岩石摩擦滑动的声发射b值

用双剪法进行岩石摩擦实验并测定了声发射b值。实验表明,粘滑发生前b值稳定并稍有增加,多次粘滑过程中b值基本不变,随着正应力的增加b值增加。     

Precipitation variability during the past 400?years in the Xiaolong Mountain (central China) inferred from tree rings

We developed the first tree-ring chronology, based on 73 cores from 29 Pinus tabulaeformis trees, for the Xiaolong Mountain area of central China, a region at the boundary of the Asian summer monsoon. This chronology exhibits significant (at 0.01 level) positive correlations with precipitation in May and June, and negative correlations with temperature in May, June and July. Highest linear correlation is observed between tree growth and the seasonalized (April–July) precipitation, suggesting that tree rings tend to integrate the monthly precipitation signals. Accordingly, the April–July total precipitation was reconstructed back to 1629 using these tree rings, explaining 44.7?% of the instrumental variance. A severe drought occurred in the area during the 1630s–1640s, which may be related to the weakened Asian summer monsoon caused by a low land-sea thermal gradient. The dry epoch during the 1920s–1930s and since the late 1970s may be explained by the strengthened Hadley circulation in a warmer climate. The dry (wet) epochs of the 1920s–1930s (the 1750s and 1950s) occurred during the warm (cold) phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that are often associated with weakened (strengthened) East Asian summer monsoon. These relationships indicate significant teleconnections operating over the past centuries in central China related to large-scale synoptic features.     

矿物学岩石学地球化学研究进展综述

近年来，矿物学除矿物标型特征、成因矿物学、找矿矿物学、矿物物理学等基础研究外，矿物材料及应用研究是其一大特色；岩石研究则更多地与构造演化、地幔作用相联系；研究领域的不断扩大、不同学科相互渗透交叉、新生长点的涌现是当前地球一个发展趋势。     

关于固结度计算的一点看法

通过探寻渗透系数、压缩系数(或体积压缩系数)与孔隙比在固结过程中的变化规律来确定固结系数与固结时间的关系并将其用于固结度计算是无益的,原因在于固结度计算公式只在固结系数为常数时才成立。     

页岩气资源量计算：以鄂尔多斯盆地中生界三叠系延长组长7为例

鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组长7暗色泥页岩是重要的烃源岩。最近的勘探表明,长7具有良好的页岩气开发前景。重点利用鄂尔多斯盆地279口测井资料、18口取心井的347块岩样实验室多种分析测试资料,开展了鄂尔多斯盆地中生界延长组长7页岩气的岩性、岩相、孔隙类型、有机碳含量、热演化程度、含气性、气体储存方式及其在测井曲线的反响研究;在页岩气形成条件的研究基础上,建立了岩性、含气性、有机质含量与自然伽马、声波时差、电阻率之间的关系,有效地识别含气泥页岩;选择容积法对延长组页岩气资源量进行计算,为未来页岩气的勘探和开发奠定基础。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

Ka波段毫米波云雷达对青藏高原东南缘降水回波的分析

利用丽江站新建的Ka波段毫米波云雷达获得的高时间分辨率的垂直观测资料,结合同址的地面自动气象站和雨滴谱的分钟数据、常规探空数据和附近C波段天气雷达的强度回波,分析了两次降水过程前后云雷达反射率因子Z、径向速度V_r、速度谱宽S_w的垂直变化规律。分析表明:在发生弱降水时,云雷达Z在垂直方向的变化不明显;但V_r、S_w值在0℃层稍低位置有一个明显的分界层(融化层),粒子通过融化层后V_r、S_w都是快速变大,这个变化主要是粒子的相态由固态变成液态引发的,可以通过V_r、S_w突变值的位置来识别0℃层亮带的高度。从C波段天气雷达回波强度、剖面图及云雷达位置的时间-高度图看,对毛毛雨和小雨的回波,强度和高度差异比较明显,毛毛雨比小雨回波高度低、强度弱,与云雷达相比C波段雷达对高一些的云观测不到,对距离较远的弱降水回波无法观测到;由于相同粒子对不同波长电磁波的散射不一样,造成两种雷达垂直方向观测到的Z变化不同。对比弱降水回波,云雷达在...     

西藏雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区量化地貌特征及其成因

以数字高程分析、实地地貌调查及沉积物年代学为手段, 开展了西藏雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区地貌特征及其成因研究, 采用SRTM-DEM数据对地貌进行了量化分析.区域地貌总体特征为高海拔、高起伏、平山顶(北区).在ArcGIS平台中运用条带法获得该区的最大高程-平均高程-最小高程剖面, 剖面特征显示最大高程控制平均高程; 利用最大和最小高程剖面定量计算各地质单元的水系下切深度.实地调查及年代学研究发现该地区河谷沉积物以晚更新世以来的冰碛物和冰湖相沉积物为主.结果表明, 在雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区地貌演化过程中, 高山冰雪作用是地貌“削高”、“去顶”的重要外动力因素, 也是有助于“修平”山顶并形成齐一峰顶面的参与因素; 流水“切割”和“搬运”作用是形成地表高起伏的重要原因; 外流水系大大削弱了地貌“填低”作用, 也是导致河谷山谷沉积物年轻化的原因.      

Eutrophication,health risk assessment and spatial analysis of water quality in Gucheng Lake,China

The water characteristics of the Gucheng Lake, such as eutrophication, health and spatial distribution, were investigated. On the basis of the trophic state index (TSI) and entropy weight, a synthesized trophic state index (STSI) model was established to assess lake eutrophication condition through calculating STSI, choosing TP, TN, COD, BOD and NH₃-N as trophic variables. The STSI ranged from 50.58 to 62.44, which showed that the water has been between eutrophic and supereutrophic. A histogram was applied to health risk assessment which was analyzed from carcinogenic substances (Cr⁺⁶, As and Cd) and non-carcinogenic substances (hydroxybenzene, Pb, Hg, CN⁻ and NH₃), and the results showed that the former was much greater than the latter for effect. The total risk for each resident caused by all pollutants ranged from 5.18E-05 to 8.34E-05, which is far higher than the standard, recommended by Sweden Bureau of Environment Protection and Holland Ministry of Building and Environment Protection (1.0E-05). Cluster analysis was used to detect similarities and dissimilarities among the seven sampling sites and explain the observed clustering in terms of affected conditions. Twenty-one variables were used to divide seven sampling sites into three groups, namely, north lake, south lake and lake center.