A water balance model to estimate climate change impact on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year^–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year^–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year^–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.     

Seasonal variations of zinc in a eutrophic lake

Depth profiles of dissolved zinc were measured monthly over one year in Lake Greifen, a eutrophic lake. The concentrations are in the range 10–40 nM and show systematic variations over time and depth. Due to the increased binding to particles and subsequent settling, concentrations of zinc in the epilimnion decrease during summer stagnation. Clear correlations between Zn and major nutrients (P, Si) are, however, not observed in the water column. No accumulation of Zn occurs in the anoxic hypolimnion. The Zn sedimentation is related to the sedimentation of algae and of manganese oxide. A mass-balance calculation shows that 87% of the Zn input is retained in the sediments of Lake Greifen.     

Mixing behavior of dissolved organic carbon and its potential biological significance in the Pawcatuck River Estuary

The distributions of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), phytoplankton biomass (as measured by in vivo fluorescence), total nitrogen and phosphorus, and light extinction were observed on 10 cruises during 1989 and 1990 in the Pawcatuck River estuary located in southern Rhode Island. In the lower estuary, the distance of peak phytoplankton biomass from the head of the estuary was positively correlated with river discharge while the magnitude of the peak increased with decreasing discharge. High light-extinction appeared to limit the accumulation of biomass in the upper estuary. Variability in light extinction was largely (50%) explained by variation in the concentration of DOC. Salinity versus constituent plots suggested that DOC behaved nonconservatively in the estuary. These observational data indicate that the mixing behavior of DOC in the estuary influences light extinction and thus may limit accumulation of phytoplankton biomass in the upper estuary. This interpretation of observational data was supported by experimental work that demonstrated the significant contribution of DOC to light extinction, and by measurements, of phytoplankton productivity that showed greater light limitation in the upper estuary.     

Continuous versus discontinuous albedo representations in a simple diffusive climate model

A one-dimensional annually and zonally averaged energy-balance model, with diffusive meridional heat transport and including icealbedo feedback, is considered. This type of model is found to be very sensitive to the form of albedo used. The solutions for a discontinuous step-function albedo are compared to those for a more realistic smoothly varying albedo. The smooth albedo gives a closer fit to present conditions, but the discontinuous form gives a better representation of climates in earlier epochs.     

A mathematical representation of the incident solar energy as a function of latitude and time

A simple mathematical representation of the incoming solar radiation as a function of latitude and time is introduced. The expression approximates the total zonally and daily averaged solar energy incident on the earth's surface before any is absorbed. It includes dependence on both the obliquity and the precession of the equinoxes and, within its accuracy limits, the representation is convenient for use in long-term climate modelling.     

Spectrographic observations of omicron andromedae from 1967 to 1976

The results of qualitative analysis and radial velocity (RV) determinations from 1967 to 1976 are given. These analyses show sometimes the presence of a thin variable shell also in the years 1967–1974, before the appearance of the envelope. Intensity variations of the metallic lines seem to indicate that in the same period changes of temperature and/or electron pressure may occur in the photospheric layers. In the period 1975–76, the considerable range ofRV and the variability of the shell features show that the shell is rather active. Some conspicuousRV variations seem to be correlated to brightness changes. TheRV do not confirm the periods suggested by the photometric observations. A periodogram analysis givesRV curves with a poor evidence of periodicity. However, the periodP=1^d.5845 obtained from this analysis, close to that of Schmidt, seems to confirm Schmidt's hypothesis of a contact binary system. The periodogram analysis of theRV during the years 1900–1976 and some physical arguments, suggest a probable photospheric activity or an invisible companion with the observed shell period of 30 yr. The duplicity, suggested by Kí and Harmanec (1975) for all the Be stars, could be yet questioned foro And.Thesis for the degree of Applied Physics.