Evolution of sea-level trends along the Norwegian coast from 1960 to 2100

Ocean Dynamics - A first national analysis of the evolution of sea-level rates along the Norwegian coast for the period 1960–2100 has been accomplished by exploring tide-gauge records,...     

ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature

The latest operational version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system is described. It shows noticeably improved skill for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction compared with previous versions, particularly with respect to El Nino related variability. Substantial skill is shown for lead times up to 1?year, although at this range the spread in the ensemble forecast implies a loss of predictability large enough to account for most of the forecast error variance, suggesting only moderate scope for improving long range El Nino forecasts. At shorter ranges, particularly 3?C6?months, skill is still substantially below the model-estimated predictability limit. SST forecast skill is higher for more recent periods than earlier ones. Analysis shows that although various factors can affect scores in particular periods, the improvement from 1994 onwards seems to be robust, and is most plausibly due to improvements in the observing system made at that time. The improvement in forecast skill is most evident for 3-month forecasts starting in February, where predictions of NINO3.4 SST from 1994 to present have been almost without fault. It is argued that in situations where the impact of model error is small, the value of improved observational data can be seen most clearly. Significant skill is also shown in the equatorial Indian Ocean, although predictive skill in parts of the tropical Atlantic are relatively poor. SST forecast errors can be especially high in the Southern Ocean.     

The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO₂ concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies—e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO₂).     

Sediments in the estuarine environment of the tigris/euphrates delta; Iraq; Arabian Gulf

Studies on surface water characters of the estuarine environment of Iraq, northwestern Arabian Gulf, define three subdivisions of salinity: oligohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline. Textural analysis reveals that surface sediments covering the bottom are composed of six distinct classes: silty clay, clayey silt, sand-silt-clays, clayey sand, silty sand and sand. Five physiographic subdivisions are identified and described fluvial-estuarine, tidal mud flats (subtidal flat, lower intertidal flat, upper intertidal flat, supratidal flat), sand bars, Abdallah-Shetana channel and submerged estuarine distributary channel and bar systems. The content of organic matter in the sediments ranges from 0.24-3.69 per cent by weight. High values were recorded from the Abdallah-Shetana channel while lower values are confined to sand bars and submerged estuarine distributary channel and bar systems. Carbonates, quartz, feldspar, and halite are the main mineral constituents of the non-clay grade sediments; carbonates are present mainly as low-magnesium calcite followed by dolomite and high-magnesium calcite. Aragonite is present only in trace amounts. Both detrital and biogenic sources are suggested for low-magnesium calcite. A detrital source for dolomite and a biogenic source for high-magnesium calcite and aragonite are proposed.     

Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions and trace element geochemistry of megacrysts and melilitites from the Tertiary Urach volcanic field: source composition of small volume melts under SW Germany

 The Urach volcanic field is unique within the Tertiary–Quaternary European volcanic province (EVP) due to more than 350 tuffaceous diatremes and only sixteen localities with extremely undersaturated olivine melilitite. We report representative Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions and incompatible trace element data for twenty-two pristine augite, Cr-diopside, hornblende, and phlogopite megacryst samples from the diatremes, and seven melilitite whole rocks. The Pb isotopic compositions for melilitites and comagmatic megacrysts have very radiogenic ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of 19.4 to 19.9 and plot on the northern hemisphere mantle reference line (NHRL). The data indicate absence of an old crustal component as reflected in the high ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of many basalts from the EVP. This inference is supported by ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of ∼17.6 to 18.3 and ɛ_Nd of ∼−7.8 to +1.6 for five phlogopite xenocryst samples reflecting a distinct and variably rejuvenated lower Hercynian basement. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.7033 to 0.7035 in the comagmatic megacrysts are low relative to their moderately radiogenic Nd isotopic compositions (ɛ_Nd +2.2 to +5.1) and consistent with a long-term source evolution with a low Rb/Sr ratio and depletion in light rare-earth elements (LREE). The melilitite whole-rock data show a similar range in Nd isotopic ratios as determined for the megacrysts but their Sr isotopic compositions are often much more radiogenic due to surface alteration. The REE patterns and incompatible trace element ratios of the melilitites (e.g. Nb/Th, Nb/U, Sr/Nd, P/Nd, Ba/Th, Zr/Hf) are similar to those in ocean island basalts (OIB); negative anomalies for normalized K and Rb concentrations support a concept of melt evolution in the lithospheric mantle. Highly variable Ce/Pb ratios of 29 to 66 are positively correlated with La/Lu, La/K₂O, and Ba/Nd and interpreted to reflect melting in the presence of residual amphibole and phlogopite. The data suggest an origin of the melilitites from a chemical boundary layer very recently enriched by melts from old OIB sources. We suggest that the OIB-like mantle domains represent low-temperature melting heterogeneities in an upwelling asthenosphere under western Europe. Received: 9 March 1995/Accepted: 24 July 1995     

