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Ground motion observations and simulation for local earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (M_D∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (M_w4.2 and M_w5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).     

Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study,seasonal cycle,precipitation

Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by stationary waves, leading to less synoptic-scale latent heat release and hence less precipitation also. In terms of seasonality, the stormy season is shifted later in the year by a few days to a month depending on the season and the model considered. This shift does not directly reflect on the first-order seasonal cycle of precipitation, which also depends on other mechanisms, especially in summer.     

Study of temperature and precipitation change in upstream mountain area of the Hexi inland river basin since 1960s

All rivers in the Hexi inland region of Gansu Province, China, originate from the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains. They are located in the southern portion of the region and respectively belong to the three large river systems from east to west, the Shiyang, Heihe and Shule river basins. These rivers are supplied by precipitation, snowmelt and ice-melt runoff from the Qilian Mountain area. Therefore, changes of precipitation and temperature in the upstream watersheds of these rivers have an important effect on changes of mountainous runoff and reasonable utilization of water resources in this region. For this reason, the Qilian Mountain area, upstream watersheds and runoff forming areas of these rivers are chosen as the study area. The change characteristics and variation trend of temperature and precipitation in this area under the backdrop of global warming are analyzed based on observational data of relational weather and hydrologic stations in the area. Results show that temperatures in the upriver mountain areas of these three large river basins have been increasing, although the increasing degree is differentially affected by global warming. The rising extent of annual and seasonal temperatures in the upstream mountain area of the Shule river basin located in the western Qilian Mountains, were all largest over the past 50 years. Precipitation in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins located respectively in the western, middle and eastern Qilian Mountains have been presenting an increasing trend to varying degrees as a whole for more than 50 years. This means that climate in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins are becoming increasingly warmer and moister over the past 50 years, which will be very good for the ecological environment and agricultural production in the region.     

Short- and Long-Term Response of Deteriorating Brackish Marshes and Open-Water Ponds to Sediment Enhancement by Thin-Layer Dredge Disposal

Artificial sediment enhancement using a thin layer of dredged material has been suggested as a means to increase elevation and create soil conditions conducive to increased marsh structure and function in deteriorating marshes. Using a chronosequence approach, we examined the effects of sediment enhancement in deteriorating marsh and open-water pond habitats located in six brackish marshes. Sediment enhancement of both marsh and interior pond sites had significant, immediate, and long-lasting effects on physical soil properties and nutrient status with increased bulk density and inorganic nitrogen. Vegetative cover and productivity response were minimal for deteriorating vegetated marshes with the short-term response data showing no significant impact of sediment enhancement and long-term trends indicating decreasing productivity over time. In contrast, trajectory models of vegetative cover and productivity in interior pond sites showed increases over time indicating that, for restoration of interior ponds, sediment enhancement may prove valuable. The use of trajectory models emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to determine restoration success of projects.     

A Modeling Study of the Impacts of Mississippi River Diversion and Sea-Level Rise on Water Quality of a Deltaic Estuary

Freshwater and sediment management in estuaries affects water quality, particularly in deltaic estuaries. Furthermore, climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence also affect estuarine water quality by changing salinity, circulation, stratification, sedimentation, erosion, residence time, and other physical and ecological processes. However, little is known about how the magnitudes and spatial and temporal patterns in estuarine water quality variables will change in response to freshwater and sediment management in the context of future SLR. In this study, we applied the Delft3D model that couples hydrodynamics and water quality processes to examine the spatial and temporal variations of salinity, total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-α concentration in response to small (142 m³ s^?1) and large (7080 m³ s^?1) Mississippi River (MR) diversions under low (0.38 m) and high (1.44 m) relative SLR (RSLR = eustatic SLR + subsidence) scenarios in the Breton Sound Estuary, Louisiana, USA. The hydrodynamics and water quality model were calibrated and validated via field observations at multiple stations across the estuary. Model results indicate that the large MR diversion would significantly affect the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of the studied water quality variables across the entire estuary, whereas the small diversion tends to influence water quality only in small areas near the diversion. RSLR would also play a significant role on the spatial heterogeneity in estuary water quality by acting as an opposite force to river diversions; however, RSLR plays a greater role than the small-scale diversion on the magnitude and spatial pattern of the water quality parameters in this deltaic estuary.     

Persistence of Planetary Waves in the Lower Ionosphere

The transient planetary waves in the atmosphere and ionosphere seem to occur in the form of bursts of a couple of waves with limited persistence. To study persistence of planetary wave events in the lower ionosphere, data from two radio paths from Central Europe are used, Luxembourg – Panská Ves (f = 6.09 MHz, f _eq = 2.1-2.2 MHz) and Deutschlandfunk – Panská Ves (f = 1539 kHz, f _eq = 650-700 kHz). The absorption along the former radio paths is formed very predominantly at altitudes of about 90-100 km, whereas the latter absorption is formed mostly at altitudes of about 85-90 km. The persistence of planetary wave type oscillations is studied in three period bands centred at 5, 10 and 16 days. Waves with period T near 5 days reveal a typical persistence of wave events around 5 cycles. Waves with T = 10 days are less persistent with a typical persistence of 3-4 cycles. The typical persistence of waves T = 16 days is no more than 3 cycles. In terms of number of cycles, the persistence of oscillations evidently decreases with increasing period. On the other hand, in terms of number of days, the persistence seems rather to increase with increasing period.     

Statistical analysis of textural data from complex pyroclastic sequences: implications for fragmentation processes of the Agnano-Monte Spina Tephra (4.1 ka), Phlegraean Fields, southern Italy

The Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4.1 ka) generated pyroclastic deposits with complex internal stratigraphy that reflects variations in eruptive style. To obtain constraints on the fragmentation processes, we analysed grain-size and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) data by means of multivariate statistical techniques of the cluster and factor analysis types. The results allow the identification of end-member deposits related to either pure magmatic activity, or pure phreatomagmatic activity. In addition, some deposits show evidence of the contemporaneous operation of both end-member fragmentation modes. The presence of the two contrasting fragmentation processes during the various phases of explosive activity is tentatively interpreted to be a function in inhomogeneities in gas exsolution processes within the magma column that feeds the eruption.     

Activity of Mount Etna preceding the February 1999 fissure eruption: inferred mechanism from seismological and geochemical data

The February 1999 eruption of Mt. Etna took place through a fissure on the SSE flank of the cone of the summit SE Crater. This event was preceded by continuous activity since 1995, sometimes accompanied by violent outbursts from one or more of the three other summit craters (NE Crater, Voragine or Chasm, and Bocca Nuova), and finally by a series of 20 short-lived eruptions from the SE Crater between September 1998 and January 1999. These phenomena could be accounted for by invoking gradual invasion of a shallow small reservoir by more primitive, basic and gas-rich magma coming from depth. The shallow “chamber” is more likely to be a plexus of dikes, which had developed during the previous years (1995–1997), following variations of the local stress field owing to enhanced magma generation and accumulation at the top of the mantle. Magma injection and mixing is evidenced through geochemistry, whereas the state of stress of the volcanic pile and underlying crust is determined using earthquake distributions and focal mechanisms. The behaviour of the seismic tremor amplitude appears to be a good indicator of the state of unrest of the volcano, although not always directly linked to the relative energy of degassing phenomena.