RELIABILITY BASED ANALYSIS ON RESERVOIR INDUCED EARTHQUAKES

Reservoir induced earthquakes (RIE) are caused by impoundment of reservoir,with the characteristics of small magnitude and shallow focal depth,but they can also lead to not only economic loss,but also many serious secondary disasters,such as dam destruction,landslide,producing greater damages far more than the damages directly produced by earthquakes.So study on RIE is quite significant in the field of dam construction,thus more attentions should be paid to RIE.There are many factors to induce reservoir earthquakes,such as geological condition,rock mass mechanical index,state of crustal stress,pore pressure distribution,all of which are extremely difficult to measure due to the presence of many randomness;even if applying most advanced methods to measure them,the values fluctuate in great range,without a certain value in time and space.The great variety of these parameters gives rise to troubles to analyze RIE by deterministic approaches.How to handle the randomness of these factors has become vital problem in the field of RIE research.In this study,based on probability theory,and taking the main influence factors as stochastic variables,a new method to analyze probability of RIE was proposed by applying reliability theory.Firstly,the factors inducing reservoir earthquakes were analyzed,of which pore pressure in fault caused by water impounding of reservoir plays a vital role in triggering earthquakes.Then,taking these factors,including attitude,friction coefficient,cohesion of fault plane,stress state of fault plane and pore pressure in fault,as stochastic variables,performance function of triggering earthquakes was established by applying Coulomb stress on the fault plane,and reliability theory was used to analyze probability of earthquake induced by main factors.A special case analysis showed that:(1) The probability of induced earthquakes dramatically increases as pore pressure in fault increases;under the condition of equal pore pressure at triggering earthquakes area,probability of induced earthquakes obviously rises with enlarging of variation of pore pressure;(2) those faults with strike approximately parallel to horizontal maximum principal stress direction or with steep dip angle about more than 60° are prone to inducing earthquake;(3) as horizontal minimum principal stress increases,which has greater effect on induced earthquakes than horizontal maximum principal stress,probability of induced earthquakes becomes lower and fault keeps in more stable condition;(4) probability of induced earthquakes gradually decreases with the increase of friction coefficient and cohesion of fault plane;However,the effect of friction coefficient on induced earthquakes is much greater than the cohesion of fault plane.     

基于沉积过程的数字岩石建模方法研究

本文提出模拟地层沉积及成岩过程的矿物沉积算法,建立数字岩石模型,并通过对比Micro-CT扫描图像和数值模型的局部孔隙度及平均渗流概率函数分布特征,评价建模的准确性.结果表明,由二维扫描提取的粒径信息作为输入参数,模拟矿物沉积过程建模得到的三维数字岩石模型,能够准确重构原始岩心的非均质性及渗流特性,成功应用于泥质砂岩、碳酸盐岩、页岩等存在多矿物或多尺度孔隙的数字岩石建模中.数字岩石物理是正在兴起的重要技术.数字岩石采用超高分辨率先进成像装备,采集和表征微纳尺度岩石结构,在岩石弹性、电性、核磁、渗流特性等数值计算中发挥重要作用.但是,由于三维直接成像在有限视域内难以表征足够的岩石非均质性,提取二维结构统计特征,利用统计或地质过程法重构具有代表性的三维岩石结构成为十分有价值的研究课题,而且,对业界大量存在的岩石薄片及电镜高清二维图像的深度开发应用也具有重要的现实意义.本文发展的新方法,复原沉积过程,较好地解决了孔隙尺度岩石物理定量研究中数值建模与理论计算的技术瓶颈.

