily river water temperature forecast model with a k‐nearest neighbour approach

Water temperature is a key abiotic variable that modulates both water chemistry and aquatic life in rivers and streams. For this reason, numerous water temperature models have been developed in recent years. In this paper, a k‐nearest neighbour model (KNN) is proposed and validated to simulate and eventually produce a one‐day forecast of mean water temperature on the Moisie River, a watercourse with an important salmon population in eastern Canada. Numerous KNN model configurations were compared by selecting different attributes and testing different weight combinations for neighbours. It was found that the best model uses attributes that include water temperature from the two previous days and an indicator of seasonality (day of the year) to select nearest neighbours. Three neighbours were used to calculate the estimated temperature, and the weighting combination that yielded the best results was an equal weight on all three nearest neighbours. This nonparametric model provided lower Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE = 1·57 °C), Higher Nash coefficient (NTD = 0·93) and lower Relative Bias (RB = ? 1·5%) than a nonlinear regression model (RMSE = 2·45 °C, NTD = 0·83, RB = ? 3%). The k‐nearest neighbour model appears to be a promising tool to simulate of forecast water temperature where long time series are available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resolution of MRS applied to the characterization of hard-rock aquifers

The performance of the Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS) method applied to the investigation of heterogeneous hard-rock aquifers was studied. It was shown using both numerical modeling and field measurements that MRS could be applied to the investigation of the weathered part of hard-rock aquifers when the product of the free water content multiplied by the thickness of the aquifer is >0.2 (for example, 10-m-thick layer with a 2% water content). Using a currently available one-dimensional MRS system, the method allows the characterization of two-dimensional subsurface structures with acceptable accuracy when the size of the subsurface anomaly is equal to or greater than the MRS loop. However, the fractured part of hard-rock aquifers characterized by low effective porosity (<0.5%) cannot be resolved using currently available MRS equipment. It was found that shallow water in the weathered part of the aquifer may screen MRS signals from deeper water-saturated layers, thus further reducing the possibility of investigating deeper fractured aquifers. A field study using the NUMIS(plus) MRS system developed by IRIS Instruments was carried out on an experimental watershed in southern India. A heterogeneous unconfined aquifer in a gneissic formation was successfully localized, and MRS results were confirmed by drilling shortly after the geophysical study. The top of the aquifer revealed by MRS was found to be in a good agreement with observed static water level measurements in boreholes.     

Multiwavelength study of M33's giant H ii regions NGC 588 and NGC 592

We present a detailed multiwavelength photometric study of giant H  ii regions NGC 592 and NGC 588 in the nearby small spiral galaxy M33. We use data taken with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on board the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ). We detect several massive stars in both ionizing clusters. Six Wolf–Rayet (WR) stars are known to exist within those regions and we are able to constrain their physical properties by comparing their photometry to the latest grid of model atmospheres for WR stars of the nitrogen sequence (WN subclass). We estimate the age and mass of both regions by fitting our photometry to models of integrated stellar populations.     

Dramatic decrease of pelagic carbonate production by nannoplankton across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE)

In this account we present estimates of nannofossil fluxes in four sections and one borehole all belonging to the Early Jurassic western Tethys. This study aims to map the distribution of pelagic carbonate production across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE), and to understand which environmental parameters did control such production. Our results indicate important changes in carbonate production by nannoplankton occurring within the western Tethys and its variations through time. Nannofossil fluxes (specimens per m² per year) are extremely low during the T-OAE in all the studied settings. Higher fluxes are encountered in the westernmost part of the Tethys Ocean before the T-OAE, whilst pelagic carbonate production shifted towards the northern margin of the Tethys after the recovery from anoxic conditions. The dramatic decrease in nannoplankton production during the T-OAE has been interpreted in previous works as a biocalcification crisis related to high pCO₂ in the atmosphere/hydrosphere system. Although a high pCO₂ may have lowered the carbonate saturation state of Early Jurassic oceans and finally hampered biocalcification, we speculate that the most important effects of CO₂ increase were indirect, and affected pelagic producers via changes on climate and sea-level. Namely, it seems that precipitation/evaporation budgets and continental runoff that controlled nutrient levels and salinity in surface oceanic waters were important factors for pelagic biocalcifiers.     

