The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

具有越流补给的含水煤层渗流模型求解与典型曲线

为了分析水层越流补给对煤层气井早期排水的影响,根据不稳定渗流理论,引入越流系数,建立了考虑层间越流现象的煤层中水的渗流数学模型。通过Laplace变换对模型求解,并利用Stehfest反演得到实空间的解,采用新的参数组合,分别绘制了压力和压力导数双对数曲线图版。从物理渗流机理上分析了层间越流对曲线形态的影响,随着越流系数的增大,径向流结束的时间越早;同时提出了利用典型图版拟合确定储层渗透率、表皮系数以及越流系数的方法。典型图版有助于定量评价越流的强弱,对煤层气井后续排采制度的调整具有指导意义。     

Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region

The impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation was studied for rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins located in the western Himalayan region. Hydrological processes were simulated under current climatic conditions using a conceptual hydrological model, which accounts for the rainfall–runoff, evaporation losses, snow and glacier melt. After simulations of daily observed streamflow (R²=0.90) for 6 years, the model was used to study the impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation. Based on the future projected climatic scenarios in the study region, three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2 and T+3 °C) were adopted for quantifying the effect of warmer climate. The comparison of the effect of warmer climate on different types of basins indicated that the increase in evaporation was the maximum for snowfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff. It was found that under a warmer climate, melt was reduced from snowfed basins, but increased from glacierfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. For a complex type of basin, the decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the water availability from the complex basins will be reduced.     

No Higher Criticism of the Bianchi-corrected Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data

Higher Criticism (HC) has been proposed by Donoho & Jin as an effective statistic to detect deviations from Gaussianity. Motivated by the success of the Bianchi VII_h model in addressing many of the anomalies observed in the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ) data (Jaffe et al.), we present calculations in real and in wavelet space of the HC statistic of the Bianchi-corrected WMAP first-year data. At the wavelet scale of 5°, the HC of the WMAP map drops from a value above the 99 per cent confidence level (c.l.) to a value below the 68 per cent CL when corrected by the Bianchi template. An important property of the HC statistic is its ability to locate the pixels that account for the deviation from Gaussianity. The analysis of the uncorrected WMAP data pointed to a cold spot in the Southern hemisphere, centred at   l ∼ 209°, b ∼−57°  . The HC of the Bianchi-corrected map indicates that this spot remains prominent, albeit at a level completely consistent with Gaussian statistics. Consequently, it is debatable how much emphasis should be placed on this residual feature, but we consider the effect of modestly increasing the scaling of the template. A factor of only 1.2 renders the spot indistinguishable from the background level, with no noticeable impact on the results published in Jaffe et al. for the low- l anomalies, large-scale power asymmetry or wavelet kurtosis. A trivial interpretation would be that the Bianchi template may require a small enhancement of power on scales corresponding to the wavelet scale of 5°.     

Explosive carbon-burning nucleosynthesis

Results are presented which show the final abundances of the major nuclei produced in explosive, but partial, carbon-burning taking place in a rapidly expanding medium. the effects of energy deposition due to burning and expansive cooling are taken into account explicity. The results are compatible with those obtained by other authors but show the sensitivity of the final abundances to the assumed initial conditions. A conjecture is made as to the physical site of the burning.Of the National Bureau of Standards and University of Colorado.     

Three recent larger earthquakes offshore Norway

Three earthquakes of magnitude around 5 occurred offshore western Norway on 5th February, 1986, on 8th August, 1988, and on 23rd January, 1989. These earthquakes, representing the highest seismic activity level in this area for at least 30 years, were all felt by people over most of southern and central Norway. Focal-mechanism solutions for these earthquakes indicate thrust faulting along N-S to NNE-SSW striking fault planes, in response to NW-SE compressional stress, most probably of plate tectonic origin.
A number of high-quality digital recordings of the ground motions at various distances from these and other recent earthquakes in Norway have shown that source spectral as well as wave attenuation characteristics in this area are reasonably consistent with what has been derived from other intraplate areas.     

The coronal transient of 16 June 1972

On 16 June 1972, the Naval Research Laboratory's coronagraph aboard OSO-7 tracked a huge coronal cloud moving outward from the Sun. Concurrent observations of the inner corona made by the High Altitude Observatory at Mauna Loa showed bifurcation of the underlying coronal structure. Together, these observations can be interpreted as evidence for the stretching of the closed fields into a magnetic bottle, extending to at least eight radii from the center of the Sun.     

The relationship betweenG andh in a closed Universe

In a closed expanding-contracting Universe, matter will be subject to an inward acceleration large enough to prevent perpetual expansion. A closed Universe must also perform a simple harmonic motion, which might consist either of one single cycle or of an infinite series of oscillations about a central point. It is the purpose of this study to find the rate ofa ₀, the cosmic acceleration, from which the gravitational constantG can be determined. It will be shown from Ampère's equation and Planck's radiation law that it is possible to derivea ₀=7.623×10^–12 ms^–2, a value which also conforms with the uncertainty principle. The relationship betweena ₀ and electromagnetic radiation is based on the concept that charges (such as electrons) must emit radiation while accelerating. The rate ofa ₀ yields a universal gravitational constant ofG=6.645×10^–11 N m² kg^–2.