REFLECTIONS ON WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

"Fortunately, this nation is well endowed with water. We get enough precipitation every year to cover the whole country with water 30 inches deep."     

Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access

Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades.     

Temperature and precipitation responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a hierarchy of datasets with different levels of observational constraints

Climate Dynamics - El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability, affecting climate conditions over large areas of the globe. There are, however, substantial...     

A new velocity field from the analysis of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN)

For studying recent crustal movements and their relation to earthquake occurrence in large scales, the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Cairo, Egypt started in 2006 the establishment of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN). Beginning with 4 stations in 2007, 15 stations were operational at the end of 2011. In addition, a station in Alexandria of the French “Centre d'Études Alexandrines” (CEALX) was added as station to the EPGN. Nowadays, 16 stations are operational and an extension to 20 in the near future is expected. The collected EPGN data of the last 6 years are used in this work to throw light upon the present state of recent crustal movement of the whole of Egypt. Bernese software V. 5.0 was used for processing the collected data according to the IGS standards. In addition, selected IGS, AFREF, and EPN sites are processed for reference frame definition. In this first comprehensive analysis of the permanent network, a complete and consistent evaluation resulted in the first estimates of present day horizontal velocities and coordinate time series.     

PAH transport by sinking particles in the open Mediterranean Sea: a 1 year sediment trap study

One year time series of sinking particles were collected at two depths in the open Mediterranean Sea and analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Average total PAH concentrations were 593+/-284 ng g(-1) at 250 m and 551 +/- 198 ng g(-1) at 2850 m. Total PAH fluxes averaged 73 +/- 58 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 250 m and 53 +/- 39 ng m(-2) d(-1) at 2850 m. Contamination levels and, thus, exposure of marine organisms to PAH are comparable in surface and deep waters. Deep waters appear as a significant, yet overlooked, PAH sink. PAH temporal patterns show noticeable seasonality. This is partly due to varying levels of specific components such as the winter increase of pyrolytic PAH. Downward transport processes and the nature of sinking particles also impact on PAH fluxes, as inferred during periods of increasing productivity. Different phase-associations and interactions with particulate organic carbon for low-MW fossil PAH and high-MW pyrolytic PAH influence their downward transport efficiency.     

Isotopic constraints on time scales and mechanisms of slab material transport in the mantle wedge: evidence from the Simcoe mantle xenoliths, Washington, USA

Spinel harzburgite and websterite mantle xenoliths from Simcoe volcano in southern Washington represent fragments of mantle lithosphere from the back-arc side of the Cascade arc front. Previous studies have shown that metasomatism by either silica-rich fluids or hydrous melts crystallized phlogopite, imparted high oxygen fugacities (0.3 to 1.4 log units above QFM), and more radiogenic Os isotopic compositions on these peridotites. These features are consistent with part or all of the metasomatic agent being derived from the Juan de Fuca slab. New Re–Os, Sm–Nd, Sr, and U–Th–Pb isotopic data shed further light on the origin and composition of the metasomatic agent. The clinopyroxenes from the xenoliths have correlated Pb isotopic compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.63–19.55, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.56–15.63, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.22–38.87). The most radiogenic Pb isotopic compositions extend beyond the most radiogenic Pb isotopic compositions for the Cascade arc lavas and display a shallower trend. Mixtures between Juan de Fuca basalts and pelagic or terrigenous sediments would result in Pb isotopic compositions that are not radiogenic enough in ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb at the high ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb end of this array. Therefore, models for rapid transfer of components from the slab to the mantle lithosphere are not viable in this case. Instead, a multi-stage model is preferred. In the first stage, the slab component is transferred via fluid or melt into, and reacts with the hanging wall mantle. This results in a residual slab depleted in Pb relative to U and Th, and consequent high U/Pb and Th/Pb. Additional dehydration or melting of the slab imparts this chemical signature to the peridotite in the hanging wall. In the second stage, the hybridized hanging wall peridotite evolves for tens of million years until corner flow drags it down to deeper levels in the mantle wedge where melting occurs in response to higher temperatures. In the third stage, this melt migrates upward where it metasomatizes the mantle lithosphere represented by the Simcoe xenoliths. Trace element compositions of the clinopyroxenes, and the presence of high alkali glasses in the xenoliths, are consistent with the metasomatic agent derived from the hybridized hanging wall being alkali-rich, and possibly similar to potassic-rich lavas found in arc and back-arc settings. These data therefore demonstrate the importance of the hybridized hanging wall mantle above slabs as a source for melts which can be metasomatic agents in the upper mantle, and as a site for storage of material derived from the slab for periods of at least tens of million years.     

