GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING Reference Glasses for In Situ and Bulk Isotopic Determination

This paper contains the results of an extensive isotopic study of United States Geological Survey GSD‐1G and MPI‐DING reference glasses. Thirteen different laboratories were involved using high‐precision bulk (TIMS, MC‐ICP‐MS) and microanalytical (LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, LA‐ICP‐MS) techniques. Detailed studies were performed to demonstrate the large‐scale and small‐scale homogeneity of the reference glasses. Together with previously published isotopic data from ten other laboratories, preliminary reference and information values as well as their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level were determined for H, O, Li, B, Si, Ca, Sr, Nd, Hf, Pb, Th and U isotopes using the recommendations of the International Association of Geoanalysts for certification of reference materials. Our results indicate that GSD‐1G and the MPI‐DING glasses are suitable reference materials for microanalytical and bulk analytical purposes.     

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Climate strongly affects energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Washington State (WA). We evaluate potential effects of climate change on the seasonality and annual amount of PNW hydropower production, and on heating and cooling energy demand. Changes in hydropower production are estimated by linking simulated streamflow scenarios produced by a hydrology model to a simulation model of the Columbia River hydro system. Changes in energy demand are assessed using gridded estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) which are then combined with population projections to create energy demand indices that respond both to climate, future population, and changes in residential air conditioning market penetration. We find that substantial changes in the amount and seasonality of energy supply and demand in the PNW are likely to occur over the next century in response to warming, precipitation changes, and population growth. By the 2040s hydropower production is projected to increase by 4.7–5.0% in winter, decrease by about 12.1–15.4% in summer, with annual reductions of 2.0–3.4%. Larger decreases of 17.1–20.8% in summer hydropower production are projected for the 2080s. Although the combined effects of population growth and warming are projected to increase heating energy demand overall (22–23% for the 2020s, 35–42% for the 2040s, and 56–74% for the 2080s), warming results in reduced per capita heating demand. Residential cooling energy demand (currently less than one percent of residential demand) increases rapidly (both overall and per capita) to 4.8–9.1% of the total demand by the 2080s due to increasing population, cooling degree days, and air conditioning penetration.     

Carbon Capture and Storage From Fossil Fuels and Biomass – Costs and Potential Role in Stabilizing the Atmosphere

The capture and storage of CO₂ from combustion of fossil fuels is gaining attraction as a means to deal with climate change. CO₂ emissions from biomass conversion processes can also be captured. If that is done, biomass energy with CO₂ capture and storage (BECS) would become a technology that removes CO₂ from the atmosphere and at the same time deliver CO₂-neutral energy carriers (heat, electricity or hydrogen) to society. Here we present estimates of the costs and conversion efficiency of electricity, hydrogen and heat generation from fossil fuels and biomass with CO₂ capture and storage. We then insert these technology characteristics into a global energy and transportation model (GET 5.0), and calculate costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentration at 350 and 450 ppm. We find that carbon capture and storage technologies applied to fossil fuels have the potential to reduce the cost of meeting the 350 ppm stabilisation targets by 50% compared to a case where these technologies are not available and by 80% when BECS is allowed. For the 450 ppm scenario, the reduction in costs is 40 and 42%, respectively. Thus, the difference in costs between cases where BECS technologies are allowed and where they are not is marginal for the 450 ppm stabilization target. It is for very low stabilization targets that negative emissions become warranted, and this makes BECS more valuable than in cases with higher stabilization targets. Systematic and stochastic sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, BECS opens up the possibility to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. But this option should not be seen as an argument in favour of doing nothing about the climate problem now and then switching on this technology if climate change turns out to be a significant problem. It is not likely that BECS can be initiated sufficiently rapidly at a sufficient scale to follow this path to avoiding abrupt and serious climate changes if that would happen.     