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate

The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.0.1 (BCC_AGCM2.0.1) is described and its performance in simulating the present-day climate is assessed. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 originates from the community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The dynamics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is, however, substantially different from the Eulerian spectral formulation of the dynamical equations in CAM3, and several new physical parameterizations have replaced the corresponding original ones. The major modification of the model physics in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 includes a new convection scheme, a dry adiabatic adjustment scheme in which potential temperature is conserved, a modified scheme to calculate the sensible heat and moisture fluxes over the open ocean which takes into account the effect of ocean waves on the latent and sensible heat fluxes, and an empirical equation to compute the snow cover fraction. Specially, the new convection scheme in BCC_AGCM2.0.1, which is generated from the Zhang and McFarlane’s scheme but modified, is tested to have significant improvement in tropical maximum but also the subtropical minimum precipitation, and the modified scheme for turbulent fluxes are validated using EPIC2001 in situ observations and show a large improvement than its original scheme in CAM3. BCC_AGCM2.0.1 is forced by observed monthly varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations during 1949–2000. The model climatology is compiled for the period 1971–2000 and compared with the ERA-40 reanalysis products. The model performance is evaluated in terms of energy budgets, precipitation, sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, and atmospheric circulation, as well as their seasonal variations. Results show that BCC_AGCM2.0.1 reproduces fairly well the present-day climate. The combined effect of the new dynamical core and the updated physical parameterizations in BCC_AGCM2.0.1 leads to an overall improvement, compared to the original CAM3.     

A multi-model ensemble approach for assessment of climate change impact on surface winds in France

Statistical downscaling of 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) is presented to assess potential changes of the 10 m wind speeds in France. First, a statistical downscaling method is introduced to estimate daily mean 10 m wind speed at specific sites using general circulation model output. Daily 850 hPa wind field has been selected as the large scale circulation predictor. The method is based on a classification of the daily wind fields into a few synoptic weather types and multiple linear regressions. Years are divided into an extended winter season from October to March and an extended summer season from April to September, and the procedure is conducted separately for each season. ERA40 reanalysis and observed station data have been used to build and validate the downscaling algorithm over France for the period 1974–2002. The method is then applied to 14 AOGCMs of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Three time periods are focused on: a historical period (1971–2000) from the climate of the twentieth century experiment and two climate projection periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from the IPCC SRES A1B experiment. Evolution of the 10 m wind speed in France and associated uncertainties are discussed. Significant changes are depicted, in particular a decrease of the wind speed in the Mediterranean area. Sources of those changes are investigated by quantifying the effects of changes in the weather type occurrences, and modifications of the distribution of the days within the weather types.     

Along-strike variations of P–T conditions in accretionary wedges and syn-orogenic extension,the HP–LT Phyllite–Quartzite Nappe in Crete and the Peloponnese

Syn-orogenic detachments in accretionary wedges make the exhumation of high-pressure and low-temperature metamorphic rocks possible with little erosion. The velocity of exhumation within the subduction channel or the accretionary complex, and thus the shape of P–T paths, depend upon the kinematic boundary conditions. A component of slab retreat tends to open the channel and facilitates the exhumation. We document the effect of slab retreat on the shape of P–T paths using the example of the Phyllite–Quartzite Nappe that has been exhumed below the Cretan syn-orogenic detachment during the Miocene in Crete and the Peloponnese. Data show a clear tendency toward colder conditions at peak pressure and during exhumation where the intensity of slab retreat is larger. This spatial evolution of P–T gradient is accompanied with an evolution from a partly coaxial regime below the Peloponnese section of the detachment toward a clearly non-coaxial regime in Crete.