Understanding the statistical properties of the percent model affinity index can improve biomonitoring related decision making

The percent model affinity (PMA) index is used to measure the similarity of two probability profiles representing, for example, an ideal profile (i.e. reference condition) and a monitored profile (i.e. possibly impacted condition). The goal of this work is to study the effects of sample size, evenness, true value of the index and number of classes on the statistical properties of the estimator of the PMA index. We derive and extend previous formulas of the expectation and variance of the estimator for estimated monitored profile and fixed reference profile. Using the obtained extension, we find that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, converging faster when the profiles differ. When both profiles are estimated, we calculate the expectation using transformation rules for expectation and in addition derive the formula for the estimator’s variance. Since the computation of the probabilities in the variance formula is slow, we study the behavior of the variance with simulation experiments and assess whether it could be approximated with the variance for the fixed reference profile. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for the users of the PMA index to avoid the most common caveats of the index.     

Fine‐scale diet of the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) using DNA‐based analysis of faeces

We applied DNA‐based faecal analysis to determine the diet of female Australian sea lions (n = 12) from two breeding colonies in South Australia. DNA dietary components of fish and cephalopods were amplified using the polymerase chain reaction and mitochondrial DNA primers targeting the short (~100 base pair) section of the 16S gene region. Prey diversity was determined by sequencing ~50 amplicons generated from clone libraries developed for each individual. Faecal DNA was also combined and cloned from multiple individuals at each colony and fish diversity determined. Diets varied between individuals and sites. Overall, DNA analysis identified a broad diversity of prey comprising 23 fish and five cephalopod taxa, including many species not previously described as prey of the Australian sea lion. Labridae (wrasse), Monacanthidae (leatherjackets) and Mullidae (goat fish) were important fish prey taxa. Commonly identified cephalopods were Octopodidae (octopus), Loliginidae (calamary squid) and Sepiidae (cuttlefish). Comparisons of fish prey diversity determined by pooling faecal DNA from several samples provided a reasonable but incomplete resemblance (55–71%) to the total fish diversity identified across individual diets at each site. Interpretation of diet based on the recovery of prey hard‐parts identified one cephalopod beak (Octopus sp.) and one fish otolith (Parapriacanthus elongatus). The present study highlights the value of DNA‐based analyses and their capabilities to enhance information of trophic interactions.     

Comparing long term sediment records to current biological quality element data - Implications for bioassessment and management of a eutrophic lake

Defining reference conditions for lakes situated in areas of human settlement and agriculture is rarely straightforward, and is especially difficult within easily eroding and nutrient rich watersheds. We used diatoms, cyanobaterial akinetes, remains of green algae and chironomid head capsules from sediment samples of Lake Kirmanjärvi, Finland, to assess its deviation from the initial ecological status. These site-specific records of change were compared to current type-specific ecological status assessment. All paleolimnological data indicated deviation from natural conditions and mirrored the current, monitoring-based assessment of “moderate” ecological lake status. However, the sediment data showed that the lake should be re-typified as a naturally eutrophic lake. Sediment records as well as current monitoring data indicated temporary improvement in water quality in response to extensive fish manipulation. Our results suggest that paleolimnological records can be used to derive site-specific reference conditions and that extensive restoration efforts can result in gradual, observable improvements of water quality and ecological status.     

Tertiary alkaline Roztoky Intrusive Complex, České středohoří Mts., Czech Republic: petrogenetic characteristics

The ?eské st?edoho?í Mts. is the dominant volcanic center of the Oh?e (Eger) rift zone. It hosts the Roztoky Intrusive Complex (RIC), which is made up of a caldera vent and intrusions of 33–28-Ma-old hypabyssal bodies of essexite–monzodiorite–sodalite syenite series accompanied by a radially oriented 30–25-Ma-old dike swarm comprising about 1,000 dikes. The hypabyssal rocks are mildly alkaline mostly foid-bearing types of mafic to intermediate compositions. The dike swarm consists of chemically mildly alkaline and rare strongly alkaline rocks (tinguaites). The geochemical signatures of the mildly alkaline hypabyssal and associated dike rocks of the RIC are consistent with HIMU mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The compositional variations of essexite and monzodiorite can be best explained by fractional crystallization of parent magma without significant contributions of crustal material. On the other hand, the composition of monzosyenite, leuco-monzodiorite and sodalite syenite reflects fractional crystallization coupled with variable degrees of crustal assimilation. It is suggested that the parent magmas in the Oh?e rift were produced by an adiabatic decompression melting of ambient upper mantle in response to lithospheric extension associated with the Alpine Orogeny.     