Geochemical and geochronological evidence for a Middle Permian oceanic plateau fragment in the Paleo-Tethyan suture zone of NE Iran

The mafic–ultramafic Fariman complex in northeastern Iran has been interpreted as a Paleo-Tethyan ophiolitic fragment with subduction- and plume-related characteristics as well as a basin deposit on an active continental margin. Contributing to this issue, we present geochemical, geochronological, and mineralogical data for transitional and tholeiitic basalts. Thermodynamic modeling suggests picritic parental magmas with 16–21 wt% MgO formed at plume-like mantle potential temperatures of ca. 1460–1600 °C. Rare pyroxene spinifex textures and skeletal to feather-like clinopyroxene attest to crystallization from undercooled magma and high cooling rates. Chromium numbers and TiO₂ concentrations in spinel are similar to those in intraplate basalts. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating of magmatic hornblende yielded a plateau age of 276?±?4 Ma (2σ). Transitional basalt with OIB-like trace element characteristics is the predominant rock-type; less frequent are tholeiitic basalts with mildly LREE depleted patterns and picrites with intermediate trace element characteristics. All samples show MORB-OIB like Pb/Ce, Th/La, and Th/Nb ratios which preclude subduction-modified mantle sources and felsic crustal material. Tholeiitic basalts and related olivine cumulate rocks show MORB-like initial ε_Nd values of +?9.4 to +?6.2 which define a mixing line with the data for the transitional basalts (ε_Nd ca. +?2.6). Initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios of 0.124–0.293 support mixed sources with a high proportion of recycled mafic crust in the transitional basalts. High concentrations of highly siderophile elements are in agreement with the high mantle potential temperatures and inferred high-melting degrees. It is argued that the Fariman complex originated by melting of a mantle plume component as represented by the OIB-like transitional basalt and entrained asthenosphere predominant in the MORB-like tholeiites. Two lines of evidence such as association of the Fariman complex with pelagic to neritic sedimentary rocks and the tectonic position at the boundary of two continental blocks defined by ophiolites and accretionary complexes of different ages suggest formation in an oceanic domain. Thus, we interpret it as a fragment of an oceanic plateau, which escaped subduction and was accreted as exotic block in the Paleo-Tethyan suture zone.     

Early Silurian tholeiitic-boninitic Mailisu ophiolite,South Tianshan,Kyrgyzstan: a geochemical record of subduction initiation

ABSTRACT

Ophiolite assemblages of the South Tianshan fold-and-thrust-belt (STS) track the sea floor dynamics of the late Cambrian to Carboniferous Turkestan Ocean in the western Central Asian Orogenic Belt. We interpret new geochronological and geochemical data for the Mailisu ophiolite from western Kyrgyzstan as evidence for an early Silurian incipient subduction zone outboard the South Chatkal Arc of the Middle Tianshan. Igneous zircons from a leucogabbro yielded a U-Pb age of 440 ± 6 Ma indicating one of the oldest sea floor fragments in the STS. Metabasalt samples have N- to E-MORB trace element patterns and initial ε_Nd values of ~5 to 9 support melting of depleted asthenosphere comprising a minor OIB component. Cross-cutting diabase dykes show geochemical characteristics of high-Ca basaltic boninites. Their low REE abundances and highly fractionated middle-heavy REE patterns indicate sources that were more melt-depleted than those of the metabasalts. Concave upwards LREE patterns are compatible with a residual peridotite source, fertilised by small-degree OIB-like melts with ε_Nd of ~5 to 6. Positive Ba, Sr, and Pb anomalies support the involvement of slab-derived hydrous fluids that probably facilitated the melting of the residual mantle. The association of MORB-like metabasalts with younger dykes of boninite affinity suggests subduction initiation for the origin of the Mailisu ophiolite. Our data elucidate one of the major yet little understood episodes in the Paleozoic history of the Turkestan Ocean. Future identification of similar rock assemblages will be helpful to understand the insufficiently constrained history of ocean floor subduction in the Paleozoic Oceans of the western CAOB.     

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.     

Atmospheric mesoscale conditions during the Boothbay meteotsunami: a numerical sensitivity study using a high-resolution mesoscale model

The article aims to test the sensitivity of high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model to fairly reproduce atmospheric processes that were present during the Boothbay Harbor meteotsunami on 28 October 2008. The simulations were performed by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing by varying initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), nesting strategy, simulation lead time and microphysics and convective parameterizations. It seems that the simulations that used higher-resolution IC and LBC were more successful in reproduction of precipitation zone and surface pressure oscillations caused by internal gravity waves observed during the event. The results were very sensitive to the simulation lead time and to the choice of convective parameterization, while the choice of microphysics parameterization and the type of nesting strategy (one-way or two-way) was less important for reproducibility of the event. The success of the WRF model appears limited to very short-range forecasting, most advanced parameterizations, and very high-resolution grid spacing; therefore, the applicability of present atmospheric mesoscale models to future operational meteotsunami warning systems still has a lot of room for improvements.