Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Modulation of tropical ocean surface chlorophyll by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The MJO modulation of sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl) examined initially by Waliser et al. in Geophys Res Lett, (2005) is revisited with a significantly longer time-series of observations and a more systematic approach to characterizing the possible mechanisms underlying the MJO-Chl relationships. The MJO composite analysis of Chl and lead-lag correlations between Chl and other physical variables reveal regional variability of Chl and corresponding indicative temporal relationships among variables. Along the path of the MJO convection, wind speed—a proxy for oceanic vertical turbulent mixing and corresponding entrainment—is most strongly correlated with Chl when wind leads Chl by a few days. Composite Chl also displays MJO influences away from the path of the MJO convection. The role of wind speed in those regions is generally the same for Chl variability as that along the path of the MJO convection, although Ekman pumping also plays a role in generating Chl variability in limited regions. However, the wind forcing away from the MJO convection path is less coherent, rendering the temporal link relatively weak. Lastly, the potential for bio-physical feedbacks at the MJO time-scale is examined. The correlation analysis provides tantalizing evidence for local bio-feedbacks to the physical MJO system. Plausible hypothesis for Chl to amplify the MJO phase transition is presented though it cannot be affirmed in this study and will be examined and reported in a future modeling study.     

A note on the significance of the assemblage calcite-quartz-plagioclase-paragonite-graphite

The biotite zone assemblage: calcite-quartz-plagioclase (An₂₅)-phengite-paragonite-chlorite-graphite, is developed at the contact between a carbonate and a pelite from British Columbia. Thermochemical data for the equilibrium paragonite+calcite+2 quartz=albite+ anorthite+CO₂+H₂O yields: $$\log f{\text{H}}_{\text{2}} {\text{O}} + \log f{\text{CO}}_{\text{2}} = 5.76 + 0.117 \times 10^{ - 3} (P - 1)$$ for a temperature of 700°K and a plagioclase composition of An₂₅. By combining this equation with equations describing equilibria between graphite and gas species in the system C-H-O, the following partial pressures: \(P{\text{H}}_2 {\text{O}} = 2572{\text{b, }}P{\text{CO}}_2 = 3162{\text{b, }}P{\text{H}}_2 = 2.5{\text{b, }}P{\text{CH}}_4 = 52.5{\text{b, }}P{\text{CO}} = 11.0{\text{b}}\) are obtained for \(f{\text{O}}_2 = 10^{ - 26}\) . If total pressure equals fluid pressure, then the total pressure during metamorphism was approximately 6 kb. The total fluid pressure calculated is extremely sensitive to the value of \(f{\text{O}}_2\) chosen.     

Clinoform architecture and along‐strike facies variability through an exhumed erosional to accretionary basin margin transition

Exhumed basin margin‐scale clinothems provide important archives for understanding process interactions and reconstructing the physiography of sedimentary basins. However, studies of coeval shelf through slope to basin‐floor deposits are rarely documented, mainly due to outcrop or subsurface dataset limitations. Unit G from the Laingsburg depocentre (Karoo Basin, South Africa) is a rare example of a complete basin margin scale clinothem (>60 km long, 200 m‐high), with >10 km of depositional strike control, which allows a quasi‐3D study of a preserved shelf‐slope‐basin floor transition over a ca. 1,200 km² area. Sand‐prone, wave‐influenced topset deposits close to the shelf‐edge rollover zone can be physically mapped down dip for ca. 10 km as they thicken and transition into heterolithic foreset/slope deposits. These deposits progressively fine and thin over tens of km farther down dip into sand‐starved bottomset/basin‐floor deposits. Only a few km along strike, the coeval foreset/slope deposits are bypass‐dominated with incisional features interpreted as minor slope conduits/gullies. The margin here is steeper, more channelized and records a stepped profile with evidence of sand‐filled intraslope topography, a preserved base‐of‐slope transition zone and sand‐rich bottomset/basin‐floor deposits. Unit G is interpreted as part of a composite depositional sequence that records a change in basin margin style from an underlying incised slope with large sand‐rich basin‐floor fans to an overlying accretion‐dominated shelf with limited sand supply to the slope and basin floor. The change in margin style is accompanied with decreased clinoform height/slope and increased shelf width. This is interpreted to reflect a transition in subsidence style from regional sag, driven by dynamic topography/inherited basement configuration, to early foreland basin flexural loading. Results of this study caution against reconstructing basin margin successions from partial datasets without accounting for temporal and spatial physiographic changes, with potential implications on predictive basin evolution models.     

Radiometric dating of lake sediments from Signy Island (maritime Antarctic): evidence of recent climatic change

Sediment cores from three lakes (Moss, Sombre and Heywood) in the maritime Antarctic (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands) have been successfully dated radiometrically by²¹⁰Pb and¹³⁷Cs. The core inventories of both fallout radionuclides are an order of magnitude higher than that which can be supported by the direct atmospheric flux at this latitude. The elevated values may be explained by fallout onto the catchment during the winter being delivered directly to the lakes during the annual thaw. Two of the lakes (Sombre and Heywood) show marked increases in sediment accumulation afterc. 1950. This appears to be associated with a documented rise in temperature in the South Orkney Islands, which has caused extensive deglaciation at Signy Island.This is the tenth of a series of papers to be published by this journal following the 20 ^th anniversary of the first application of²¹⁰Pb dating of lake sediments. Dr P.G. Appleby is guest editing this series.     

Derivation of a resilient polygon centroid for natural resource management applications

This paper reviews the utility of polygon centroid algorithms for natural resource management applications. Following a review of ‘standard’ centroid derivation algorithms, and their limitations, alternative approaches are proposed. Building upon current polygon-reduction algorithms an iterative edge-erosion model is presented. Resilient centroids derived via this model are shown to: (1) maximise the distance to all internal and external edges; (2) be located within the polygon boundary; and (3) be insensitive to patch vertex outliers.

The resilient centroid is demonstrated to have utility in a range of natural resource management applications including the matching of disparate data sources. Exemplar studies conclude that resilient centroids support an appropriate allocation of vegetation condition point samples both within and between native vegetation patches. Further, the utilisation of resilient centroids enables the (1) sub-division of vegetation patches into homogenous regions (core areas) and (2) interrogation of the relationship between vegetation condition and core area proximity.     

Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.     

On the specific nature of space

Location referring to the earth's structure is absolute and unique. Relative location, emphasising relationships between places, is the basis of locational analysis. Specific location implies a designation of places in terms of social activities and values. A place is a location invested with social values. Space may be undifferentiated until the accumulation of activities and values begin to map it into a meaningful cultural landscape. The significance of specific places can be extended to regions and to states, in which there is convenience between a territory and a value system. Although experiential, this approach to understanding places is a necessary corrective to the incomplete view of reality of orthodox positivism.