Modelling forest snow processes with a new version of WaSiM

ABSTRACT

We present a new model extension for the Water balance Simulation Model, WaSiM, which features (i) snow interception and (ii) modified meteorological conditions under coniferous forest canopies, complementing recently developed model extensions for particular mountain hydrological processes. Two study areas in Austria and Germany are considered in this study. To supplement and constrain the modelling experiments with on-site observations, a network of terrestrial time-lapse cameras was set up in one of these catchments. The spatiotemporal patterns of snow depth inside the forest and at the adjacent open field sites were recorded along with snow interception dynamics. Comparison of observed and modelled snow cover and canopy interception indicates that the new version of WaSiM reliably reconstructs the variability of snow accumulation for both the forest and the open field. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency computed for selected runoff events in spring increases from ?0.68 to 0.71 and 0.21 to 0.87, respectively.     

Commonwealth Urban Policy in Australia: the case of inner urban regeneration in Sydney, 1973–75

Urban regeneration has intermittently been identified within Commonwealth policy circles as central to the functioning of Australian cities since the 1940s. This paper adds to existing knowledge by exploring the role of the Commonwealth Department of Urban and Regional Development (DURD) in the 1970s in facilitating a series of urban regeneration projects in Sydney. Drawing upon ministerial correspondence and minutes recently out of confidential embargo, the genesis of a holistic urban regeneration agenda is explored. The paper traces the approaches to Commonwealth intervention at a time marked by disillusionment with the comprehensive redevelopment paradigm. It explores the relationships and tensions apparent between and within different levels of government in establishing a Commonwealth presence, focusing on three inner city neighbourhoods: Waterloo, Glebe and Woolloomooloo. The significance of the interventions is considered to lie primarily in the pioneering of an all-of-government approach to urban governance.     

A new moment method for continuum radiative transfer in cosmological re-ionization

We introduce a new code for computing time-dependent continuum radiative transfer and non-equilibrium ionization states in static density fields with periodic boundaries. Our code solves the moments of the radiative transfer equation, closed by an Eddington tensor computed using a long characteristics (LC) method. We show that traditional short characteristics and the optically thin approximation are inappropriate for computing Eddington factors for the problem of cosmological re-ionization. We evolve the non-equilibrium ionization field via an efficient and accurate (errors <1 per cent) technique that switches between fully implicit or explicit finite differencing depending on whether the local time-scales are long or short compared to the time-step. We tailor our code for the problem of cosmological re-ionization. In tests, the code conserves photons, accurately treats cosmological effects and reproduces analytic Strömgren sphere solutions. Its chief weakness is that the computation time for the LC calculation scales relatively poorly compared to other techniques  ( t _LC∝ N ^∼1.5_cells)  ; however, we mitigate this by only recomputing the Eddington tensor when the radiation field changes substantially. Our technique makes almost no physical approximations, so it provides a way to benchmark faster but more approximate techniques. It can readily be extended to evolve multiple frequencies, though we do not do so here. Finally, we note that our method is generally applicable to any problem involving the transfer of continuum radiation through a periodic volume.     

Analytical and numerical investigation of multicomponent multiphase WAG displacements

In this paper the ability of analytical solutions for four-component three-phase flow to predict displacement efficiency in water alternating gas (WAG) injection processes is studied. First analytical solutions for Riemann problems with injection compositions that are the average water and gas mixture for various WAG injection schemes are presented. These solutions are compared to numerical calculations with variable slug sizes and used to explore the effect of slug size, injecting water vs gas first, and the average injection composition on displacement efficiency in compositional WAG schemes. The example model is partially miscible WAG injection of water and CO₂ into an oil reservoir containing C₁₀ and CH₄ with and without a mobile aqueous phase present initially. The trailing end of the water and gas profiles are sensitive to whether water or gas is injected first, but the magnitude of the oil bank and the breakthrough time of the injected fluids are accurately predicted by the analytical solutions, even for displacements where large water and gas slugs are injected. Fluctuations in the saturation and composition profiles resulting from the alternating injection sequence in the WAG simulations appear as super-imposed on top of the sequence of rarefaction and shock waves predicted by analytical solutions. As the number of slugs increases, the effect of alternating boundary conditions diminishes and the displacements predicted by numerical calculations converge to the analytical solutions.     

Plutonism in the Variscan Odenwald (Germany): from subduction to collision

 Latest Devonian to early Carboniferous plutonic rocks from the Odenwald accretionary complex reflect the transition from a subduction to a collisional setting. For ∼362 Ma old gabbroic rocks from the northern tectonometamorphic unit I, initial isotopic compositions (ε_Nd=+3.4 to +3.8;⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr =0.7035–0.7053;δ¹⁸O=6.8–8.0‰) and chemical signatures (e.g., low Nb/Th, Nb/U, Ce/Pb, Th/U, Rb/Cs) indicate a subduction-related origin by partial melting of a shallow depleted mantle source metasomatized by water-rich, large ion lithophile element-loaded fluids. In the central (unit II) and southern (unit III) Odenwald, syncollisional mafic to felsic granitoids were emplaced in a transtensional setting at approximately 340–335 Ma B.P. Unit II comprises a mafic and a felsic suite that are genetically unrelated. Both suites are intermediate between the medium-K and high-K series and have similar initial Nd and Sr signatures (ε_Nd=0.0 to –2.5;⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.7044–0.7056) but different oxygen isotopic compositions (δ¹⁸O=7.3–8.7‰ in mafic vs 9.3–9.5‰ in felsic rocks). These characteristics, in conjunction with the chemical signatures, suggest an enriched mantle source for the mafic magmas and a shallow metaluminous crustal source for the felsic magmas. Younger intrusives of unit II have higher Sr/Y, Zr/Y, and Tb/Yb ratios suggesting magma segregation at greater depths. Mafic high-K to shoshonitic intrusives of the southern unit III have initial isotopic compositions (ε_Nd=–1.1 to –1.8;⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr =0.7054–0.7062;δ¹⁸O=7.2–7.6‰) and chemical characteristics (e.g., high Sr/Y, Zr/Y, Tb/Yb) that are strongly indicative of a deep-seated enriched mantle source. Spatially associated felsic high-K to shoshonitic rocks of unit III may be derived by dehydration melting of garnet-rich metaluminous crustal source rocks or may represent hybrid magmas. Received: 7 December 1998 / Accepted: 27 April 1999     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of Devonian ultramafic minor intrusions of the southern Kola Peninsula, Russia: implications for the petrogenesis of kimberlites and melilitites

Minor magmatic intrusions of kimberlite, melilitite and cpx-melilitite occur in the southern part of the Kola Peninsula, Russia, on the Terskii Coast and near the town of Kandalaksha. They yield K-Ar ages of 382 ± 14 Ma and 365 ± 16 Ma, similar to the magmatic rocks from the Kola Alkaline Province. The Terskii Coast kimberlites have mineralogical and geochemical affinities with group 1 kimberlites, whereas the Kandalaksha monticellite kimberlite more closely resembles calcite kimberlites. The lower Al₂O₃ content in the Kola kimberlites indicates a strongly depleted harzburgitic source, while higher Al₂O₃ in the melilitites suggests a lherzolitic source. The Terskii Coast kimberlites are anomalously potassic and significantly enriched in P and Ba compared to other group 1 kimberlites. In contrast, the melilitites are sodic and are anomalously depleted in P compared to worldwide melilitites. Trace element patterns of the Kola kimberlites and melilitites indicate the presence of K- and P-rich phases in the mantle source. To account for the K-troughs shown by both magma types, a K-rich phase such as phlogopite is thought to be residual in their sources; however, the anomalous K-enrichment in the Terskii Coast kimberlites may indicate that an additional metasomatic K-rich phase (e.g. K-richterite and/or a complex K-Ba-phosphate) existed in the kimberlite source. The P-depletion in the melilitites may suggest that a phosphate phase such as apatite remained residual in the melilititic source. However, anomalous P-enrichment in the kimberlites cannot be explained by complete melting of the same phase because the kimberlites are a smaller degree melt; thus, it is most likely that another metasomatic phosphate mineral existed in the source of the kimberlites. The Kola kimberlites and melilitites are all strongly LREE-enriched but the kimberlites have a steeper REE pattern and are significantly more depleted in HREE, indicating a higher proportion of garnet in their source. Higher Nb/Y ratios and lower SiO₂ values in the kimberlites indicate that they were a smaller degree partial melt than the melilitites. The presence of diamonds in the Terskii Coast kimberlites indicates a relatively deep origin, while the melilitites originated from shallower depth. The non-diamondiferous Kandalaksha monticellite kimberlite has lower abundances of all incompatible trace elements, suggesting a higher degree of partial melting and/or a less enriched and shallower source than the Terskii Coast kimberlites. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_i and Pb isotope compositions confirm that the Terskii Coast kimberlites have close affinities with group 1 kimberlites and were derived from an asthenospheric mantle source, while the Kandalaksha monticellite kimberlite and Terskii Coast melilitites were derived from lithospheric mantle. Impact of a Devonian asthenospheric mantle plume on the base of the Archaean-Proterozoic lithosphere of the Kola Peninsula caused widespread emplacement of kimberlites, melilitites, ultramafic lamprophyres and other more fractionated alkaline magmas. The nature of the mantle affected by metasomatism associated with the plume and, in particular, the depth of melting and the stability of the metasomatic phases, gave rise to the observed differences between kimberlites and the related melilitites and other magmas. Received: 3 March 1997 / Accepted: 7 October 1997