Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Mechanical compaction and ultrasonic velocity of sands with different texture and mineralogical composition

This study presents the results of experimental compaction while measuring ultrasonic velocities of sands with different grain size, shape, sorting and mineralogy. Uniaxial mechanical compaction tests up to a maximum of 50 MPa effective stress were performed on 29 dry sand aggregates derived from eight different sands to measure the rock properties. A good agreement was found between the Gassmann saturated bulk moduli of dry and brine saturated tests of selected sands. Sand samples with poor sorting showed low initial porosity while sands with high grain angularity had high initial porosity. The sand compaction tests showed that at a given stress well‐sorted, coarse‐grained sands were more compressible and had higher velocities (Vp and Vs) than fine‐grained sands when the mineralogy was similar. This can be attributed to grain crushing, where coarser grains lead to high compressibility and large grain‐to‐grain contact areas result in high velocities. At medium to high stresses the angular coarse to medium grained sands (both sorted sands and un‐sorted whole sands) showed high compaction and velocities (Vp and Vs). The small grain‐to‐grain contact areas promote higher deformation at grain contacts, more crushing and increased porosity loss resulting in high velocities. Compaction and velocities (Vp and Vs) increased with decreasing sorting in sands. However, at the same porosity, the velocities in whole sands were slightly lower than in the well‐sorted sands indicating the presence of loose smaller grains in‐between the framework grains. Quartz‐poor sands (containing less than 55% quartz) showed higher velocities (Vp and Vs) compared to that of quartz‐rich sands. This could be the result of sintering and enlargement of grain contacts of ductile mineral grains in the quartz‐poor sands increasing the effective bulk and shear stiffness. Tests both from wet measurements and Gassmann brine substitution showed a decreasing Vp/Vs ratio with increasing effective stress. The quartz‐rich sands separated out towards the higher side of the Vp/Vs range. The Gassmann brine substituted Vp and Vs plotted against effective stress provide a measure of the expected velocity range to be found in these and similar sands during mechanical compaction. Deviations of actual well log data from experimental data may indicate uplift, the presence of hydrocarbon, overpressure and/or cementation. Data from this study may help to model velocity‐depth trends and to improve the characterization of reservoir sands from well log data in a low temperature (<80–100^o C) zone where compaction of sands is mostly mechanical.     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest, hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between 7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly, producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online over the next 3 years.     

Upwelling in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea: Atmospheric forcing and local versus non-local response

The spin up and relaxation of an autumn upwelling event on the Beaufort slope is investigated using a combination of oceanic and atmospheric data and numerical models. The event occurred in November 2002 and was driven by an Aleutian low storm. The wind field was strongly influenced by the pack-ice distribution, resulting in enhanced winds over the open water of the Chukchi Sea. Flow distortion due to the Brooks mountain range was also evident. Mooring observations east of Barrow Canyon show that the Beaufort shelfbreak jet reversed to the west under strong easterly winds, followed by upwelling of Atlantic Water onto the shelf. After the winds subsided a deep eastward jet of Atlantic Water developed, centered at 250 m depth. An idealized numerical model reproduces these results and suggests that the oceanic response to the local winds is modulated by a propagating signal from the western edge of the storm. The disparity in wave speeds between the sea surface height signal—traveling at the fast barotropic shelf wave speed—versus the interior density signal—traveling at the slow baroclinic wave speed—leads to the deep eastward jet. The broad-scale response to the storm over the Chukchi Sea is investigated using a regional numerical model. The strong gradient in windspeed at the ice edge results in convergence of the offshore Ekman transport, leading to the establishment of an anti-cyclonic gyre in the northern Chukchi Sea. Accordingly, the Chukchi shelfbreak jet accelerates to the east into the wind during the storm, and no upwelling occurs west of Barrow Canyon. Hence the storm response is fundamentally different on the Beaufort slope (upwelling) versus the Chukchi slope (no upwelling). The regional numerical model results are supported by additional mooring data in the Chukchi Sea.     