AUS: Anisotropic undrained shear strength model for clays

A total stress model applicable to clays under undrained conditions is presented. The model involves three strength parameters: the undrained shear strengths in triaxial compression, triaxial extension, and simple shear. The amount of physical anisotropy implied by the model is a function of the relative magnitude of these three strengths assuming a Mises-type plastic potential. Elastoplastic deformation characteristics below failure are accounted for by a hardening law requiring two additional parameters that can be related to the axial strains halfway to failure in triaxial compression and extension. Finally, elasticity is accounted for by Hooke law. The result is a relatively simple model whose parameters can all be inferred directly from a combination of in situ and standard undrained laboratory tests. The model is applied to a problem involving the horizontal loading of a monopile foundation for which full scale tests have been previously conducted. The model shows good agreement with the measured data.     

Bandlimited implicit Runge–Kutta integration for Astrodynamics

We describe a new method for numerical integration, dubbed bandlimited collocation implicit Runge–Kutta (BLC-IRK), and compare its efficiency in propagating orbits to existing techniques commonly used in Astrodynamics. The BLC-IRK scheme uses generalized Gaussian quadratures for bandlimited functions. This new method allows us to use significantly fewer force function evaluations than explicit Runge–Kutta schemes. In particular, we use a low-fidelity force model for most of the iterations, thus minimizing the number of high-fidelity force model evaluations. We also investigate the dense output capability of the new scheme, quantifying its accuracy for Earth orbits. We demonstrate that this numerical integration technique is faster than explicit methods of Dormand and Prince 5(4) and 8(7), Runge–Kutta–Fehlberg 7(8), and approaches the efficiency of the 8th-order Gauss–Jackson multistep method. We anticipate a significant acceleration of the scheme in a multiprocessor environment.     

A combined IR and XRD study of natural well crystalline goethites (α-FeOOH)

Acta Geochimica - Goethite (α-FeOOH) is one of the most abundant minerals on the Earth surface, occurring in temperate, tropical and equatorial climates. Fe in goethite can be substituted by...     

Failure in accretionary wedges with the maximum strength theorem: numerical algorithm and 2D validation

The objective is to capture the 3D spatial variation in the failure mode occurring in accretionary wedges and their analog experiments in the laboratory from the sole knowledge of the material strength and the structure geometry. The proposed methodology relies on the maximum strength theorem which is inherited from the kinematic approach of the classical limit analysis. It selects the optimum virtual velocity field which minimizes the tectonic force. These velocity fields are constructed by interpolation thanks to the spatial discretization conducted with ten-noded tetrahedra in 3D and six-noded triangles in 2D. The resulting, discrete optimization problem is first presented emphasizing the dual formalism found most appropriate in the presence of nonlinear strength criteria, such as the Drucker–Prager criterion used in all reported examples. The numerical scheme is first applied to a perfectly triangular 2D wedge. It is known that failure occurs to the back for topographic slope smaller than and to the front for slope larger than a critical slope, defining subcritical and supercritical slope stability conditions, respectively. The failure mode is characterized by the activation of a ramp, its conjugate back thrust, and the partial or complete activation of the décollement. It is shown that the critical slope is captured precisely by the proposed numerical scheme, the ramp, and the back thrust corresponding to regions of localized virtual strain. The influence of the back-wall friction on this critical slope is explored. It is found that the failure mechanism reduces to a thrust rooting at the base of the back wall and the absence of back thrust, for small enough values of the friction angle. This influence is well explained by the Mohr construction and further validated with experimental results with sand, considered as an analog material. 3D applications of the same methodology are presented in a companion paper.