Statistical forecast of the marine surge

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...     

Onset of magmatic accretion within a magma-poor rifted margin: a case study from the Platta ocean-continent transition, eastern Switzerland

Exhumation of subcontinental mantle rocks and its exposure at the seafloor is known from different magma-poor passive continental margins. However, the transition from largely amagmatic passive rifting to seafloor spreading is still poorly documented. In this contribution we use MOR-type gabbroic and basaltic rocks to characterize the magmatism associated with the formation of an ancient ocean-continent transition preserved in the Platta nappe, eastern Switzerland. Gabbros form individual small intrusions into exhumed serpentinized subcontinental mantle rocks. Mineral and bulk-rock chemistry and simple modeling indicate that each gabbro body records different magmatic processes ranging from predominantly fractional crystallization to solidification without fractionation. Mg numbers and Ni contents of equilibrium olivine calculated from basalts and gabbros indicate that few mafic rocks are primary melts but most represent fractionated compositions ranging from T- to N-MORB. Whereas most mafic rocks may be explained by low to moderate degrees of melting of an N-MORB-type mantle, the source of some basalt is enriched in incompatible elements. This compositional variation seems to correlate with the spatial distribution of the mafic rocks within the ocean-continent transition whereby mafic rocks with T-MORB signatures occur close to the continental margin whereas N-MORB signatures are predominantly found oceanwards. As in an opening system time and space are closely linked, the chemical evolution of the mafic rocks along the ocean-continent transitions suggests continuous thinning of the subcontinental mantle and associated uplift of the underlying asthenosphere during the time between the crustal and the lithospheric breakup.     

Silver fluxes to the Gironde Estuary - Eleven years (1999-2009) of monitoring at the watershed scale

Although Ag has long been recognized as highly toxic to aquatic organisms and as an efficient tracer of urban wastewater inputs, there are very few data available on Ag levels and fluxes in rivers and estuaries. Due to anomalously high Ag concentrations in oysters from the estuary mouth, dissolved (Ag_D) and particulate Ag (Ag_P) concentrations in rivers of the Gironde Estuary watershed were studied. Using daily discharge, Suspended particulate matter (SPM) data and monthly measured Ag_D and Ag_P, the respective fluxes were estimated at the three main entries of the Gironde Estuary and at selected key sites at the outlets of different sub-watersheds for multiple years of the past decade. Dissolved and particulate Ag concentrations were 0.5 ng/L (detection limit) to 5.7 ng/L and 0.13-13.9 mg/kg in all rivers, except for the Riou-Mort River (up to 1260 ng/L and 261 mg/kg) that has been heavily polluted by former Zn ore treatment and remaining waste tailings. At all sites Ag transport mainly (73-100%) occurred in the particulate phase, i.e. strongly depended on hydrological parameters. Comparing Th-normalised (i.e. grain size independent) Ag_P levels at the different sites including one remote site showed that the regional background is best described by Ag_P/Th_P = 0.026. The anthropogenic components in Ag_P levels and fluxes ranged from 24% to 90% at all sites, except for the Riou-Mort River (81-99%). Although this former ore treatment site still is an evident Ag source to the Lot-Garonne fluvial-estuarine system, its contribution to Ag fluxes at the main entry of the Gironde Estuary (i.e. 0.33-2.44 t/a at the La Reole site) is <11%. This clearly suggests that other sources such as rock weathering and erosion (0.057-0.817 t/a), urban wastewater inputs (0.042-0.057 t/a) and cloud-seeding (0.030-0.063 t/a) contribute the major parts of the fluvial Ag budget in this watershed. The estimated anthropogenic surface- and population-specific Ag fluxes in the studied system were 1.14-682 g/km²/a and 0.028-6.05 g/person/a, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the Gironde fluvial-estuarine system is contaminated by Ag inputs from various sources, but further work is necessary to (i) identify and quantify the major sources and (ii) produce comparable data for other systems, which would be useful for the evaluation of Ag contamination at a larger scale.     