Quartz Cement in Middle Jurassic Reservoir Sandstones in North Sea A Review. Part II： Duration and Silica Sources

The timing and duration of quartz cementation in sandstones have been mainly inferred from diagenetic texture, relationship between pore filling minerals, fluid inclusions and isotopic data. Fluid inclusion temperatures from North Sea reservoir sandstones indicate that most of the quartz cement forms at temperature exceeding 90℃ and is continually proceeding after oil emplacement, based on the fluid inclusion temperatures in quartz overgrowth which is approaching the bottom-hole temperatures. The duration of quartz cement after oil emplacement depends upon the saturation of porewater and the distribution of pore water film and the property of water-wet or oil-wet of the reactants. The leaching of K-feldspar by meteoric water requires pore water flow to move the released potassium and sodium and silica out the solution, which suggests the mechanism does not appear to be a major source of silica for quartz cementation. The quartz cementation coincidence with the compaction and pressure solution suggests the major source of silica. The alteration of feldspar by illitization of kaolinite may serve as another important source of silica at deep burial depth. External sources are not need to call on for illustrating the quartz cementation, because there is no evidences for large scale convection of pore water flow occurred in the burial history of reservoir sandstones of middle Jurassic in the North Sea.     

Radio galaxies with a 'double-double' morphology – II. The evolution of double-double radio galaxies and implications for the alignment effect in FRII sources

A double-double radio galaxy (DDRG) is defined as consisting of a pair of double radio sources with a common centre. In this paper we present an analytical model in which the peculiar radio structure of DDRGs is caused by an interruption of the jet flow in the central AGN. The new jets emerging from the restarted AGN give rise to an inner source structure within the region of the old, outer cocoon. Standard models of the evolution of FRII sources predict gas densities within the region of the old cocoon that are insufficient to explain the observed properties of the inner source structure. Therefore additional material must have passed from the environment of the source through the bow shock surrounding the outer source structure into the cocoon. We propose that this material is warm clouds (∼10⁴ K) of gas embedded in the hot IGM which are eventually dispersed over the cocoon volume by surface instabilities induced by the passage of cocoon material. The derived lower limits for the volume filling factors of these clouds are in good agreement with results obtained from optical observations. The long time-scales for the dispersion of the clouds (∼10⁷ yr) are consistent with the apparently exclusive occurrence of the DDRG phenomenon in large (≳700 kpc) radio sources, and with the observed correlation of the strength of the optical/UV alignment effect in z ∼1 FRII sources with their linear size.     

Estimation of Block Sizes for Rock Masses with Non-persistent Joints

Summary  Discontinuities or joints in the rock mass have various shapes and sizes. Along with the joint orientation and spacing, the joint persistence, or the relative size of the joint, is one of the most important factors in determining the block sizes of jointed rock masses. Although the importance of joint persistence on the overall rock mass strength has long been identified, the impact of persistence on rock strength is in most current rock mass classification systems underrepresented. If joints are assumed to be persistent, as is the case in most designs, the sizes of the rock blocks tend to be underestimated. This can lead to more removable blocks than actually exist in-situ. In addition, a poor understanding of the rock bridge strength may lead to lower rock mass strengths, and consequently, to excessive expenditure on rock support. In this study, we suggest and verify a method for the determination of the block sizes considering joint persistence. The idea emerges from a quantitative approach to apply the GSI system for rock mass classification, in which the accurate block size is required. There is a need to statistically analyze how the distribution of rock bridges according to the combination of joint orientation, spacing, and persistence will affect the actual size of each individual block. For this purpose, we generate various combinations of joints with different geometric conditions by the orthogonal arrays using the distinct element analysis tools of UDEC and 3DEC. Equivalent block sizes (areas in 2D and volumes in 3D) and their distributions are obtained from the numerical simulation. Correlation analysis is then performed to relate the block sizes predicted by the empirical equation to those obtained from the numerical model simulation. The results support the concept of equivalent block size proposed by Cai et al. (2004, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41(1), 3–19).     

Determination of in situ stresses from excavation-induced stress changes

The state of in situ stress described by the magnitudes and orientations of the principal stresses is an important design parameter for the construction of underground openings. Conventional methods of in situ stress determination, such as overcoring, only provide information for a small domain and are usually very costly. In this paper, a method for field stress determination in a volume of rock that is representative for an underground opening is presented. This method requires the measurement of stress changes induced by the excavation of an opening (tunnel). The best fit stress field is then determined by comparing measured and predicted stress changes. An error function is defined between the two sets of stress changes and the best-fit solution is obtained by error minimization. The methodology and its applicability are explained by an example of a circular opening for which closed form solutions are available. Application of this method to a case study has shown great potential. The back-analyzed stresses are extremely close to those determined by a large number of overcoring tests. Compared with conventional techniques of stress determination, this new method is superior in that: