The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system

Four different conceptual models based on alternative geological interpretations were formulated for a shallow 600 km² aquifer system in Denmark comprising Quaternary deposits. Each of the four models was calibrated against groundwater heads and discharge measurements through inverse modeling. Subsequently, the transport capabilities of the four models were compared to 32 concentration measurements of environmental tracers (tritium ³H, helium-3 ³He, chlorofluorocarbons CFC11, CFC12 and CFC113). The flow simulations showed only minor differences in spatial head distribution associated with alternative conceptualizations despite the complexity of the aquifer system and the significant differences in geological interpretations. The models, however, showed major differences in predictions of the age of the groundwater and environmental tracer concentrations, differences that are seen as an effect of model structure uncertainty, because no additional calibrations to these data were performed. A single conceptualization may be adequate in characterizing the natural behavior of a field system after calibration, because the calibration procedure is able to compensate for errors in the data or in the conceptual model through biased parameter values. However, once extrapolation beyond the calibration base is attempted, different conceptual model formulations result in significantly different results. Consequently, it is crucial to take model conceptual uncertainty into account when making predictions beyond the calibration base.     

Effects of groundwater extraction from crystalline hard rock on water chemistry in an acid forested catchment at Gårdsjön,Sweden

Atmospheric deposition of S in Sweden has decreased by some 80% over the last 15 a, resulting in a general reduction of SO₄ concentrations in ground and surface water. This project, however, shows that artificial hydrological alteration in an acid wetland can reverse this trend and increase acidity and SO₄ concentrations. The experiment involved the monitoring of two catchments in relatively virgin conditions. In one of the catchments, an experiment with intensive groundwater extraction from the bedrock was carried out. During the experiment, the runoff from the catchment decreased by 50%. Furthermore, the extraction of groundwater resulted in increased seasonal aeration of the centrally located wetland, leading to oxidation of reduced S bound to the soil layers of the wetland. The S changed to solute SO₄, with a subsequent SO₄ surge. Thus, the experiment resulted in an induced acidification of the wetland and runoff waters. The extraction of groundwater significantly increased the recharge of water from the overburden, glacial till and organic soils to groundwater in the bedrock, which in turn reduced the retention time in the bedrock aquifer. These changes resulted in the chemical signature of the groundwater in the bedrock becoming similar to those of the wetland. The findings revealed deterioration in the water quality in the bedrock due to increased concentrations of dissolved organic C and SO₄, as well as a decrease in pH.     

The origin of geochemical diversity of lunar mantle sources inferred from the combined U-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd isotope systematics of mare basalt 10017

The results of our combined U-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd isotope study of mare basalt 10017 contribute to the understanding of the petrogenetic processes involved in the origin of geochemical diversity in lunar mare basalt sources, as well as the U-Pb isotope systematics of the Moon. The Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and ²³⁸U-²⁰⁶Pb isotope systems yield concordant crystallization ages of 3.633 ± 0.057 Ga, 3.678 ± 0.069 Ga, and 3.616 ± 0.098 Ga, respectively. The ²³⁵U-²⁰⁷Pb isochron yields an older, though still concordant, age of 3.80 ± 0.12 Ga. Neither the ²⁰⁶Pb-²⁰⁷Pb system nor U-Pb concordia system yields an age for 10017 that is concordant with the age determined from the Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr, and ²³⁸U-²⁰⁶Pb systems. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 10017 is 0.69941 ± 7 and the initial ε_Nd is +3.2 ± 0.4. Initial Pb isotopic compositions, determined from the U-Pb isochrons, are ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 31 ± 11 and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 34 ± 15. Together, these initial Pb compositions constrain the μ value of the 10017 source to be 70 ± 30, assuming a single-stage Pb growth model. This is considerably lower than μ values typically estimated for mare basalt sources (∼100-600). Regardless, the μ values calculated for the sources of mare basalts, as well as other lunar samples, show a range that is larger than can be explained by fractionation of U from Pb solely by crystallization of silicate phases and ilmenite during magma ocean solidification and formation of lunar mantle sources. The U-Pb isotope systematics may reflect late-stage formation of a sulfide phase, which strongly fractionates Pb from U but has minimal effect on Rb/Sr or Sm/Nd compositions, during crystallization of the lunar magma ocean.     

Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance

The need to mainstream adaptation to climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision-making is increasingly recognised, and several bilateral and multilateral development agencies are starting to take an interest. Over the past years at least six development agencies have screened their project portfolios, generally with two goals in mind: (1) to ascertain the extent to which existing development projects already consider climate risks or address vulnerability to climate variability and change, and (2) to identify opportunities for incorporating climate change explicitly into future projects. As each portfolio screening was conducted independently, the broader lessons emerging from the screenings have not been systematically analysed. In this paper we assess the screening activities to date, focusing on both the results and the methods applied. Based on this assessment we identify opportunities for development agencies to expand their current focus on the links between climate and development. Most agencies already consider climate change as a real but uncertain threat to future development, but they have given less thought to how different development patterns might affect vulnerability to climate change. The screenings undertaken have shown the need to take a comprehensive approach to adaptation and its integration into development planning and sectoral decision-making, and a number of policy initiatives have been taken to promote such integration. We provide some initial guidance as to how portfolio screening can be carried out in a way that would allow agencies to assess systematically the relevance of climate change to their ongoing and planned development projects.     

Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe

Probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in a suite of ten RCMs are investigated for (1) biases compared to observations in the present day climate and (2) climate change signals compared to the simulated present day climate. The simulated inter-model differences and climate changes are also compared to the observed natural variability as reflected in some very long instrumental records. All models have been forced with driving conditions from the same global model and run for both a control period and a future scenario period following the A2 emission scenario from IPCC. We find that the bias in the fifth percentile of daily minimum temperatures in winter and at the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature during summer is smaller than 3 (±5°C) when averaged over most (all) European sub-regions. The simulated changes in extreme temperatures both in summer and winter are larger than changes in the median for large areas. Differences between models are larger for the extremes than for mean temperatures. A comparison with historical data shows that the spread in model predicted changes in extreme temperatures is larger than the natural variability during the last centuries.     

Extraction of spatio‐temporal data about historical events from text documents

Often, we are faced with questions regarding past events and the answers are hidden in the historical text archives. The growing developments in geographic information retrieval and temporal information retrieval techniques have given new ways to explore digital text archives for spatio‐temporal data. The question is how to retrieve the answers from the text documents. This work contributes to a better understanding of spatio‐temporal information extraction from text documents. Natural language processing techniques were used to develop an information extraction approach using the GATE language processing software. The developed framework uses gazetteer matching, spatio‐temporal relationship extraction and pattern‐based rules to recognize and annotate elements in historical text documents. The extracted spatio‐temporal data is used as input for GIS studies on the time–geography context of the German–Herero resistance war of 1904 in Namibia. Related issues when analyzing the historical data in current GIS are discussed. Particularly problematic are movement data in small scale with poor temporal density and trajectories that are short or connect very distant locations.     

Comparison of versioning methods to improve the information flow in the planning and building processes

Version management is a prerequisite for digital information flow between phases in the planning and building processes. Information evolves over time and many parties retrieve information from the various phases. The aim of this article is to evaluate versioning methods, focusing on geodata buildings in the 3D cadastre process. The main attention in the evaluation is on the comprehensive ISO standard Product Lifecycle Support (PLCS). PLCS is evaluated against two simpler versioning methods, the versioning in CityGML 3.0 and a modified Git versioning method implemented in CityJSON. CityGML 3.0 fulfils all but one requirement and PLCS meets all. The methods vary in complexity; the Git proposal is a simple solution, easy to implement and maintain, while PLCS includes all functionalities and is complex to implement. There is a trade‐off between number of functionalities and complexity, it is therefore important that the intended purpose determines the choice of versioning method.