Deterministic seismic scenario for Gujarat region, India

In this study, the modified stochastic method based on dynamic corner frequency has been used for the simulation of strong ground motions in Gujarat region. The earthquake-generating faults have been identified in the Gujarat region on the basis of past seismicity of the region. In all, 19 probable faults have been identified with 12 in Kachchh region, 5 in Saurashtra and 2 in Mainland Gujarat region. The maximum magnitude has been assigned to each fault based on the regional tectonic environment and past seismicity. The strong ground motions from these identified sources have been estimated at numerous points distributed all over Gujarat region on a grid. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values have been extracted from the accelerograms and contoured. The spatial distribution of maximum of 19 PGA values at every grid point have been described and discussed. The ground motions at the surface of 32 important cities of the Gujarat have been estimated by incorporating the site amplification functions. The site amplification functions are obtained using the local earthquake data. These cities are located on various types of geological formations. We note that the site amplification functions have modified the character of the records and amplified the acceleration values at almost all the sites. The Kachchh region can expect surface accelerations between 400 and 800 cm/s², Saurashtra between 100 and 200 cm/s² and Mainland less than 50 cm/s² from a future large earthquake. The obtained results are useful for disaster mitigation measures, strengthening the existing built environment and design of structures in the region.     

Trend and spatial distribution of rainfall & rainy days over Andaman & Nicobar Islands

The present study examines the characteristics and climatological features of daily rainfall data over Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Analysis of rainfall data reveals a large monthly deviation over the northern latitudes as compare to southern latitudes of Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Also, it is found that rainfall increases from north to south latitudes in all the seasons except monsoon, where a reverse pattern exists. In trend analysis, a statistically significant decreasing trend (confidence level >95?%) is observed for yearly rainfall and rainy days over the region. Analysis of daily rainfall intensity for each year shows increasing trend for frequency of rather heavy rain (35.6?C64.4?mm) and significant decreasing trend for frequencies of light rain (2.5?C7.5?mm), and very heavy rain (>124.5?mm) over the region. Many times, very heavy rain events are associated with cyclonic disturbances affecting Andaman & Nicobar Islands region. The analysis of cyclonic disturbances over the region reveals a stronger and more significant decreasing trend. So, one of the causes for decreasing trend in very heavy rain over Andaman & Nicobar Islands may be due to significant decreasing frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting this region.     

Crustal thickness and Poisson’s ratio variations across the northwest Himalaya and eastern Ladakh

Crustal thickness and Poisson’s ratios are estimated across the northwest (NW) Himalaya and eastern Ladakh applying H-k stacking method on receiver functions of teleseismic earthquakes recorded at 16 broadband seismological stations. The results show significant lateral variation of crustal thickness from the Lesser and Higher Himalaya (～50 km thick) to Ladakh (～80 km thick) through the Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone (ITSZ). The Indian Moho is continuously traceable across the ITSZ which is consistent with the underthrusting of the Indian plate beyond the surface collision boundary. The estimated Poisson’s ratios in the Lesser and Higher Himalaya are low (0.249–0.253), suggesting felsic composition of the crust. The Poisson’s ratio is intermediate in the Tethyan Himalaya (0.269–0.273) and high beneath Ladakh (0.280–0.303), indicating the effect of aqueous fluid/partial melt present in the crust.     

SBAS-derived TEC maps: a new tool to forecast the spatial maps of maximum probable scintillation index over India

With the increase in the use of satellite-based navigation services, the forecasting of L band scintillation has turned out to be of paramount importance as it affects their accuracy and availability. Forecasting the time of occurrence or non-occurrence, strength and probable location of scintillation enables the service providers and users to take appropriate action to mitigate the effects and optimize the services. We use the recently developed method to retrieve TEC from the ionospheric correction data transmitted by the Indian satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS)–GAGAN. By making use of the established linear relation between the dusk time TEC and the maximum probable scintillation intensity (S_4max), scintillation forecast maps have been generated as early as 1930 LT. The superposition of actual S₄ measurements, obtained from the GAGAN network of receivers, on the forecasted S_4max map shows that the actual measurements are less than the predicted S_4max except on very few occasions. The potential of the simple technique to predict the 2 D maps of maximum probable scintillation index for the whole night has been demonstrated which with more refinements could evolve into a viable forecast or forewarning system.     

Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim,India

Estimation of evapotranspiration(ET) for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle.The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation(HARG) with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization(FAO)Penman Monteith(PM) method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim,India.The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET_0 by 0.35 mm day~(-1) whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model.In addition,this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site.Nonparametric Mann-Kendall(MK) test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trendof eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration(ET_0) for the period of 1985-2009.Trend of ET_0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation.The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing(p ≤ 0.05) trend represented by higher Z-values,through MK test,for net radiation(Rn),maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin),especially in the first months of the year.Whereas,significant(0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05) decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit(VPD)and precipitation(P) is observed throughout the year.Declining trend in sunshine duration,VPD and ET_0 is found in spring(March- May) and monsoon(June –November) season.The result displays significant(0.01≤ p ≤ 0.05) decreasing ET_0 trend between(June- December) except in July,exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station.Overall,the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET_0 and other climaticvariables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices,in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.     