Foliation fields and 3D cartography in geology: Principles of a method based on potential interpolation

A modeling method that takes into account known points on a geological interface and plane orientation data such as stratification or foliation planes is described and tested. The orientations data do not necessarily belong to one of the interfaces but are assumed to sample the main anisotropy of a geological formation as in current geological situations. The problem is to determine the surfaces which pass through the known points on interfaces and which are compatible with the orientation data. The method is based on the interpolation of a scalar field defined in the space the gradient in which is orthogonal to the orientations, given that some points have the same but unknown scalar value (points of the same interface), and that scalar gradient is known on the other points (foliations). The modeled interfaces are represented as isovalues of the interpolated field. Preliminary two-dimensional tests carried-out with different covariance models demonstrate the validity of the method, which is easily transposable in three dimensions.     

Construction and analysis of higher order finite difference schemes for the 1D wave equation

In this article, we propose to: 1. Establish most of the properties conjectured in [2] about the higher order finite difference approximation of the 1D Laplace operator. 2. Generalize to any order the fourth-order accurate scheme in space and time of Shubin and Bell [20] and Cohen [6]. For this new family of 2m–2m schemes, we establish, via elementary mathematics, various stability and dispersion results that are helpful to compare these schemes to the 2–2m schemes of Anné et al. [2]. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Present-day trends of vertical ground motion along the coast lines

Vertical ground motion (VGM) rates stand as crucial information, either for predicting the impact of the actual sea level rise along low-lying coasts or refining geodynamic problems. Because present day VGM rates have a magnitude smaller than 10 mm/yr, they remain challenging to quantify and often elusive. We focus on the quantification of global-scale VGM rates in order to identify global or regional trends. We computed VGM rates by combining tide gauges records and local satellite altimetry, which yield a new dataset of 634 VGM rates. We further compare this database to previous studies that use geodetic techniques and tide gauges records in order to evaluate the consistency of both our results and previous ones. The magnitudes differ by less than 5 mm/yr, and similar subsidence and uplift general tendencies appear. Even if the asset of our database stands in the greater number of sites, the combination of all studies, each with different pros and cons, yields a hybrid dataset that makes our attempt to extract VGM trends more robust than any other, independent study. Fennoscandia, the West coast of North America, and the eastern coast of Australia are uplifting, while the eastern coast of North America, the British Isles and Western Europe, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Japan, and the western coast of Australia are subsiding. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is expected to provide a major contribution to the present-day signal. Aside from Fennoscandia, observed VGM often depart from the GIA model predictions of Peltier (2004). This either results from an underestimate of the model predictions or from the influence of other processes: indeed, the influence of the geodynamic setting appears in particular along the coasts of western North America or Japan, where the alternation of transform faults and subduction zones makes it possible to assign contrasted behaviours to the local geodynamic context. Local mechanisms like anthropogenic processes or sediment compaction, also contribute to VGM. This remains true for the critical cases of Venice, the Gulf of Mexico, the Ganges delta, and the Maldives, which are particularly exposed to the current sea level rise.     

Field test of the superconducting gravimeter as a hydrologic sensor

We report on a field test of a transportable version of a superconducting gravimeter (SG) intended for groundwater storage monitoring. The test was conducted over a 6-month period at a site adjacent to a well in the recharge zone of the karstic Edwards Aquifer, a major groundwater resource in central Texas. The purpose of the study was to assess requirements for unattended operation of the SG in a field setting and to obtain a gravimetric estimate of aquifer specific yield. The experiment confirmed successful operation of the SG, but water level changes were small (<0.3 m) leading to uncertainty in the estimate of specific yield. Barometric pressure changes were the dominant cause of both water level variations and non-tidal gravity changes. The specific yield estimate (0.26) is larger than most published values and dependent mainly on low frequency variations in residual gravity and water level time series.     

A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.