     

粤东桃子窝锡矿区火山-次火山岩和花岗岩锆石U-Pb年龄、Hf同位素特征及其意义

桃子窝锡矿位于莲花山断裂带西段,是典型的火山-次火山岩型锡矿。本文以桃子窝锡矿赋矿火山-次火山岩及花岗岩为研究对象,首次开展LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年和Hf同位素特征研究。获得两个次火山岩样品的锆石206Pb/238 U加权平均年龄为172.1±1.1 Ma和171.8±0.9 Ma,一个花岗岩样品的锆石206 Pb/238 U加权平均年龄为168.9±1.5 Ma,表明桃子窝锡矿火山-侵入岩为中侏罗世同一岩浆事件不同阶段的产物。锆石εHf(t)值大多数为负值,只有3个点的值大于0,变化于-13.96~9.53之间,平均值为-7.92。在εHf(t)-t图解上,εHf(t)值大多落在球粒陨石演化线之下,有3个点落在球粒陨石与亏损地幔演化线之间。二阶段模式年龄除3个点介于609.6~795.5 Ma外,其余点年龄为1 450.8~2 102.5 Ma,Hf同位素特征指示成岩物质主要来源于早中元古代古老地壳的部分熔融,还有新元古代新生地壳物质的加入。结合区内已有的研究成果,认为桃子窝锡矿及有关的火山-次火山岩与中生代太平洋板块向欧亚大陆俯冲有关。     

全球灾害系统(GHS)在地质灾害预测预报中的简介

洪水和滑坡是两种典型的地质灾害。针对这两种地质灾害的预报预测,本文简介了全球灾害系统(GHS)及一些应用。基于遥感和预测模型集成的全球洪水和滑坡灾害的解决思路,笔者采用美国宇航局(NASA)集成的准实时卫星降雨的洪水模型和滑坡模型,初步开发成全球灾害系统(GHS)对相关地区进行研究。通过在洪都拉斯、印度尼西亚、中国汶川等实例研究,表明GHS在在大型洪水的时间和强度上具有较好的预测能力,同时,能较精确地预报出滑坡发生的时间和范围。最后本文提出该系统在福建省应用的展望。     

辽河三角洲滨海湿地水域初级生产力研究进展

滨海湿地位于海洋与陆地生态系统的交错过渡带,具有极高的生产力和光合固碳效率,是海岸带蓝色碳汇的重要组成部分。滨海湿地生产力不仅由芦苇、翅碱蓬、红树林等陆上植被提供,水体中浮游植物的光合固碳也是提供初级生产力的重要途径。以往较多的调查和研究集中在陆上植被,而对于滨海湿地水域浮游植物和底栖微藻的报道较少。近年来随着各国政府和学者对二氧化碳排放和气候变化的关注,滨海湿地多圈层生态系统的碳循环和碳汇过程成为研究热点,而湿地水域生产力和光合固碳过程作为多圈层碳循环中重要的一个环节亦应受到足够的重视。以中国北方典型的盐沼湿地区域——辽河三角洲滨海湿地为案例,对湿地水域生产力研究进展进行综述,并对其影响因素进行讨论,以期为国家碳循环与碳中和目标调查提供参考资料。     

海草床鱼类群落结构的时空变化及其在热带海草床中的育幼

本文以印尼北苏拉威西东部的潟湖为对象,研究了热带海草床鱼类群落的种类组成和时空变化。研究发现当地鱼类的香农-威纳指数在1.57-3.69之间多样性相对较高。在科水平,天竺鲷科的丰度（8.27 ind./（100 m²））和生物量（28.49 g/（100 m²））最高。在物种水平,侧带天竺鲷（Apogon lateralis）的丰度最高,环纹圆天竺鲷（Sphaeramia orbicularis）的生物量最大。对于物种的空间变化,潟湖湖顶、湖中和湖口首先聚类在一起,这可能是由于基质类型引起的。干季和湿季的鱼类种类、丰度和生物量均比转换季高,这可能是由较强的季风造成的,强季风为鱼类提供了更适宜的环境和食物。93.1%的鱼类的最大体长小于它们的性成熟体长,暗示了海草床是很多鱼类的育幼场。因此,保护海草床对渔业和资源的可持续利用至关重要。     

Newly discovered hydrothermal fields along the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge around 63°E

The ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR) to the east of the Melville fracture zone is characterized by very low melt supply and intensive tectonic activity. Due to its weak thermal budget and extremely slow spreading rate, the easternmost SWIR was considered to be devoid of hydrothermal activity until the discovery of the inactive Mt. Jourdanne hydrothermal field(27°51′S, 63°56′E) in 1998. During the COMRA DY115-20 cruise in2009, two additional hydrothermal fields(i.e., the Tiancheng(27°51′S, 63°55′E) and Tianzuo(27°57′S, 63°32′E)fields) were discovered. Further detailed investigations of these two hydrothermal sites were conducted by Chinese manned submersible Jiaolong in 2014–2015. The Tiancheng filed can be characterized as a lowtemperature(up to 13.2°C) diffuse flow hydrothermal field, and is hosted by fractured basalts with hydrothermal fauna widespread on the seafloor. The Tianzuo hydrothermal field is an inactive sulfide field, which is hosted by ultramafic rocks and controlled by detachment fault. The discovery of the three hydrothermal fields around Segment #11 which receives more melt than the regional average, provided evidence for local enhanced magmatism providing heat source to drive hydrothermal circulation. We further imply that hydrothermal activity and sulfide deposits may be rather promising along the easternmost SWIR.     

基于声学调制解调器的声速剖面遥测技术

声速是海洋声呐测量中最重要的声学参数之一。拖缆式声速剖面仪可提供实时测量功能,但其缆长不能满足深海测量要求;自容式声速剖面仪可满足深海测量要求,但工作效率低。如何提高野外深海声速剖面测量工作效率是深海调查一项非常有意义的工作。文中详细介绍了基于声学调制解调器的声速剖面遥测系统的主要结构和功能,揭示了水声通信技术在深海非铠装缆测量中的应用优势。     

淡化速度和幅度对凡纳对虾幼体存活和活力的影响

进行了淡化速度、幅度对凡纳对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)的影响试验,结果表明：每36h和24h降低盐度2～3的两种淡化速度,对虾苗存活率较高,分别为86．7％和83．3％;淡化时间分别为396h和264h。每12h降低盐度2～3的淡化速度,从盐度29．7降至16．3,存活率为90．0％;从盐度16．3降至0,成活率为60.3％。每次降幅为1．3～1．4和2．6～2．7时,最终存活率较高,最终淡化到纯淡水中的存活率分别为83.3％和80．0％。每次降幅度为5.3～5．4时,在降到19．0以前,存活率都还较高,但此后的效果不佳,淡化至淡水时,成活率仅为53.3％。     

激光天文动力学弱光锁相的研究

近年来激光物理与应用的进展促成了激光天文动力学空间任务概念的提出。在激光天文动力学任务概念研究方面 ,必须对由远程航天器上传回的激光进行讯号的测量与处理。激光经过长距离的传输后 ,功率大幅下降 ,因此在空间任务概念的考虑上 ,弱光锁相是计划中关键性的技术。由航天器射来的激光 ,经过望远镜聚光后与本地激光进行锁相 ,由本地激光承载及传达太空激光的相位信息。实验中 ,我们使用 2支半导体激光泵浦非平面环形共振腔钇镏石激光 (Diodelaserpumpednon -planarringcavityNd :YAGlaser) ,分别代表远程的弱光及代表本地的强光 ,建立弱光锁相环路系统 (weak -lightphase -lockedloopsystem)。以中性光强度滤光器 (ND -filter;neutraldensityfilter)减弱光讯号来仿真远程激光传来的弱光。在相位探测部分使用均衡探测法 ,消除激光强度噪声 ,以提高讯噪比。同时配合适当的环路滤波器 ,控制激光频率 ,提高锁相的能力。对 2nW的弱光与 2mW的强光可长时间锁相 ,其均方根相位误差为 57mrad。 2 0 0pW的弱光与 2 0 0 μW的强光锁相时间可达 2h以上 ,其相位误差为 2 0 0mrad。 2 0pW的弱光与 2 0 0 μW的强光锁相时间亦可达 2h以上 ,其相位误差为 1 60mrad。最后 ,我们对 2pW的弱光与 2 0 0 μW的强光锁相 ,