Geochemistry and petrogenesis of Proterozoic granitic rocks from northern margin of the Chotanagpur Gneissic Complex (CGC)

This study presents the geochemical characteristics of granitic rocks located on the northern margin of Chotanagpur Gneissic Complex (CGC), exposed in parts of Gaya district, Bihar and discusses the possible petrogenetic process and source characteristics. These granites are associated with Barabar Anorthosite Complex and Neo-proterozoic Munger–Rajgir group of rocks. The granitic litho-units identified in the field are grey, pink and porphyritic granites. On the basis of geochemical and petrographic characteristics, the grey and pink granites were grouped together as GPG while the porphyritic granites were named as PG. Both GPG and PG are enriched in SiO₂, K₂O, Na₂O, REE (except Eu), Rb, Ba, HFSE (Nb, Y, Zr), depleted in MgO, CaO, Sr and are characterised by high Fe* values, Ga/Al ratios and high Zr saturation temperatures (GPG_avg～ 861 ^°C and PG_avg～ 835 ^°C). The REE patterns for GPG are moderately fractionated with an average (La/Yb)_N～ 4.55 and Eu/Eu* ～ 0.58, than PG which are strongly fractionated with an average (La/Yb)_N～ 31.86 and Eu/Eu* ～ 0.75. These features indicate that the granites have an A-type character. On the basis of geochemical data, we conclude that the granites are probably derived from a predominant crustal source with variable mantle involvement in a post-collisional setting.     

Numerical simulation of present day tectonic stress across the Indian subcontinent

International Journal of Earth Sciences - In situ measurements of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) in the Indian subcontinent are limited and do not present regional trends of intraplate stress...     

Estimation of winter wheat crop growth parameters using time series Sentinel-1A SAR data

In the present study, Sentinel-1A Synthetic Aperture Radar analysis of time series data at C-band was carried out to estimate the winter wheat crop growth parameters. Five different date images were acquired during January 2015–April 2015 at different growth stages from tillering to ripening in Varanasi district, India. The winter wheat crop parameters, i.e. leaf area index, vegetation water content (VWC), fresh biomass (FB), dry biomass (DB) and plant height (PH) were estimated using random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network regression (ANNR) and linear regression (LR) algorithms. The Ground Range Detected products of Interferometric Wide (IW) Swath were used at VV polarization. The three different subplots of 1 m² area were taken for the measurement of crop parameters at every growth stage. In total, 73 samples were taken as the training data-sets and 39 samples were taken as testing data-sets. The highest sensitivity (adj. R^2?=?0.95579) of backscattering with VWC was found using RFR algorithm, whereas the lowest sensitivity (adj. R^2?=?0.66201) was found for the PH using LR algorithm. Overall results indicate more accurate estimation of winter wheat parameters by the RFR algorithm followed by SVR, ANNR and LR algorithms.     

Remote Sensing-Based Yield Forecasting for Sugarcane (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Saccharum officinarum</Emphasis> L.) Crop in India

Early yield assessment at local, regional and national scales is a major requirement for various users such as agriculture planners, policy makers, crop insurance companies and researchers. This current study explored a remote sensing-based approach of predicting sugarcane yield, at district level, using Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), under the FASAL programme of the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare. 13-years’ historical database (2003–2015) of NDVI was used to derive the VCI. NDVI products (MOD-13A2) of MODIS instrument on board Terra satellite at 16-day interval from first fortnight of June to second fortnight of October (peak growing period) were used to calculate the VCI. Stepwise regression technique was used to develop empirical models between VCI and historical yield of sugarcane over 52 major sugarcane-growing districts in five states of India. For all the districts, the empirical models were found to be statistically significant. A large number of statistical parameters were computed to evaluate the performance of VCI-based models in predicting district-level sugarcane yield. Though there was variation in model performance in different states, overall, the study showed the usefulness of VCI, which can be used as an input for operational sugarcane yield forecasting.     

An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake

A regional time and magnitude predictable model has been applied to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes in the vicinity of 8 October 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake (25°–40°N and 65°–85°E), which includes India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mangolia and Tien-Shan. This region has been divided into 17 seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismotectonics and geomorphological criteria. A complete earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental) of magnitude Ms ≥ 5.5 during the period 1853–2005 has been used in the analysis. According to this model, the magnitude of preceding earthquake governs the time of occurrence and magnitude of future mainshock in the sequence. The interevent time between successive mainshocks with magnitude equal to or greater than a minimum magnitude threshold were considered and used for long-term earthquake prediction in each of seismogenic sources. The interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks have been used to determine the following predictive relations: logT _t = 0.05 M _min + 0.09 M _p − 0.01 log M ₀ + 01.14; and M _f = 0.21 M _min − 0.01 M _p + 0.03 log M ₀ + 7.21 where, T _t is the interevent time of successive mainshocks, M _min is minimum magnitude threshold considered, M _p is magnitude of preceding mainshock, M _f is magnitude of following mainshock and M ₀ is the seismic moment released per year in each seismogenic source. It was found that the magnitude of following mainshock (M _f) does not depend on the interevent time (T _t), which indicates the ability to predict the time of occurrence of future mainshock. A negative correlation between magnitude of following mainshock (M _f) and preceding mainshock (M _p) indicates that the larger earthquake is followed by smaller one and vice versa. The above equations have been used for the seismic hazard assessment in the considered region. Based on the model applicability in the studied region and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of last mainshock in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities (PC) for the occurrence of next shallow large mainshocks (Ms ≥ 6.5), during next 20 years as well as the expected magnitudes have been estimated.