A general framework for error analysis in measurement-based GIS Part 4: Error analysis in length and area measurements

This is the final of a series of four papers on the development of a general framework for error analysis in measurement-based geographic information systems (MBGIS). In this paper, we discuss the error analysis problems in length and area measurements under measurement error (ME) of the defining points. In line with the basic ME model constructed in Part 1 of this series, we formulate the ME models for length and area measurements. For length measurement and perimeter measurement, the approximate laws of error propagation are derived. For area measurement, the exact laws of error propagation are obtained under various conditions. An important result is that area measurement is distributed as a linear combination of independent non-central chi-square variables when the joint ME vectors of vertices coordinates are normal. In addition, we also give a necessary and sufficient condition under which the area measurement estimator is unbiased. As a comparison, the approximate law of error propagation in area measurement is also considered and its approximation is substantiated by numerical experiments.This project was supported by the earmarked grant CUHK 4362/00H of the Hong Kong Research grant Council.     

Modelling for registration of remotely sensed imagery when reference control points contain error

1 Introduction The process of remotely sensed data acquisition isaffected by factors such as the rotation of the earth, finite scan rate of some sensors, curvature of the earth, non-ideal sensor, variation in platform altitude, attitude, velocity, etc.[1]. One important procedurewhich should be done prior to analyzing remotely sensed data, is geometric correction (image to map) or registration (image to image) of remotely sensed data. The purpose of geometric correction or registration is to e…     

Numerical modelling of the turbulent flow developing within and over a 3-d building array,part iii: a istributed drag force approach,its implementation and application

A modified k- model is used for the simulation of the mean wind speed and turbulence for a neutrally-stratified flow through and over a building array, where the array is treated as a porous medium with the drag on the unresolved buildings in the array represented by a distributed momentum sink. More specifically, this model is based on time averaging the spatially averaged Navier–Stokes equation, in which the effects of the obstacle-atmosphere interaction are included through the introduction of a distributed mean-momentum sink (representing drag on the unresolved buildings in the array). In addition, closure of the time-averaged, spatially averaged Navier–Stokes equation requires two additional prognostic equations, namely one for the time-averaged resolved-scale kinetic energy of turbulence,, and another for its dissipation rate, . The performance of the proposed model and some simplified versions derived from it is compared with the spatially averaged, time-mean velocity and various spatially averaged Reynolds stresses diagnosed from a high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow within and over an aligned array of sharp-edged cubes with a plan area density of 0.25. Four different methods for diagnosis of the drag coefficient C_Dfor the aligned cube array, required for the volumetric drag force representation of the cubes, are investigated here. We found that the model predictions for mean wind speed and turbulence in the building array were not sensitive to the differing treatments of the source and sink terms in the and equations (e.g., inclusion of only the `zeroth-order' approximation for the source/sink terms compared with inclusion of a higher-order approximation for the source/sink terms in the and equations), implying that the higher-order approximations of these source/sink terms did not offer any predictive advantage. A possible explanation for this is the utilization of the Boussinesq linear stress–strain constitutive relation within the k– modelling framework, whose implicit omission of any anisotropic eddy-viscosity effects renders it incapable of predicting any strong anisotropy of the turbulence field that might exist in the building array.     

Improved treatments for evaluating horizontal magnetic components through the 3-D FDM in E-polarization induction problems

Introduction The algorithm of the finite difference method (FDM) for solving the 3-D induction problem used by CHEN (1985) is based on the concept suggested by Brewitt-Taylor and Weaver (1976), which assumes the conductivity to be a smoothly-varying function of position. After the comparisons between many model calculations carried out by the author and other methods showed that the vertical components estimated by our method are acceptable in general cases. However, the reliability of the…     

Analysing regional industrialisation in Jiangsu province using geographically weighted regression

 Industry is the most important sector in the Chinese economy. To identify the spatial interaction between the level of regional industrialisation and various factors, this paper takes Jiangsu province of China as a case study. To unravel the existence of spatial nonstationarity, geographically weighted regression (GWR) is employed in this article. Conventional regression analysis can only produce `average' and `global' parameter estimates rather than `local' parameter estimates which vary over space in some spatial systems. Geographically weighted regression (GWR), on the other hand, is a relatively simple, but useful new technique for the analysis of spatial nonstationarity. Using the GWR technique to study regional industrialisation in Jiangsu province, it is found that there is a significant difference between the ordinary linear regression (OLR) and GWR models. The relationships between the level of regional industrialisation and various factors show considerable spatial variability. Received: 4 April 2001 / Accepted: 17 November 2001     

Statistical characteristics of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes in the atmospheric surface layer

Measurements have been made of concentration fluctuations in a dispersing plume from an elevated point source in the atmospheric surface layer using a recently developed fast-response photoionization detector. This detector, which has a frequency response (–6 dB point) of about 100 Hz, is shown to be capable of resolving the fluctuation variance contributed by the energetic subrange and most of the inertial-convective subrange, with a reduction in the fluctuation variance due to instrument smoothing of the finest scales present in the plume of at most 4%.Concentration time series have been analyzed to obtain the statistical characteristics of both the amplitude and temporal structure of the dispersing plume. We present alongwind and crosswind concentration fluctuation profiles of statistics of amplitude structure such as total and conditional fluctuation intensity, skewness and kurtosis, and of temporal structure such as intermittency factor, burst frequency, and mean burst persistence time. Comparisons of empirical concentration probability distributions with a number of model distributions show that our near-neutral data are best represented by the lognormal distribution at shorter ranges, where both plume meandering and fine-scale in-plume mixing are equally important (turbulent-convective regime), and by the gamma distribution at longer ranges, where internal structure or spottiness is becoming dominant (turbulent-diffusive regime). The gamma distribution provides the best model of the concentration pdf over all downwind fetches for data measured under stable stratification. A physical model is developed to explain the mechanism-induced probabilistic schemes in the alongwind development of a dispersing plume, that lead to the observed probability distributions of concentration. Probability distributions of concentration burst length and burst return period have been extracted and are shown to be modelled well with a powerlaw distribution. Power spectra of concentration fluctuations are presented. These spectra exhibit a significant inertial-convective subrange, with the frequency at the spectral peak decreasing with increasing downwind fetch. The Kolmogorov constant for the inertial-convective subrange has been determined from the measured spectra to be 0.17±0.03.     

Aqueous oxidation-reduction kinetics associated with coupled electron-cation transfer from iron-containing silicates at 25°C

Mechanisms and kinetics of aqueous $\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}$ oxidation-reduction and dissolved O₂ interaction in the presence of augite, biotite and hornblende were studied in oxic and anoxic solutions at pH 1–9 at 25°C. Oxidation of surface iron on the minerals coincided with both surface release of Fe⁺² and by reduction of Fe⁺³ in solution. Reaction with iron silicates consumed dissolved oxygen at a rate that increased with decreasing pH. Both Fe⁺³ and O₂ consumption were shown to be controlled by coupled electron-cation transfer reactions of the form;

$\text{[}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{,}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{→ [}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}$

and

$\text{[}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+2}}\text{,}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{H}{}^{\mathrm{+}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{4}\text{O}{}_2\text{→ [}\text{Fe}{}^{\mathrm{+3}}\text{]}{}_{\mathrm{silicate}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{zM}{}^{\mathrm{+z}}\text{+}\text{1}\text{2}\text{H}{}_2\text{O}$

where M is a cation of charge +z. The spontaneous reduction of aqueous Fe⁺³in the presence of precipitated Fe(OH)₃bracketed the surface oxidation standard half cell between +0.33 and +0.52 volts. Concurrent hydrolysis reactions involving cation release from the iron silicates were suppressed by the above reactions. Calculated oxidation depths in the minerals varied between 12 and 80Å and were apparently controlled by rates of solid-state cation diffusion.     

The impacts of economic structure on China’s carbon dioxide emissions: an analysis with reference to other East Asian economies

A change in economic structure influences the total energy consumption as well as CO₂ emissions of a country, given the inherent difference in levels of energy intensity and energy fuel mix of different economic sectors. Its significance has been recognized in recent literature on China’s emission mitigation which could arguably raise China’s mitigation potential and thus the possibility of keeping the 2-degree trajectory on track. This article utilizes the past trend of economic structural change of five East Asian developed economies to project the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China in the coming decades. A special delineation of the economic sector is made, putting private consumption together with the three typical economic production sectors, to resolve the mismatch between the statistical data of energy consumption and economic production, in that residential energy consumption is typically merged into the tertiary sector, although it does not directly correspond to gross domestic product (GDP) output. Results suggest that the level of CO₂ emissions would be lower if China followed a development pathway emphasizing the development of the tertiary sector and continuously shrinking her secondary sector, making it possible for China to contribute more to global carbon mitigation. The impact from the rise of private consumption would be relatively insignificant compared to deindustrialization. In addition to continuous improvement in technology, economic structural change, which reduces carbon emission intensity, would be essential for China to be able to achieve the carbon emission level pledged in the Paris Agreement.

Key policy insights

• For China, significant economic structural reform, particularly deindustrialization, is necessary to achieve the goal of ‘peak emission by 2030’.

• Any additional contribution from China to the global effort to maintain a 2-degree trajectory would be limited – from a ‘fair-contribution’ perspective based on share of population or GDP – because the implied mitigation targets would be almost impossible to achieve.

• If developing countries follow the pathway of developed economies, particularly in developing energy-intensive industries, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions would significantly increase, reducing the possibility of keeping global temperature rise within the 2-degree Celsius benchmark.

     

Large-scale Circulation Control of the Occurrence of Low-level Turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport

This study identifies the atmospheric circulation features that are favorable for the occurrence of low-level turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport [below 1600 feet(around 500 m)]. By using LIDAR data at the airport, turbulence and nonturbulence cases are selected. It is found that the occurrence of turbulence is significantly related to the strength of the southerly wind at 850 h Pa over the South China coast. On the other hand, the east–west wind at this height demonstrates a weak relation to the occurrence. This suggests that turbulence is generated by flow passing Lantau Island from the south. The southerly wind also transports moisture from the South China Sea to Hong Kong, reducing local stability. This is favorable for the development of strong turbulence. It is also noted that the strong southerly wind during the occurrence of low-level turbulence is contributed by an anomalous zonal gradient of geopotential in the lower troposphere over the South China Sea. This gradient is caused by the combination of variations at different timescales. These are the passage of synoptic extratropical cyclones and anticyclones and the intraseasonal variation in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The seasonal variation in geopotential east of the Tibetan Plateau leads to a seasonal change in meridional wind, by which the frequency of low-level turbulence is maximized in spring and minimized in autumn.     

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacificand the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) offersforecasters reliable numerical weather prediction (NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. Whiletraditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesisforecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims toevaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South ChinaSea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has beenproposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, pre dicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 hin advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors ofoperational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul (2011). Theforecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, con sistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized three dimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.