Source contributions to Devonian granite magmatism near the Laurentian border, New Hampshire and Western Maine, USA

Radiogenic isotope data (initial Nd, Pb) and elemental concentrations for the Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex, a suite of mainly granitic intrusions in New Hampshire and western Maine, are used to evaluate petrogenesis and crustal variations across a mid-Paleozoic suture zone. The complex comprises an areally subordinate monzodiorite suite [377±2 Ma; ε_Nd (at 370 Ma)=−2.7 to −0.7; initial ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.56–15.58] and an areally dominant granite [370±2 Ma; ε_Nd (at 370 Ma)=−7.0 to −0.6; initial ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.55–15.63]. The granite contains meter-scale enclaves of monzodiorite, petrographically similar to but older than that of the rest of the complex [389±2 Ma; ε_Nd (at 370 Ma)=−2.6 to +0.3; initial ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb 15.58, with one exception]. Other granite complexes in western Maine and New Hampshire are 30 Ma older than the Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex granite, but possess similar isotopic signatures.

Derivation of the monzodioritic rocks of the Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex most likely occurred by melting of Bronson Hill belt crust of mafic to intermediate composition. The Mooselookmeguntic igneous complex granites show limited correlation of isotopic variations with elemental concentrations, precluding any significant presence of mafic source components. Given overlap of initial Nd and Pb isotopic compositions with data for Central Maine belt metasedimentary rocks, the isotopic heterogeneity of the granites may have been produced by melting of rocks in this crustal package or through a mixture of metasedimentary rocks with magmas derived from Bronson Hill belt crust.

New data from other granites in western Maine include Pb isotope data for the Phillips pluton, which permit a previous interpretation that leucogranites were derived from melting heterogeneous metasedimentary rocks of the Central Maine belt, but suggest that granodiorites were extracted from sources more similar to Bronson Hill belt crust. Data for the Redington pluton are best satisfied by generation from sources in either the Bronson Hill belt or Laurentian basement. Based on these data, we infer that Bronson Hill belt crust was more extensive beneath the Central Maine belt than previously recognized and that mafic melts from the mantle were not important to genesis of Devonian granite magma.     

洞穴碳酸盐230Th-234U-238U测年初始钍校正的等时线研究

初始钍的校正是不纯沉积碳酸盐230Th 234U 238U测年的一个重要方面，洞穴石笋初始Th校正通常采用230Th/232Th的原子比值为（4.4±2.2）×10-6。多年来4种不同的等时线方法应用到不纯碳酸盐测年初始Th的校正中，其中全样品的等时线方法是目前公认的较为完善的一种方法。通过测定云南同一石笋2个不同层位的9个样品的U、Th同位素组成,并进行等时线分析，结果表明2层样品初始钍230Th/232Th原子比值分别为（3.5±2.8）×10-6和（10.6±2.2）×10-6，这说明即使在同一地区，由于其混入Th来源的复杂性，230Th/232Th初始比值在同一样品不同层位仍可能有较大的差异，因此不能够完全采用单一层位等时线获得的初始值对整个样品进行校正。考虑到在实验测量过程中，232Th含量的过高对于230Th的准确测定也有很大的影响，应尽量选择纯净石笋样品进行测年研究，在样品的选择和前处理过程中就减少初始钍的影响，这对获得高精度的测年结果有着重要的意义。     

Comparison of stress-dependent geophysical,hydraulic and mechanical properties of synthetic and natural sandstones for reservoir characterization and monitoring studies

Synthetic rock samples can offer advantages over natural rock samples when used for laboratory rock physical properties studies, provided their success as natural analogues is well understood. The ability of synthetic rocks to mimic the natural stress dependency of elastic wave, electrical and fluid transport properties is of primary interest. Hence, we compare a consistent set of laboratory multi-physics measurements obtained on four quartz sandstone samples (porosity range 20–25%) comprising two synthetic and two natural (Berea and Corvio) samples, the latter used extensively as standards in rock physics research. We measured simultaneously ultrasonic (P- and S-wave) velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, permeability and axial and radial strains over a wide range of differential pressure (confining stress 15–50 MPa; pore pressure 5–10 MPa) on the four brine saturated samples. Despite some obvious physical discrepancies caused by the synthetic manufacturing process, such as silica cementation and anisotropy, the results show only small differences in stress dependency between the synthetic and natural sandstones for all measured parameters. Stress dependency analysis of the dry samples using an isotropic effective medium model of spheroidal pores and penny-shaped cracks, together with a granular cohesion model, provide evidence of crack closure mechanisms in the natural sandstones, seen to a much lesser extent in the synthetic sandstones. The smaller grain size, greater cement content, and cementation under oedometric conditions particularly affect the fluid transport properties of the synthetic sandstones, resulting in lower permeability and higher electrical resistivity for a similar porosity. The effective stress coefficients, determined for each parameter, are in agreement with data reported in the literature. Our results for the particular synthetic materials that were tested suggest that synthetic sandstones can serve as good proxies for natural sandstones for studies of elastic and mechanical properties, but should be used with care for transport properties studies.